1. Presentation on Global Employment Trends 2003/2004 Dorothea Schmidt – Economist, Employment Trends Team Employment Strategy Department International Labour Office, Genevawww.ilo.org/trends

2. Agenda for today I. The Production and Publication of Global Employment Trends II. Global and Regional Employment Trends and Outlook III. Summary and Conclusions

3. II. The Production and Publication of Global Employment Trends

4. How do we know about global employment trends? National Source –Labour Offices –Local Newspapers –Personal Contacts –Universities –Etc. ILO sources ILO sources –KILM –LMIL –Statistical Office –Regional Offices –Specialists within the ILO –Etc. Other sources –World Bank –IMF –OECD –WTO –Regional sources (ADB) –Newspapers –Magazines –Journals –Etc. I. The Production and Publication of Global Employment Trends

5. What happens if we still don’t have information on specific countries? The Global Employment Trends Model The Global Employment Trends Model –Estimating missing labour market indicators based on other information available like poverty, regional information, recent conflicts, historical development…  Basis for the regional and world estimates

6. How are the results of our research brought to the public? Global Employment Trends (every January) Global Employment Trends (every January) Special Issues of the GET (on women, on youth) Special Issues of the GET (on women, on youth) First Part of World Employment Report (September 2004) First Part of World Employment Report (September 2004) First Part of Key Indicators of the Labour Market (September 2005) First Part of Key Indicators of the Labour Market (September 2005) Seminars Seminars Requests from constituents, governments and all kinds of institutions Requests from constituents, governments and all kinds of institutions

7. II. Global and Regional Employment Trends and Outlook

8. What is working poverty? A concept to judge on the importance of employment for poverty reduction A concept to judge on the importance of employment for poverty reduction Definition: Somebody who works but does not earn enough to lift himself and his family above the 1 US Dollar a day poverty line. Definition: Somebody who works but does not earn enough to lift himself and his family above the 1 US Dollar a day poverty line.

9. Total Unemployment Rates, both sexes, latest years Source : KILM 2003

10. 1. Latin America and the Caribbean Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 9.0 %; in 2003: 8.0 % Female unemployment rate 2003: 10.1 % Employment to population ratio 2003: 59.3 % Labour force participation rate: 64.5%, for every one hundred economically active men there are 64 economically active women Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.3 %; 1998-2003: 2.0 % Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 16.6 % (female: 20.8 %, male: 14.0 % Others: Informal economy: Employment in the informal sector slowed down in the early 90s but grew in 2001/2002 Education: Speed of improvement has slowed down Working poor rate: 15 per cent

11. Performance indices (1993=100) Employment-to-population ratio Unemployment rate Real GDP Employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate and real GDP, Caribbean, Central America and South America, Index 1993=100, 1993-2003 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003

12. Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.2 per cent (after 1.6 per cent in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: just above 7 per cent GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: over 7 per cent, high but not impossible Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - make sure that growth is translated into decent work, which should be seen as one of the major preconditions for future GDP growth. - creating employment in the formal economy - focus on young people

13. 2. East Asia Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 3.1%, in 2003: 3.3% Female unemployment rate 2003: 2.7% Employment to population ratio 2003: 76.6% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 1.3%; 1998-2003: 1.2% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 7.0% (female: 5.8%, male: 8.1%) Others: Working poor rate: 18% of the total number of employed

14. Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 7.1% (after 7.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: no change expected GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment by 2015: around 7% ► high likelihood to achieve the goal Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - focus on high incidence of working poverty - translate growth into decent employment - Get institutional setting right - proceed in educating people and infrastructural investment

15. 3. South-East Asia Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 7.1%, in 2003: 6.3% Female unemployment rate 2003: 6.9% Employment to population ratio 2003: 67.1% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.4%; 1998-2003: 2.6% Youth unemployent rate 2003: total: 16.4% (female: 17.6%, male: 15.5%) Others: Working poor rate: 10% of all people employed

16. Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.5% (after 4.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: no change expected GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment by 2015: over 6% ► some economies have a high chance (including Fiji, Malaysia, Thailand, Viet Nam, others are unlikely to reach the goal Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - youth unemployment - working poverty - structural shifts

17. 4. South Asia Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 4.8%, in 2003: 4.8% Female unemployment rate 2003: 6.2% Employment to population ratio 2003: 57% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.3%; 1998-2003: 2.3% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 13.9% (female: 15.9%, male: 13.0%) Others: high incidence of working poverty (40 %) and informal economy employment (90% in India); strong dependency on agriculture (70% of employment in India)

18. Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 5.8% (after 5.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight increase to 5% GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: over 6%, not impossible Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - low level of education - high dependency on agriculture - high incidence of working poverty - big difference between male and female LFPR

19. 5. Middle East and North Africa Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 11.9%, in 2003: 12.2% Female unemployment rate 2003: 16.5% Employment to population ratio 2003: 46.4% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 3.3%; 1998-2003: 3.1% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 25.6% (female: 31.7%, male: 22.7%) Others: Working poverty rate: 8% Low labour force participation rate for women

20. Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.3% (after 4.4% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: again over 12% GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: 10 per cent ► rather unrealistic Important issues for policy-makers and social partners: - unused female potential - youth unemployment - more openness to trade Improving governance, enhancing the quality of public institutions and enforcing public accountability - Improving governance, enhancing the quality of public institutions and enforcing public accountability

21. 6. Sub Saharan Africa Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 10.8%, in 2003: 10.9% Female unemployment rate 2003: 9.6% Employment to population ratio 2003: 11.8% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.8%; 1998-2003: 2.7% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 21.0% (female: 18.4%, male: 23.1%) Others: - Threat of HIV/AIDS for labour markets - Low levels of education plus brain drain - high incidence of working poverty (over 40 per cent) - high dependency on low productivity agricultural sector

22. Employment outlook for 2004 Expected GDP growth: 4.7% (after 3.6% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight decrease expected to around 10.5% GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: more than three times more than in the last ten years (over 12 per cent) ► very unlikely Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - informal sector employment and working poverty - youth unemployment and brain drain - HIV/AIDS

23. 7. Transition Economies Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 9.4%, in 2003: 9.2% Female unemployment rate 2003: 9.2% Employment to population ratio 2003: 53.8% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: -0.1%; 1998-2003: 0.7% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 18.6% (female: 19.2%, male: 18.1%) Others: equal employment opportunities for women

24. Employment outlook for 2004 Expected GDP growth: 4.1% (after 4.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004:over 9% GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: 4% ► achievable Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - Youth unemployment - Again population in the medium run

25. 8. Industrialized Economies Main characteristics of the labour markets: Unemployment rate in 2002: 6.8%, in 2003: 6.8% Female unemployment rate 2003: 7.0% Employment to population ratio 2003: 56.1% Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 0.8%, 1998-2003: 0.6% Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 13.4% (female: 12.5%, male: 14.1%) Others. Aging population

26. Employment outlook for 2004 Expected GDP growth: 2.8% (after 1.8% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight improvement to 6.6% Important issue for policy-makers and social partners: - Avoid long-lasting jobless growth in the US - Aging population - Youth unemployment

27. II. Summary and Conclusions

28. At the end of 2003… … the number of unemployed people worldwide has reached the new height of 185.9 million. We expect a slight decrease in 2004. … the number of unemployed people worldwide has reached the new height of 185.9 million. We expect a slight decrease in 2004. …there are 550 working poor just as in 2002, 60% of which were women. We expect a slight decrease in 2004. …there are 550 working poor just as in 2002, 60% of which were women. We expect a slight decrease in 2004. …women and young people are suffering most. …women and young people are suffering most. III. Summary and Conclusions

29. Latin America and the Caribbean had…. … the fourth highest unemployment rate of all 8 regions … the fourth highest unemployment rate of all 8 regions …the second highest gap between unemployment rates for male and female …the second highest gap between unemployment rates for male and female …the third highest gender gap in labour force participation rates …the third highest gender gap in labour force participation rates …the fourth highest youth unemployment rate and the second highest female youth unemployment rate …the fourth highest youth unemployment rate and the second highest female youth unemployment rate …the fourth highest share of working poor …the fourth highest share of working poor

30. Unemployment rates: Total, female and youth, by region, 2003, percentage Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003

31. Long term outlook for employment and political challenges: –The developing regions will account for an increased portion of the labour force by 2015. The bulk of new jobs must come in Asia and SSA –Youth unemployment is one of the biggest problems worldwide and needs to be addressed everywhere –Gender inequality will stay on unless policy makers as well as social partners realize the special problems of women in labour markets –Poverty, hand in hand with growing unemployment and underemployment, inhibits employment growth. Because of a lack of education, health and often empowerment, poor people cannot use their own potential to lift themselves and their families out of poverty. Pro-poor policies should be designed to provide this possibility by means of a decent job. –Jobless growth is not affordable in the long run