1. James J. Hughes Ph.D. Executive Director, Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies Public Policy Studies, Trinity College, Hartford CT James.Hughes@trincoll.edu

2. Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014 Significant decline since 1960

4.  Paid labor force has declined since 2000  Jobless recovery since 2008  Aging of population and technological unemployment

5.  Crashing fertility rates  Rising proportion of retirees  More attempting to stay in jobs

6.  All jobs are potentially automatable, done cheaper and better than by human workers ICT makes it more profitable to invest in machines than to hire workers

7. Probability of Computerisation Recreational therapists 0.003 Dentists 0.004 Personal trainers 0.007 Clergy 0.008 Chemical engineers 0.02 Editors 0.06 Fire fighters 0.17 Actors 0.37 Health technologists 0.40 Economists 0.43 Commercial pilots 0.55 Machinists 0.65 Word processors/typists 0.81 Estate agents 0.86 Technical writers 0.89 Retail sales assistants 0.92 Accountants 0.94 Telemarketers 0.99 Assumes that 50% of jobs are safe since they require: Perception and manipulation Creative intelligence Social intelligence But AI breakthroughs will likely crack these barriers as well

8.  ICT reduces number of workers in supply chains  3D manufacturing set to accelerate trend

9.  Benefits of productivity not going to workers Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

10.  Benefits going to corporate profits (r>g) Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies 2014

11.  Decline of labor share fastest in automating sectors (14 top industrial economies) Majority of new jobs that are added are low wage

12.  Redistribution of wealth to the top 5%

13. Policy makers and economists on both sides assume a return to “full employment”  Higher minimum wages, paid leave etc. will accelerate job replacement in the sectors still adding jobs  Investment in education/re-training, but for what careers?  Cutting “entitlements” & safety net or deregulation will not create employment, just force the desperate into a losing race to the bottom  Expanding safety net (e.g. Obamacare) will encourage more retirement, discouraged worker drop-out  Pro-growth innovation will destroy jobs faster

14.  Protecting Employment  Re-distributing Employment  Creating Employment  Enhancing Human Workers  Techno-Utopian Proposals  Basic Income Guarantee

15.  Machine bans will be proposed  Agricultural subsidies & protectionism  NJ’s ban on self- serve gasoline  High costs  Lower quality and convenience  Reduce competitiveness

16.  Longer subsidized educations  Job-sharing  Administrative costs  Wage loss, or increased cost (faster automation)  More vacations, or a shorter work week  Higher costs, reduced productivity  Lower mandatory retirement ages  Loss of skilled workers  Higher old-age dependency ratio

17.  Most public sector jobs are also automatable  Public or subsidized make-work jobs that are easily automated are politically unpopular  If income taxes decline, expanding public employment may be impossible  Current recession has seen shrinking govt payrolls  Dunleavy & Carrera Growing the Productivity of Government Services (2013) Public Sector Jobs

18.  US and European militaries have been shrinking  U.S. Army projects that military robotics will displace a quarter of combat soldiers by 2030

19.  Could we ever catch up to machines?  Won’t enhanced workers displace even more unenhanced workers?

20.  So far, education has determined who is most vulnerable  But majority of unemployed have attended college  And un- and underemployment of college grads is rising

21.  Post-scarcity super-abundance  Free molecular manufacturing  Universal stock ownership in post- Singularity stock market  Charity from the super-rich  Time gap between immiseration and mass access  Doesn’t address inequality, still requires redistribution  Doesn’t address intellectual property rights in “free” stuff

22.  Tom Paine: Annual payments should be made "to every person, rich or poor…in lieu of the natural inheritance, which, as a right, belongs to every man…”  Expanding social wage  Universal basic income guarantee  Economies need consumers even more than workers Tom Paine

23.  Poverty level negative income tax = $2 trillion (twice cost of current means-tested income programs)  Increase progressivity of the income & wealth taxes  But with shrinking employment and rising dependency ratio…  Carbon taxes  Consumption taxes  Public ownership of resources (Alaskan citizen’s dividend)