1. Jordan Hersch jh6049a@american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Research Question & Research hypothesis Research Question Does Internet access within a country lead to more Democratic societies? As Internet access increases, does Democracy increase as well? Does a country need a certain amount of technology (Phones/Computers) before the Internet has an impact? Research hypothesis/ hypotheses H0= Internet access has no affect on Democracy H1= More internet access leads to more Democracy

3. Literature Review The Democratic Effects of the Internet, 1994-2003. A Cross-National Inquiry of 152 Countries Theory: Higher internet diffusion will lead to higher democratic growth. [Jacob Groshek (2009)] Findings : The research hypothesis was accepted in this study. They found a moderate but statistically significant impact of internet diffusion on democracy rates. In countries where steps toward democracy were already taking place it had a much larger effect than in countries with no democratic efforts. Also it was seen as one of the best indicators of a strong democracy in countries that were already democratic. Do “Liberation Technologies” Change the Balance of Power between Repressive States and Civil Society? A Thesis Presented to the Faculty Of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Theory: At least one of the predictors of Internet use, Mobile phone use, or phone use, are statistically significant predictors of the number of protests.[Patrick Meier (2011)] Findings : The results are only statistically significant in countries where a large portion of the population had cell phones. Theoretical and/or empirical gap/s in the existing literature Theoretical gap/s: Analysis of who uses the internet in non-democratic countries in relation to governmental changes Empirical gap/s: There is limited data, partly because the internet is relatively young.

4. VariableMeanStd. DevMinMaxObservations Freedom House overall64.5728.4114.2899.96 N=3230 n=191 Tbar=16.91 Freedom House between27.2214.2899.96 Freedom House within8.4115.85125.89 ITU Internet overall6.6212.78077.23 N=1919 n=188 T=10.21 ITU Internet between7.93.0146.77 ITU Internet within9.87-27.4670.74

5. Data Unit of analysis/study : Countries. N = 191 Source of the data: Democracy levels: Freedom House, Mobile Cellular Phones per Capita : Banks CNTS 2007 Internet use: International Telecommunication Union (ITU) All data sources are considered reliable and are the best available. Dependent variable/s Y is Freedom House Level of Democracy. The democracy levels are standardized to a 0-100 scale, and are interval-ratio Independent Variable X1 is Level of Internet Dispersion – ITU Controls are: Asia, Africa, Ethnic fractionalization

6. Descriptive Statistics Table or/and Graphics ITU- Internet Diffusion The mean is relatively low – 6.62% average global internet diffusion. The min is 0, and the max is 77.24. Freedom House Index Mean = 64.57. This has increased over time. It is credible as it is very close to the Polity IV Democracy Index mean.

7. Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Freedom House IndexITU–Internet diffusion mean64.576.62 p5071.4.95 sd28.4112.78 iqr57.125.71 min14.280 max99.9677.24 cv.441.93

8. Dependent Variable: Democracy Scores

9. Mean of Democracy levels, Mean of Internet diffusion Mean Democracy vs. Mean Log Internet diffusion

10. OLSAsiaAfricaYear Fixed Effect Full Fixed Effect Model Fixed Effect Model Random Effect Internet Diffusion 4.871*** (0.000) 4.028*** (0.000) 3.883*** (0.000) 7.429*** (0.000) 0.567** (0.000) 0.816*** (0.000) 0.896*** (0.000) Asia-4.749*** (0.000) Ethnic fractionaliza tion -30.13*** (0.000) -25.31*** (0.00) Africa-5.210** (0.00) Constant66.88*** (0.000) 82.29*** (0.000) 80.59*** (0.000) 107.8*** (0.000) 31.03*** (0.000) 67.84*** (0.000) 64.75*** (0.000) r2r2 0.2430.316 0.4270.9500.069 chi 2 140 N18421817 1842

11. Freedom House Fixed Effects Freedom House Random Effects Research Hypothesis Withinr 2 = 0.0693 (0.000) N = 1842 Withinr 2 = 0.0693 (0.000) N = 1842 Reject H0, There is a weak correlation Betweenr 2 = 0.4612 (0.000) N = 1842 Betweenr 2 = 0.4612 (0.000) N = 1842 Reject H0, There is a moderate correlation Overallr 2 = 0.2430) N = 1842 Overallr 2 = 0.2430 (0.000) N = 1842 Reject H0, There is a weak correlation

12. Findings & Policy Implications of the research Findings: Did you accept your research hypothesis? Using the Freedom House Index of democracy we were able to reject the Null Hypothesis and find a moderate relationship within, and a weak relationship between and overall. For Asia and Africa and ethnic fractionalization there is statistical significance. What are the policy implications of your findings? Spreading Internet access can lead to higher democracy levels