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© Offshore Wind A big opportunity? GA-EMA Conferences 22 October 2014
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© 1. Global context of Renewables 2. Offshore Wind Markets Concepts and key figures Risks 3. Conclusions 2
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© 1. Global context of Renewables 2. Offshore Wind Markets Concepts and key figures Risks 3. Conclusions 3
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© Global Power Capacity Outlook Continuous growth expected… 4 Source: IHS
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© Global Energy Production Outlook Increasing weight of renewables… 5
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© 1. Global context of renewables 2. Offshore Wind Markets Concepts and key figures Risks 3. Conclusions 6
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© Offshore Wind Markets Global installed capacity status 7 Status in 2014: 0 GW Target for 2020: 3 GW Status in 2014: 7.3 GW Target for 2020: 38-49 GW Status in 2014: 0.5 GW Target for 2020: 30 GW Status in 2014: 0 GW Target for 2020: 2.5 GW Europe leads offshore wind development, with more than 90% of projects pipeline. By 2030, Europe will account for more than 70% of total installed capacity,
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© Offshore Wind Markets UK and Germany leading the path in Europe 8 Total Operational7.3 GW Under construction 4.9 GW 2020 Target38 – 49 GW 0.6 1.8-2.0 3.7 1.9 8.5 - 13 0.3 0.2 4.5-6.0 0.2 0.1 3.0 0.6 1.5 6 - 8 1.3 0.4 2.3-2.5 0 0 6.0 0 0
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© History of offshore wind More than 20 years of growth 9 Technology viability System knowledge Developing concepts Developing relationships 1991-2009 Pioneering Phase 2009-2017 Industrialising offshore 2017- Large scale GW offshore power plants Stimulating competition Applying lessons R&D & demonstration Scale o sourcing o knowledge base Cost efficiency o technology development o installation and O&M concepts o value chain engineering Component reliability Apply R&D & demonstration o New concepts o New materials o New technology
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© Offshore Wind sites Challenging locations 10 Offshore wind projects are installed further from shore and in deeper waters
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© Offshore wind Main components of a project 11
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© Offshore wind Size and Logistics 12
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© Offshore Wind Development Cycle typical timeline 13 Opportunity Assessment Concept Phase Refinement Phase Execution Phase Operations Phase Gate 1Gate 2Gate 3Gate 4 Identify site Evaluate potential Secure development rights Concept selection Site characterisation surveys Secure “buildable” consent Confirm project economics Detailed site surveys Front End Engineering Design Establish executable contracts Secure finance Discharge consent conditions Construct wind farm Establish O&M base Project Progress (2 - 3 years)(1 - 2 years)(2 - 4 years)(25 – 50 years)
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© Offshore Wind Economics Key figures 14 DEVEX EIA Geophysical Geotechnical Wind Assesment … CAPEX Supply of elements Installation Comissioning … OPEX Operation Maintenance Repairment Transmision … 70-140 k€/MW3-4 m€/MW40-80 €/MWh LCOE 160 €/MWh (*) (*) Weighted-average levelised cost of energy value of projects financed in 2013
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© Offshore wind Key Risks Ornithology Marine Mammals Commercial Fishing Permitting Regulatory changes Cost Reduction Capital Requirements Commercial Grid Connection Supply Chain Constrains Asset Performance Execution 15
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© Innovation From all aspects of offshore wind 16 Innovation Turbines Foundations Cables Logistics Installation Operation & Maintenance Procurement strategy Financing
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© Innovation Floating substructures 17
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© Repsol Offshore Wind Portfolio Global project info 18 Inch CapeMoray FirthBeatrice Moray Firth Beatrice Scotland Inch Cape
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© Repsol Offshore Wind Portfolio Met Mast 19
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© 1. Global context of renewables 2. Offshore Wind Markets Concepts and key figures Risks 3. Conclusions 20
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© Conclusions Offshore Wind 21 ●Installed capacity is expected to grow during this decade, mainly in Europe, although not as much as estimated 3-4 years ago ●Interest in the offshore sector continues to grow, with investor commitments, policy support and technological innovations driving the industry forward ●Growing cost concerns, due to deeper waters and further from shore, need to be addressed for offshore to become cost-competitive ●More competition has to be achieved at the supply chain level in order to allow cost reduction and standardization ●Offshore wind presents significant risks at all stages of the project (Development, Construction and Operation) but can be mitigated through proper project management
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© Thank you © Pablo Gómez-Acebo Head of Renewables Business Development pgomezacebom@repsol.com
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