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Transboundary influences on US background ozone Huiqun Wang 1 Philippe Le Sager 2 Rokjin Park 3

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Presentation on theme: "Transboundary influences on US background ozone Huiqun Wang 1 Philippe Le Sager 2 Rokjin Park 3"— Presentation transcript:

1 Transboundary influences on US background ozone Huiqun Wang 1 (hwang@cfa.harvard.edu) Philippe Le Sager 2 (plesager@seas.harvard.edu) Rokjin Park 3 (rjpark@snu.ac.kr) Daniel Jacob 2 (djacob@fas.harvard.edu) 1.Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory 2.Harvard University 3.Seoul National University Work sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, through a contract with Argonne National Laboratory

2 2 According to EPA, counties violating the current 80 ppb ozone standard are largely limited to southern California, the Northeast coastal corridor, and isolated other parts of the eastern US

3 3 EPA further shows that lowering the standard to 75 ppb or 70 ppb would significantly increase the number of counties in violation, based on current air quality data

4 4 Application of GEOS-Chem global air quality model to quantify transboundary pollution influence GEOS-Chem is a global model of ozone-PM chemistry using here NASA/GEOS assimilated meteorological data for 2001; horizontal resolution is 1 o lat x 1 o long (about 70x50 sq. mi.) (1)Standard simulation; compare w/ observations to assess confidence in the model (2)Set U.S. or N. American anthropogenic emissions to zero  quantify U.S. background and North American background (3)Difference between U.S. background and North American background  Canadian+Mexican pollution enhancement (CANMEX) (4) Set global anthropogenic emissions to zero  quantify natural background 3-D model structure

5 5 Data from Fiore et al. [JGR, 2003b] for the period Mar-Oct 2001 Background ozone is important for setting the standard Background is not directly measurable and needs to be estimated from models CASTNet sites observations GEOS-Chem at CASTNet NA background from GEOS-Chem Natural background from GEOS-Chem NA background from MOZART-2

6 6 NA background – no anthropogenic emissions in North America US background – no anthropogenic emissions in the US Anthropogenic NO x Emissions World North America USA Canada Mexico (Tg N/Year)25.48.16.7 0.5 0.9 The national totals of CAN and MEX are small, but there are non-negligible emission sources close to the border

7 7 NA background (without NA anthropogenic emissions) US background (without US anthropogenic emissions) JJA 2001 mean, based on daily-8h-max

8 8 Canadian and Mexican influences (ppb) (JJA mean, based on daily-8h-max) Enhancement to NA background is found In the Northeast and Southwest US Selected rural measurement sites under CANMEX influences, avoiding mountain- top sites and sites with complex topography, traffic influence, and missing data

9 9 Canadian enhancement in the Northeast (ppb) (JJA mean, based on daily-8h-max) The largest mean Canadian enhancement is 8.8 ppb (among all US grid boxes) Rural sites under CAN influence

10 10 The largest mean Mexican enhancement is 13.1 ppb (among all US grid boxes) Rural sites under MEX influence Mexican enhancement in the Southwest (ppb) (JJA mean, based on daily-8h-max)

11 11 Buffalo Westfield Williamson Kane Exp Forest Unionville Lykens CAN enhancement at selected sites in the Northeast close to Canadian sources Daily-8h-max time series for these six locations follow …

12 12 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX The largest episodic CAN enhancement at Unionville, MI (34 ppb) increases US background to 47 ppb (red circle) Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

13 13 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Westfield, NY Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

14 14 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Williamson, NY Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

15 15 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Kane Exp Forest, PA Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

16 16 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Lykens, OH Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

17 17 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Buffalo, NY: At Buffalo, the CAN influence is frequently above 10 ppb, and US background is frequently above 30 ppb Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

18 18 For Buffalo, EPA has shown that Canadian sources contribute 59% to ozone precursors on peak ozone days (Slide from EPA presentation)

19 19 Buffalo Westfield Williamson Kane Exp Forest Unionville Lykens Greenbelt Stow Wash. Crossing High episodic CAN contributions are experienced as far south and east as Eastern MA, New Jersey, and the Washington DC area Daily-8h-max time series for these more distant locations follow …

20 20 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Stow, MA Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

21 21 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Washington Crossing, NJ Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

22 22 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Greenbelt, MD Inverted black triangles show days in which CAN enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

23 23 Measurement Std-run US-background NA-background CANMEX Alpine, CA: The situation in the Southwest is different from the Northeast; there is a larger mean enhancement but fewer sharp episodes. MEX influence is frequently above 10 ppb, and US background is frequently above 30 ppb Inverted black triangles show days in which MEX enhancement is >10 ppb and observed ozone concentration is >80 ppb

24 24 Canadian influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>80 ppb) Canadian influence is always 80 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 80 ppb Max CAN contribution on peak ozone days is 23 ppb among boxes shown as: ■ CAN influence is important for areas near the Great Lakes and the Northeast coast

25 25 Canadian influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>75 ppb) Canadian influence is always 75 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 75 ppb

26 26 Note that as the reference ozone value is decreased, increasingly larger areas of the Southeast and industrial Midwest are influenced Canadian influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>70 ppb) Canadian influence is always 70 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 70 ppb

27 27 Canadian influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>80 ppb) Canadian influence is always 80 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 80 ppb

28 28 Canadian influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>75 ppb) Canadian influence is always 75 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 75 ppb

29 29 Canadian influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>70 ppb) Canadian influence is always 70 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 70 ppb At CAN = >5 ppb and ozone = >70 ppb, much of the eastern US is influenced, even into North Carolina

30 30 70 75 2850 280 93 527 854 16792936 Contribution of CAN pollution to exceedances of different levels of ozone concentration (I) Includes all US grid boxes within [36N-48N, 88W-66W] (15,180 data points) Y: X: 138 Number of data points exceeding specified values of CAN enhancement and ozone concentration (cumulative) En\Oz>70 ppb>75 ppb>80 ppb >10 ppb3.2%3.0%3.3% >5 ppb17.9%16.7%16.2% 30

31 31 Scatter plot based on timeseries at the gridboxes with Ozone > 80ppb and Canadian influence > 5ppb 284371 138 540 225 916 359 1409 Sorted to include only the 56 grid boxes that had at least one case of X >80 ppb and Y >5 ppb, i.e., under some Canadian influence (5,152 data points) En\Oz>70 ppb>75 ppb>80 ppb >10 ppb5.0%4.7%5.2% >5 ppb25.5%24.6%25.6% Number of data points exceeding specified values of CAN enhancement and ozone concentration (cumulative) Contribution of CAN pollution to exceedances of different levels of ozone concentration (II) 31

32 32 Mexican influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>80 ppb) Mexican influence is always 80 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 80 ppb Max MEX contribution on peak ozone days is 18 ppb among boxes shown as: ■ MEX influence is important for southern California and parts of Arizona and Texas

33 33 Mexican influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>75 ppb) Mexican influence is always 75 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 75 ppb

34 34 Mexican influence is >10 ppb on some peak ozone days (>70 ppb) Mexican influence is always 70 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 70 ppb

35 35 Mexican influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>80 ppb) Mexican influence is always 80 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 80 ppb

36 36 Mexican influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>75 ppb) Mexican influence is always 75 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 75 ppb

37 37 Mexican influence is >5 ppb on some peak ozone days (>70 ppb) Mexican influence is always 70 ppb) Untagged color boxes have max surface ozone <= 70 ppb At MEX = >5 ppb and ozone = >70 ppb, MEX influence extends into Nevada, New Mexico, and NW Texas

38 38 142853 49 109271 41310022453 70 75 Contribution of MEX pollution to exceedances of different levels of ozone concentration (I) Y: X: Includes all US grid boxes within [26N-42N, 120W-90W] (34,960 data points) Number of data points exceeding specified values of MEX enhancement and ozone concentration (cumulative) En\Oz>70 ppb>75 ppb>80 ppb >10 ppb2.2%2.8%3.4% >5 ppb11.0%10.9%11.9% 38

39 39 Scatterplot based on timeseries at gridboxes with Ozone > 80 ppb & Mexican enhancement > 5 ppb 14 49 125 27 90 223 43 155 379 En\Oz>70 ppb>75 ppb>80 ppb >10 ppb11.3%12.1%11.2% >5 ppb40.9%40.4%39.2% Number of data points exceeding specified values of MEX enhancement and ozone concentration (cumulative) Contribution of MEX pollution to exceedances of different levels of ozone concentration (II) Sorted to include only the 15 grid boxes that had at least one case of X >80 ppb and Y >5 ppb, i.e., under some Mexican influence (1,380 data points) 39

40 40 CONCLUSIONS Transboundary pollution from Canada and Mexico increases the mean background surface ozone concentration in the US in JJA by 1-13 ppb. The largest Canadian enhancement is 8.8 ppb (JJA mean), with an episodic maximum of 34 ppb (at Unionville, MI) in the daily-8h-max time series. The largest Mexican enhancement is higher, 13.1 ppb (JJA mean), but the maximum in the daily-8h- max time series is smaller (21 ppb, not shown). For peak ozone cases, the US background can be >30 ppb and even 40 ppb due to transboundary influences. Transboundary pollution can contribute significantly (up to 23 ppb in the Northeast and 18 ppb in the Southwest) to peak ozone levels (in this case, defined as >80 ppb). Canadian contributions on peak days (>70, > 75, or > 80 ppb ozone) can exceed 10 ppb as far from Canada as near Washington, DC; central New Jersey, and eastern Massachusetts; Mexican contributions can be consistently higher in some cases, but focused on closer areas of S. California, S. Nevada, and western to central Arizona. Cross-border contributions of these magnitudes impose significant penalties for some regions of the country, i.e., in order to achieve a tightened ozone standard, parts of MI, NY, PA, and other Northeastern and Midwestern locations would have to get substantial additional emission reductions, depending on location, to offset the Canadian influence.

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