1. A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

2. The Rise of Demography Demography often viewed as passive by social scientists/historians Demographic Transition Uneven Ethnic differentials have had political ramifications Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover? Are religious populations more resistant to transition than secular? Is liberal democracy and mixed capitalism the 'End of History' for mankind? (Fukuyama 1992)

3. Demography and Politics? Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. Mormon church: 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20 th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12- point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election Ethnic conflicts: Quebec, N. Ireland, Fiji, etc

4. Secularisation and Religious Fertility "1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless, 2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004) Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

6. Data Based on 1981, 1990 and 2000 EVS, and 2004 ESS 10 Western European countries, in fixed proportions. 4 Scandinavian-Protestant, 4 mainly Catholic, 2 mixed EVS-ESS continuity on children and attendance only

10. Fertility and Religiosity "Religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts…[heavily Mormon] Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49…Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction" – Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)

18. Conclusion: Fertility After marital status, church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility in Europe Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries In secular (Protestant) countries, church attendance insignificant, but religiosity significantly predicts fertility Future Research: USA, European Muslims, Islamic world

22. European Attendance

23. Conclusion: Secularisation Variation in Patterns of Secularisation Europe has secularised in terms of church attendance, but less so in terms of religious feeling In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster; less religious (mainly Protestant) countries may have ceased to secularise Religious fertility may lead to religious revival c. 2050 in western Europe if apostasy trends continue to flatten out USA and much of the developing world has not secularised European Muslims show less tendency toward apostasy than Christians 'End of History' thesis far from clear

24. http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html

27. Religious

28. Early Secular

29. Late Secular