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Sequent Energy: Going To the Next Level
Douglas N. Schantz President, Sequent Energy Management
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What We Promised for 2003 Deliver EBIT target of $15 MM
Projected 2003 EBIT of $23-25 MM Land third party asset management deal Executed four asset management/ peaking transactions Develop new business systems and controls Openlink Endur System has been selected Build a deeper bench of key commercial and support personnel Office move in mid-2003; IT depth and execution Hired 20 experienced people over the year 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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2002/2003 Comparison 2002 2003 Volumes through Q3 (Bcf/day) 1.29 1.72
Full year EBIT (2003 projected) $ 9.1M $ 23-25 M Number of counterparties, end of Q3 94 157 Number of employees, end of Q3 42 62
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Focus Territory Detroit New York Chicago Atlanta Henry Hub Katy
2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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2003 Price History 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Changes in Supply/Demand Balances
U.S. Gas Balances 2003 Injection Season 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent’s Opportunity Lies in AN Uncertain Future
Source: National Petroleum Council September 2003 Report. 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Vanishing Industry Participants
Top Marketers in 2002 Top Marketers in 2003 Enron BP Mirant Reliant Duke Dynegy Sempra Aquila El Paso AEP Coral Axia (Koch) Conoco Texaco Cook Inlet PG&E Williams Dominion Exxon Mobil BP Mirant Sempra ConocoPhillips Coral (Shell) ChevronTexaco Cinergy Tenaska El Paso Nexen Encana Williams Oneok Reliant Aquila Anadarko Entergy-Koch Amerada Hess Western Gas Resources 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Activities Producer Services Pipeline segmentation
Production Area Storage Market Area Storage End Use Customers Producer Services Pipeline segmentation Locational arbitrage Short- and Long-term Time value arbitrage Pipeline Segmentation Locational arbitrage Asset management Delivered” commodity Delivered Commodity Peaking Services Affiliated customer supply optimization Asset optimization Deal origination 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Top Ten Suppliers At September 30, 2003
Producer Services - Overview Top Ten Suppliers At September 30, 2003 Supplier Exxon/Mobil Dominion MMS Devon BP BG Amerada Hess Occidental Denbury Resources Apache Total Purchases $137.8 Provide basic production area services to small- and large-cap producers Wellhead aggregation Imbalance management Pipeline management Structured pricing products Extract sustainable margin as credit worthy buyer 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Production Area Storage - Overview
Currently leasing 2 Bcf of high-deliverability storage in Southern Louisiana Interconnected with 8 pipelines Full capacity can be withdrawn in 10 days Allows Sequent to arbitrage numerous time spreads available in the market Cash market vs prompt futures Balance of month cash vs prompt futures Prompt futures vs forward futures Pipe to pipe basis arbitrage Peaking sales Distress buys 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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How Sequent Makes Money From Storage
Louisiana Parameters Landry Parish Allen Parish Capacity: Bcf Injection: ,000/d Withdrawal: 200,000/d Term: thru 10/31/04 Acadia Parish Jefferson Davis Parish ANR Tennessee TETCO Florida Gas Texas Gas Columbia Gulf Trunkline Conoco Lafayette Parish Iberia Parish Vermilion Parish Arbitrage Types Cameron Parish Cash market vs. prompt futures Balance of month cash vs. prompt futures Prompt futures vs. forward futures Pipe to pipe basis arbitrage Peaking sales Distress buys Gulf of Mexico Example: Cash market to prompt month arbitrage Cash market = $4.00 Prompt month = $4.40 Sequent buys physical at $4.00 and injects Sequent sell futures at $4.40 .40 spread Injection & storage (.22) cost .18 margin 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Transportation Management - Overview
Currently managing about 1 Bcf/day of firm transportation Contained in asset management agreements Short-term capacity releases from pipelines Allows Sequent to arbitrage many locational spreads available in the market Excess transport Pipeline segmentation Create value through our understanding of the arbitrage opportunities available on the gas pipeline grid 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Transportation Management - Segmentation
Understanding all capacity entitlements is a critical component to successful optimization efforts. Zone 6 Pipeline Transco Path South Texas to New York (Zone 1 to Zone 6) Zone 5 Zone 4 Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone 1 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Delivered Commodity - Overview
Mid–marketing Expanding standardized product offering to customer base Trading Active day and intra-day trading Larger bid-offer spreads Focus is on portfolio optimization, not speculation 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Market Demand for Sequent’s Products and Services
Municipal Utilities Large Industrials LDC’s Power Generators Pipelines Commodity Sales X Asset Management Contract Restructuring 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Asset Management - Overview
Currently have asset management agreements in place with four non-affiliated utilities Some agreements include managing the supply Value is created by monetizing storage and transport assets 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Gas Assets Managed* Transport MDQ Dth/Day Storage MSQ, Dth
Cove Point , ,000 Sonat , ,200,000 ANR ,000 11,300,000 Columbia Gas 229, ,050,000 Columbia Gulf , Dominion 114, ,500,000 Transco ,000 11,670,000 Tennessee , ,900,000 East Tennessee 46, *Does not include assets managed for industrials and municipal utilities or assets acquired for Sequent’s own account 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Asset Management – Load Duration Curve Example
Obligation Serve all load on a firm basis under any weather condition. Opportunity Monetize all upstream assets when not required to serve LDC load. 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Peaking Sales - Overview
Currently serving two peaking agreements that provide delivered commodity options Demand charges paid Sequent uses excess storage and transport available from utilities to back the service Value is created when better sourcing alternatives are utilized 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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New Origination - Overview
Embarking on strategy to accumulate earnings accretive products and services Asset management agreements Contract purchases from exiting merchants Peaking transactions Structured commodity sales Transactions are valued intrinsically; extrinsic optionality is an upside Expect to close origination transactions per year 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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New Origination - Intrinsic & Extrinsic Value Description
Definitions: Intrinsic value is transportation and storage value that can be readily hedged in a forward market. Extrinsic Value is the transportation and storage value that cannot be readily hedged in a forward market. Forward market conditions and cash market conditions dictate these opportunities. Intrinsic Extrinsic Transportation Management excess transport segmenting option to strand transport and purchase delivered supply Storage time spread futures to futures arbitrage cash to futures arbitrage 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Customer Relationships Credit Worthy Counterparty
Details Are Important to Our Customers and To Us Operational Expertise Flexible Product Offering Customer Relationships Credit Worthy Counterparty Risk Processes 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Energy Management Counterparty Exposures by
S&P Equivalent Credit Rating S&P Equivalent Credit Rating 11/10/03 % AAA 9.90 4% AAA Group AA+ 3.90 2% AA 2.46 1% AA- 17.97 7% AA Group 24.33 10% A+ 12.15 5% A 31.41 12% A- 39.69 16% A Group 83.25 33% BBB+ 47.05 19% BBB 67.75 26% BBB- 15.56 6% BBB Group 130.36 51% BB+ 0.96 0% BB 4.70 BB Group 5.66 CCC+ 0.01 CCC Group Total 253.51 100% 111 Counterparties with $ of exposure Top 20 represent 61% of this exposure Average portfolio credit rating is BBB 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Energy Management Counterparty Exposures by Industry Type
2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Systems Initiative
Openlink ENDUR chosen for Sequent’s Energy Trading and Risk Management system after thorough evaluation process Sapient engaged as project manager to assist Openlink in design and implementation AGLR technology organization has been actively involved in this process Extensive contractual provisions negotiated with both vendors (Openlink and Sapient) Go live date scheduled for summer 2004 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Energy Management Risk Control
In order for Executive Management to effectively capture and monitor risks identified and quantitatively measured, a sound Risk Management framework is required. Organization & People Well defined risk management organization structure Methodologies Consistent and approved valuation and risk measurement methodologies Limits & Controls Appropriate risk limits to communicate the Company’s risk appetite Reporting A comprehensive and consistent framework for communicating risk taking activities across the organization Policies Comprehensive policies to communicate strategies, approved activities, risk tolerances, and control processes and procedures Systems & Data integrated systems and consistent and reliable data are the backbone of an effective risk management program 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
Value at Risk * VaR: Maximum expected variation in the portfolio's value within a given degree of confidence, over a specific holding period. VaR Details: 95% confidence interval Sequent’s VaR model is based on weighted historical price changes 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
Wholesale Services - Sharpe Ratio Summary of Results: The Sharpe Ratio for Sequent Wholesale Services is 2.12 for the 2003 year-to-date period ending September 2003. The decrease in the value is attributed primarily to lower profitability. The decreasing trend of this ratio is expected to reverse as we move out of the shoulder/fall season and into the winter season when we usually see increased profitability. The Sharpe Ratio is the difference between the return to an investment and a benchmark return, divided by the standard deviation of that difference. Inputs to the Sharp Ratio: Operating Income: Wholesale Services Average Monthly Capital Deployed: Wholesale Services 90-Day Treasury Bill Rates Sharpe Ratio - Benchmarks Mutual Funds: Trading Systems Sharpe > Sharpe > 0 Sharpe > 1 “Pretty Good” Sharpe > 2 “Very Good” Sharpe >2 “Outstanding” Sharpe >3 “Outstanding” 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
Risk Adjusted Return On Capital (RAROC) - Wholesale Services RAROC is a risk-adjusted performance measure. The metric measures the profitability of a firm based on economic capital. Preliminary work on RAROC includes the following inputs & results: Operating Income (Wholesale Services) Market Risk (Average 10-day VaR x 4) Credit Risk Operational Risk (1/2 VaR x 4) Results: 8-month average = 17.5% References: Keers, Greg. “Risk Adjusted Capital Allocation For Energy Project Appraisal.” Crouhy, Michel. Risk Management Standard & Poor’s. “Debt Treatment of Contingent Capital for Energy Trading and Marketing.” 20 March 2003. 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Energy Management Net Assets and Dividend History
2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Sequent Energy Management Working Capital and NYMEX Settled Prices
2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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2004 Outlook Sequent will move to the next level
Significant increase in activity Geographical diversity across the eastern half of the United States Expand into additional service activities Implement new end-to-end business system Leverage the current Sequent infrastructure Develop a higher sustainability of margins Less driven by weather events Origination activities will be a significant contributor 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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Projected Gross Margin
2004 Plan Projected Gross Margin Contribution Projected Volumetric Share by Pipeline 2003 Analyst/Investor Conference
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