1. Democratization in Asia Causes, Processes, and Consequences

2. Outline 3rd wave of democratization Causes –economic –cultural Processes Consequences –economy –security

3. Waves of Democratization ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”

4. The First Two Waves A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926 A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942 A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964 A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975

5. The Third Wave Started in Portugal and Spain in mid- 1970s Spread to South America from late 1970s to early 1980s Reached Asia in late 1980s Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980s South Africa 1990

6. The Third Wave

7. Causes of Regime Change

8. Economic Explanation? Almost all rich countries have democratic institutions

9. Economic Variable Economic development dispersion of resources economic pluralism social pluralism political pluralism

10. Economic Variable Economic development middle class demand for democracy elite bargaining political accommodation

11. Economic Variable Economic development rising expectations economic difficulties popular discontent regime crises

12. Cultural Explanation? Are Islam and the ``Asian values” obstacles to democracy?

13. Support for Democracy World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said a democratic system is a ``very good” or ``fairly good” way of governing this country Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually rank relatively high

16. Support for Strong Leader The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said ``having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections” would be ``very good” or ``fairly good” Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually have relatively low support for this authoritarian option

18. Scenarios of Change Preservation of authoritarian regime Gradual transition to –authoritarian pluralism Gradual and moderate liberalization Gradual and moderate democratization Radical transition toward –a new authoritarian regime –a democracy

19. Regime Changes Non-democracy Democracy State Crises Preservation Regime Change Non-democracy Democracy

20. Top-down Processes From top down –Conflict of interest –Elite competition –Gradual transition Problematic implications: –democratization is easy –skillful elite can establish democracy in any setting

21. Bottom-up Processes From bottom up –Popular demand –Political movement –Radical revolution

22. Consequences Does democracy promote economic growth? Does democracy promote security?