1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Update Kyle L. Olsen North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Beijing - May 2006

2. We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Hull loss accident rate

3. We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Hull loss accident rate Departures, Millions

4. We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Hull loss accidents per year Hull loss accident rate* Airplanes in service 32,495 2021 Departures, Millions 18,621 2001 Boeing 12,351 Business as usual Reductions possible with continued Industry effort *Accident, Airplanes in Service and Departure data are estimated through 31 December 2004

5. Worldwide Airline Hull Loss Accidents Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 Total Hull Losses = 177 Number of Hull Losses 73 27 12 Fuel Exhaustion Controlled flight into terrain Loss of control in flight Landing Refused takeoff 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 On- Ground Misc. 9 Landing, Loss of Control, and CFIT Hull Losses 120 or 67%

6. Worldwide Airline Fatalities Number of fatal accidents (78 total) 2122 2221 Number of Fatalities 1,999 1,599 420 231 339 225 Controlled flight into terrain Loss of control in flight Mid- Air collision StructureIn- Flight fire Fuel tank explosion Total fatalities – 5,828 CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities 3,598 or 62 % Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 15 136 Landing

7. In the U.S., our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) “Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%” “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety” “Improve Safety Worldwide”

8. Historical Worldwide Fatality Risk (1987 - 2001) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP SCF-NP ICE Midair FIRE-NI FUEL RI ARC RE USOS WSTRW ADRM OTHER-BIRD LOC-G Fatality Risk Excluding all security events

9. In Response Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were combined into CAST Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed In place and fully supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition - Commercial Aviation Safety Team, “CAST”

10. CAST Organizational Structure

11. CAST Goals Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

12. * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** EASA IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

13. Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

14. HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Passenger Interference CABIN SAFETY IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS GENERAL AVIATION Loss of Control Weather Survivability Aeronautical Decisionmaking Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and Landing COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Weather Uncontained Engine Failures Runway Incursion Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursions Safer Skies Turbulence

15. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) 20072020 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements Completed

16. CAST Safety Plan 31 Completed Safety Enhancements Safety Culture Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP) Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

17. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) 16 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects) Precision Approaches (additional projects) 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

18. CAST Implementation Status

19. 31 6 9 1 47 Safety Enhancements 31 Complete 16 Underway

20. CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 1 15.1 2 15.0 3.5 4 1.1 5.4 6 7.9 7 7.9 8 7.9 9.8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13.8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16.7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 24 10.6 25 6.0 26 2.3 27 8.8 28 5.0 29 1.9 30 2.8 31 12.2 32 0 34 0 39 0 40 0 46 1.6 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 53 2.7 52 0 51 0 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84.8 85 1.2 Status Chart COMPLETEON TRACKIN QUESTIONLATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level Complete except for measurement

21. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Europe 0.7 China 0.5 Middle East 2.7 Africa 12.3 Asia 1.7 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available World 0.74*

22. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Europe 0.7 China 0.5 Middle East 2.7 Africa 12.3 Asia 1.7 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 CAST 47 SEs 30 complete 17 in work 73% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR JSSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction ASET Just forming up COSCAP CIS Just starting COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available World 0.74*

23. CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 1 15.1 2 15.0 3.5 4 1.1 5.4 6 7.9 7 7.9 8 7.9 9.8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13.8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16.7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 24 10.6 25 6.0 26 2.3 27 8.8 28 5.0 29 1.9 30 2.8 31 12.2 32 0 34 0 39 0 40 0 46 1.6 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 53 2.7 52 0 51 0 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84.8 85 1.2 Status Chart COMPLETEON TRACKIN QUESTIONLATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level Complete except for measurement

24. Precision-Like Approach Implementation “21 st Century Instrument Approaches” CAST Safety Enhancements SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8

25. Worldwide Fleet Classic airplanes – typically equipped with electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS)) Classic airplanes – typically equipped with electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS)) Standard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS) Standard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS) Advanced airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities) Advanced airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities)

26. Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 On NARAST Safety Plan On NARAST Safety Plan SE-3, Vertical Angles SE-3, Vertical Angles – Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for Operators for Conducting Constant decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non- precision approaches. (November 2004)

27. Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 Not on NARAST Plan: Not on NARAST Plan: – SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope Indicators (VGSI) at runway ends – SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at airports where older air carrier aircraft operate – SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and charting specifications for approach charts.

28. Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 continued Not on NARAST Plan: Not on NARAST Plan: – SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance allowing reduced landing minima – SE-8, Define the parameters for future installation of the xLS (laterally and vertically guided approach path) to runway ends not serviced by Instrument Landing System (ILS)

30. Implementation is Essential

31. Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2004 DateOperatorAircraftLocationFatalPhase 3 JanFLASH AIRLINES737-300SHARM EL-SHEIK, EGYPT148CLIMB 5 JanAUSTRIAN A/LF-70MUNCHEN, GERMANY0APPROACH 1 MarPAKISTAN A/LA300JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA0TAKEOFF 4 MarAZOV AVIA CO.IL-76BAKU, AZERBAIJAN3TAKEOFF 2 AprAIR MEMPHIS707-320CAIRO, EGYPT0TAKEOFF 28 AprCENTURION CARGODC-10FBOGOTA, COLOMBIA0LANDING 18 MaySILK WAY AIRLINEIL-76UMURQI, CHINA7TAKEOFF 21 JulAERO CALIFORNIADC-9-14MEXICO CITY, MEXICO0TAKEOFF 11 AugAIR GUINEE EXPRE737-200SIERRA LEONE0TAKEOFF 28 AugTRANSAIR CARGOCaravelleGISENYI, RWANDA0LANDING 8 OctBIMAN BANGLEDESHF-28SYLHET, BANGLEDESH0LANDING 14 OctMK AIRLINES747-200FHALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA7TAKEOFF 7 Nov AIR ATLANTA 747-200FDUBAI, UAE0 TAKEOFF 28 Nov KLM 737-400BARCELONA, SPAIN0 LANDING 30 NovLION AIR MD-80SOLO CITY, INDONESIA26 LANDING

32. Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (> 60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2005 DateOperatorAircraftLocationPhaseFatal 8 JanuaryAerorepublicaMD-80Cali, ColombiaLanding0 24 JanuaryAtlas AirB-747-200Dusseldorf, GermanyLanding0 3 FebruaryAir West CargoIL-76KhartoumApproach7 3 FebruaryKam AirB-737-200Kabul, AfghanistanApproach104 19 MarchRace Cargo AirlineB-707-300Entebbe, UgandaApproach0 23 MarchAirline TransportIL-76Mwanza, TanzaniaTakeoff8 7 AprilICARO AirF-28Coca, EquadorLanding0 20 AprilSaha AirB-707-300Tehran, IranLanding3 19 JuneMahfooz AviationB-707Addis Ababa, EthiopiaLanding0 1 JulyBiman BangladeshDC-10Chittagong, BangladeshLanding0 2 AugustAir FranceA-340Toronto, CanadaLanding0 14 AugustHELIOS AirwaysB-737-300Grammatikos, GreeceEnroute121 16 AugustWest CaribbeanMD-82Machiques, VenezuelaEnroute160 23 AugustTANS Peru AirlinesB-737-200Pucallpa, PeruApproach45 5 SeptMandala AirlinesB-737-200Medan-Polonia,IndonesiaTakeoff104 22 OctoberBellview AirlinesB-737-200Lissa, NigeriaClimb117 31 OctoberMIBA AviationB-727Kindu, DR CongoLanding0 11 NovemberRoyal Airlines CargoIL-76Khak-eShahidan, AfghanistanApproach8 10 DecemberSosoliso AirlinesDC-9Port Harcort, NigeriaLanding109

33. Safety Enhancement Indicator 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) 4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7- 11,18) Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Continuous reduction in selected metrics Continuous reduction in selected metrics 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3) Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates Continuous reduction in altitude busts Continuous reduction in altitude busts 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals Safety Metrics Examples

34. Moving Forward

35. All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% TotalCFIT LOC-I SCF-PP SCF-NP ICE Midair FIRE-NI FUEL RI ARC RE USOS WSTRW ADRM OTHER-BIRD Portion of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

36. Safety Plan Development Accident JSATS Case studies Accident JSITS Case studies Safety Enhancements Incident Analysis Process JIMDAT Review Emerging Risk Changing Risk Develop Enhancements & Metrics Aviation System Changes Present In Master Factors Yes No Demographic Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging Identify Hazards Identify Factors Master Contributing Factors 11-5-03 CAST-051R FAST Hazards CAST Plan Recommended Plan Revision Performance To Plan Review Non- Performance Information Metrics

37. Our Goal: Make Aviation Safer by Reducing the Risk of an Accident

38. Thank you