1. Hiran Region Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2.  FSNAU Food security field analyst of Hiran was able to collect data directly from the field in Mataban areas.  The information from other areas that could not be accessed directly due to insecurity was collected through teleconferencing with enumerators, key informants/focus groups Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods  Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire wood, building sticks, fodder); main sources of food: own production, purchase and food gifts  Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own production and purchases Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Iincome 1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: own production, purchase and food gifts  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goats

4.  Overall Statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of Hiran region. Satellite imagery indicated cumulative rainfall (October-December 2010) of 0- 20% of the normal.  Start of Season: No effective rainfall commenced  Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very light showers with no impact on livelihoods were received in localized pockets of Beletweyne riverine livelihood. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions (NDVI)

6. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity  Civil Security Situation: Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region further deteriorated security situation. Beletweyne and its surroundings are the epicentre of the current conflict. Regrouping and militia build-up in the region likely to cause another large confrontation  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Human death and injuries Trade disruptions Increased IDPs due to civil insecurity Restricted humanitarian interventions Outmigration of business and traders, negatively impacting food availability and job opportunity of poor households

7. Regional Cereal Production by District Agriculture Districts Deyr 2010/11 Production in MT Total Cereals (MT) Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr ‘09/10 Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Belet Weyne 1286018819%8%13% Bulo Burto 1055015526%7%12% Jalalaqsi 904013039%9%20% Hiraan Deyr 2011 Total 32315047324%8%14%

8. Agriculture Trends in Regional Cereal Production Deyr Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

9. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos 1. The farmers are considerably benefitting from crop fodder price increase which is 200% (10,000 to 30,000 SoSh/bundle)higher same month last year (Dec’09), FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 2. Average sorghum crop – irrigated. Beletweyne, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 1 2 1 3

10. Deyr 2010 local cereal flow: Cereals come from Bay (sorghum), Shabelle including Banadir (maize) and Qalafe (Ethiopian side), though the supply reduced following the crop failure in the regions. Agriculture Regional Cereal Flow

11. Agriculture Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily Labour Wage Rates Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Red Sorghum) Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate (Beletweyn market) Factors Influencing: Sorghum prices: Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region as a result of sorghum harvest failure. Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow Labour rates: High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas into main towns and riverine after the crop harvest failure in agropastoral livelihoods

12. Agriculture Regional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Daily Labour Rate & Red Sorghum Factors Influencing ToT: High sorghum prices. Decrease of labour wage rates due to low demand and high supply of labour.

13. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Deyr 2010/11 Water availability is average in agro pastoral and riverine livelihood zones and very poor in Hawd and Southern Inland Pastoral due to complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 seasonal rainfall performances. Very poor pasture condition in all livelihoods. Very poor livestock body condition and high livestock death in all LZs Abnormal migration to Galgadud, Somali Region of Ethiopia for safe place, good pasture and food aid. Normal migration to riverine areas sharing the limited resources which may create natural resource conflict.

14. Livestock Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding (Jan – June ’11) Trends in Herd Size ( June‘2011) LivelihoodsLivestock species Hiran All Lzs: Camel: Low Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Low All Lzs: Camel: Low Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats : Low All Lzs: Very low for all species All Lzs: Camel: Low Cattle: Low Sh/goats: Low Pastoral- Hawd Camel: decreased (45% of the Baseline by June ‘11) Sheep/Goat: decreased (61% of the Baseline by June ‘11) SI Pastoral and Agro- pastoral Camel: decreased (44% of the Baseline by June ‘11) Cattle : decreased (33% of the Baseline by June ’11) Sheep/Goat: decreased (63% of the Baseline by June ’11)

15. Livestock Trends in local goat prices Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Factors Influencing: L. Goat prices: Poor livestock body condition Low demand of livestock after the end of Hajj period. Civil insecurity ToT goat to sorghum: High sorghum prices Poor livestock body condition Less saleable animals in the region Decreased livestock prices Low demand on livestock demand after the end of Hajj season Regional Trends in ToT: local goat to cereal (red sorghum)

16. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Poor camel body condition. Teedaan,Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ‘10 Poor goat body conditions. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec ’10 Poor cattle body conditions in Agropastoral. Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor pasture conditions as a result of complete failure of Deyr 2010/11 rains in all livelihoods leading to poor livestock body condition and livestock deaths. The situation is likely to deteriorate further in the coming harsh Jilaal season, thus the anticipated outcome will be worse than it is now.

17. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Markets Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) High local cereal prices The fluctuation of exchange rate (SoSh/USD) Civil insecurity – high tension restricting trade movements Increased illegal taxes Increased reliance on imported cereals following the 6 -7 consecutive seasons of crop failures

18. RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec’ 10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 HiranN/A – due to insecruity Hiran Riverine (N=1100) 10 sites GAM MUAC of 17.7%, SAM MUAC of 3.5% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10) Hiran Agro-pastoral (N=1100) 10 sites GAM MUAC of 17.1%, SAM MUAC of 2.9% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10) Hiran Pastoral (N=1100) 10 sites GAM MUAC of 14.7%, SAM MUAC of 2.5% (FSNAU & partners, Dec’ 10) High (>10%) but declining trends in the last 3-4 months High (>10%) and stable trends in the last 6 months Low (<10%) and stable trend due to closure of HF’s in June ‘10 N/A Overall Aggravating Factors: Civil insecurity - limited humanitarian space; displacement associated with civil insecurity Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, malaria and whooping cough- in B/Burti and 3 other districts Taxation Limited access to health centers Limited medical supplies in the area Increasing number of new IDPs Overall Mitigating Factors: Income from sale of fodder and some labor opportunities among the riverine Improved livestock condition for pastoralists and milk availability after Gu Social support Hiran Riverine – Likely Very Critical –no improvement from Gu ‘10 Hiran Agro- pastoral – Likely Very Critical – no improvement from Gu ‘10 Hiran Pastoral Likely Critical – improvement from Very Critical in Gu ‘10, but high risk to deteriorate Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

19. Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010 Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates

20. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Agro-Pastoral 100% Poor & 50% Middle in HE, 50% Middle in AFLC, deterioration trend; Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in HE, 25% poor in AFLC and 50% M in AFLC; Hawd 50% Poor in HE, 50% P in AFLC; Riverine 100% Poor & 75% Middle in HE and 25% M in AFLC. Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in all Livelihoods Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Water Access: adequate in riverine (unsafe), poor to very poor in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods Destitution/Displacement: Concentrated and increasing Coping: Distress strategies and increasing in agro-pastoral and Pastoral LZ, but slight improving in riverine LZ, Livelihood Assets: accelerated and critical depletion or loss of assets Main Contributing Factors:  6 - 7 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to:  Consecutive seasons of crop failures  Poor pasture/browse conditions leading to deterioration of body condition for all livestock species  High food and non-food prices, high fodder prices  Significant reduction of household income; coping through collection of bush products, labour migration to riverine (agropastoralists) and urban centers, limited remittances, social support MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

21. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE Hiraan Region Affected District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Belet Wayne/Matabaan135,58026,00069,00030,00069,000 Bulo Burto/Maxaas88,67316,00045,00023,00045,000 Jalalaqsi36,4456,00015,00010,00015,000 SUB-TOTAL260,69848,000129,00063,000129,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE177,000192,000 Hiraan Region and Affected Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral25,7603,000 4,0003,000 Hiran Agro-Past136,72738,00085,00038,00085,000 Hiran riverine32,633029,0004,00025,000 Southern Inland Past61,5117,0008,00017,00012,000 Destitute Pastoralists4,06704,0000 SUB-TOTAL260,69848,000129,00063,000129,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE177,000192,000

22. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 2010/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 2010/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 2010/11 Hiraan Belet Weyne/Matabaan 36,4695,00015,00055 Bulo Burto/Maxaas 22,36509,00040 Jalalaqsi 10,27904,00039 Sub-Total 69,1135,00028,00048

23. The End