1. Science Policy, Budgets and Politics: What the Future May Hold Michael S. Lubell Chairman, Physics Department CCNY, New York, NY and Director of Public Affairs American Physical Society, Washington, DC BESAC Meeting, December 6, 2004

2. Lessons from the Election The Five Hot Issues Based on Exit Polls TerrorismBush Iraq WarBush/Kerry Economy and JobsBush/Kerry Health CareKerry Moral ValuesBush, Bush, Bush Post Election Issues Poll Results National Security Domestic Issues: Economy, Jobs, Education, Health Moral Values25%!!!

3. Science’s Image Elitist Arrogant Liberal Democrat Out of Touch with Middle America Enemy of the Bush Administration – Cuts Both Ways

4. Science the Enemy of the Bush Administration Kyoto Protocols ABM Treaty Stem Cell Research Evolution vs. Creationism The Union of Concerned Scientists Reports Scientists for Change

5. Building Bridges To the Public More than 85 percent of people polled believe that science is beneficial But only 20 percent people polled name jobs and the economy as a principal benefit Fewer than 10 percent can name any place where research is performed

6. Building Bridges To the White House Repair the damage Speak the language Engage industrial allies Encourage conservative scientists to speak out

7. The Budgetary Challenges Structural deficit (FY04: $413 b unified $575 b on-budget) Historic current accounts deficit ($50 b/mo; 5.6% of GDP) Foreign ownership of federal debt (92% during last 4 yrs) The sinking dollar Entitlement pressures – Social Security & Medicare Tax cuts Iraq war Homeland security

9. Timeline for the FY 2007 Budget Spring 2005: OMB Guidance to Agencies Summer 2005: Agency Planning Sept. 2005: Agency Requests Submitted to OMB Thanksgiving 2005: OMB “Pass Backs” Sent to Agencies Jan. 2006: Presidential Request Finalized Monday, Feb. 6, 2006: Presidential Budget Submitted to Congress April 15, 2006: Budget Resolution Passed by Congress – Or Not! Spring and Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed by House Spring and Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed by Senate Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Conferenced Sept. 30, 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed and Signed into Law Oct. 1, 2006: Start of FY 2007

12. The Inside Story of the FY 05 Budget DOE Champions: Hobson, Visclosky, Biggert, Domenici, Reid, Alexander, Bingaman The NSF Squeeze: Veterans and Moon- Mars Evils and Benefits of an Omnibus Bill

15. Science Messages Economic Growth and Jobs Competitiveness National Security Health Care High Tech Workforce

16. Benchmarking the Future Patents High-Tech Industry Output R & D Spending Publications Student Enrollments

21. Physics Review Submissions

22. Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical Sciences, Math & Computer Sciences in U.S. Institutions

23. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 1955196019651975198519951970198019902000 Students and Federal Funding Federal R&D, $M, Non-Biomed (Constant 1996 Dollars) Bachelor’s Degrees in Physical Sciences, Math and Engineering Year Budget Data: Table D in National Patterns of Research and Development Resources: 2000 Data Update (NSF Pub 01-309), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Also, the NIH Almanac (NIH Pub. 01-5), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 2001. Student Data: Science and Engineering Degrees 1966-1998 (NSF Pub 01-325), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 2001. Pre-1966 data: Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-80. A Source Book. Special Edition. National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 1982. Dollars Students Mayo, Bruggeman, and Sargent (2002)

24. What can we do? Engage the public – all elements Get political – both parties Use our power in numbers — we’re very large