1. DISPUTES & INVESTIGATIONS ECONOMICS FINANCIAL ADVISORY MANAGEMENT CONSULTING Can Today's Demand Response Programs Support Integration of Renewable Energy onto the Grid? An Analysis of California Programs and CAISO Requirements Stuart Schare Director, Energy Practice National Town Meeting on Demand Response and Smart Grid Washington, DC July 11, 2013

2. Reliability DR programs are larger & more common than price-responsive or economic DR Fewer programs with fewer MW have attributes that may be able to provide energy or ancillary services Smallest subset of all might have attributes needed to provide regulation-up services (much less reg-down) Most DR Programs Are Not Designed to Provide Ancillary Services

3. An initial test is whether they meet CAISO requirements for ancillary services: Advance Notice of Deployment Speed of Response to Control Signal Duration of Response Frequency of Response Range of Permissible Deviation Ramping and load following services to support renewables integration may be less onerous Can Existing IOU DR Programs in California Provide Renewables Integration Services? Sources: CAISO and various California studies

4. Event duration is generally sufficient Other requirements met by few programs Precision of delivered load drop ( deviation ) is problematic, especially for fast response Current IOU DR programs in California have limited ability to meet CAISO ancillary services requirements

5. California DR programsas a portfolioare a long way from being able to provide ancillary services On average, across programs, DR cannot provide even non-spinning reserves But maybe some individual programs could support renewables integration…?

6. A few DR programs come close to having the attributes needed to provide non-spinning reserves

7. Program-by-program assessment of potential modifications Modifications could not change the fundamental nature of a program Modifications may reduce the number of customers willing/able to participate in DR Key modifications: Telemetry for real-time communications, metering, and control Automated response to control signals Reduced/no advance notification time Increased frequency with which DR resource could be dispatched. Could DR programs be modified to provide renewables integration services?

8. Increase is most significant for spinning and non-spinning reserves On average, programs still fall short of CAISO standards Modifications could significantly increase the ability of the average program to meet CAISO AS standards

9. Five programs could meet all requirements Aggregator programs (3) Agricultural pumping Customer-sited generation Most program would be deficient in just one or two attributes ( deviation and…?) Some programs could be modified to meet CAISO non- spinning reserve requirements

10. A few likely can provide non-spinning reserves Slightly fewer meet spinning reserve requirements Regulation requires special equipment and characteristics that will limit DRs applicationsbut how much do we need? Typical DR program structures are not well-suited for precise response in minutes or seconds

11. New DR programs could be designed specifically to provide renewable energy integration services Attributes Required Continuous Ramping/ Load Following Spinning & Non-Spinning ReservesRegulation Services Telemetry Required Automated response Required Response time Less than one hour, but some could be up to 10 hours Less than 10 minutes; less than 10 second to begin ramping is desirable Seconds Event limitations 10 hours or more duration, minimum of one hour Dozens to more than 100 events lasting at least one hour each Continuous availability desired Daily/seasonal availability 24x7 year-round, with seasonal variation 24x7 year-round Target end uses Commercial lighting and HVAC Agricultural and municipal pumping, electric water heat Temperature controlled warehouses, industrial motor loads on VFDs

12. Key C O N T A C T S ©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. Key C O N T A C T S ©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. Key C O N T A C T S ©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. Key C O N T A C T S ©2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc.. 12 ENERGY Stuart Schare Director | Energy stuart.schare@navigant.com 303.728.2504 office ENERGY