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SESAME 2000-2010 Cindy Bae (18214072) Elly Jang (25693094) Vicky Wu (15039076) Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090) SURVIVALSEEDS.

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Presentation on theme: "SESAME 2000-2010 Cindy Bae (18214072) Elly Jang (25693094) Vicky Wu (15039076) Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090) SURVIVALSEEDS."— Presentation transcript:

1 SESAME 2000-2010 Cindy Bae (18214072) Elly Jang (25693094) Vicky Wu (15039076) Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090) SURVIVALSEEDS

2 OUTLINEOFSESAME Introduction Sesame World Market Trend - Production, Supply, Demand - Price Pattern - Market Concentration and Thickness of the Market Market Analysis - Supply and Demand Shock - Case Study Countries: Ethiopia, China, Japan Conclusion INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 2

3 Calendar INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Activity Sep Oct NovDec Mar Feb Jan AprMay Jun Jul Aug Land clearing & Preparation Seeding/S awing Weed and Pest Control Harvesting Threshing 3

4 SESAMEPROFILE Growing Condition: sandy loam soil with pH 5.5 – 8.0 area below 1,250 meters above sea level temperature above 20  C rainfall from 500 – 650 mms Growing Distribution: Developing countries produce 98% of world sesame seed, because harvesting sesame is labor intensive INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 4

5 WHERESESAMEGROWS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Ethiopia Sudan Uganda China India Burma 5

6 SESAMEPROFILE Sesame Usage: Food (oil, seasoning), Pharmaceutical and Cosmetics Health effect: High in Vitamin E & B and Low in Cholesterol High Anti-Oxidant Lowering Blood Pressure Bone and Respiratory Health Cancer Prevention Different type: Oil Grade Sesame (White) Food Grade Sesame (Black) Sesame with higher oil content is considered of higher grade INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 6

7 SESAMEMARKET INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION World Production VS Supply VS Demand Growth Ratio, 2000-2010 Production1.075 = 8% Supply1.114 = 11% Demand1.117 = 12% Demand grows more rapidly than supply and production 7

8 Top 5 Exporters Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern SESAMEMARKET 2000-2010 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 8

9 Top 5 Importers Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern SESAMEMARKET 2000-2010 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 9

10 BASELINERATIO 2000-2010 Top 5 Exporters Price Growth RatioFood Price Index Growth Ratio India1.199429 = 20% 1.131868059 = 13% Sudan (former)1.211999 = 21% Ethiopia1.12072 = 12% Nigeria1.13141 = 13% China1.197077 = 20% Top 5 Importers Price Growth RatioFood Price Index Growth Ratio China1.19384 = 20% 1.131868059 = 13% Japan1.175218 = 18% Turkey1.257159 = 26% Republic of Korea1.191829 = 19% Syrian Arab Republic1.11697 = 12% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Sesame price had the same pattern with food price index, but increased rapidly 10

11 SESAMESEED 2000 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Main producers TonneMain Exporters TonneMain Importers Tonne China811819Sudan (former)209949Japan164713 India517800India183306Egypt85919 Myanmar295515China103326Republic of Korea70118 Sudan (former)282000Myanmar34400 United States of America 49062 Uganda97000Nigeria30200China37149 %top producers/world79% %top exporters/world76% %top importers/world62% World 2535731 World 736800 World 658917 %production traded: 736800 / 2535731 = 29% 11

12 SESAMESEED 2008 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION %production traded: 906549 / 3465615 = 29% Main producers TonneMain Exporters TonneMain Importers Tonne Myanmar853390India194365China234044 India640000Ethiopia130977Japan185105 China586701Myanmar110000Turkey80194 Sudan (former)350000Sudan (former)105541Republic of Korea63949 Ethiopia186772Nigeria91400 Syrian Arab Republic 43456 %top producers/world76% %top exporters/world70% %top importers/world66% World 3465615 World 906549 World 923229 12

13 SESAMESEED 2010 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Main producers TonneMain Exporters TonneMain Importers T onne India893000India321771China420635 Myanmar880000Ethiopia228039Japan161433 China587947Nigeria140800Turkey102058 Ethiopia260534Sudan (former)138000Republic of Korea77747 Sudan (former)248000 United Republic of Tanzania 65708 Syrian Arab Republic 52028 %top producers/world73% %top exporters/world73% %top importers/world70% World 3931636 World 1231737 World 1166448 %production traded: = 1231737 / 3931636 = 31% 13

14 RATIO2000-2010 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 200020082010 Producer CR (%top producers/world) 79%76%73% Exporter CR (%top producers/world) 76%70%73% Importer CR (%top producers/world) 62%66%70% %production traded29% 31% Neither perfect thin nor thick market Thin (10%) < Sesame (30%) < Thick (50%) Moderate well traded; main producers are also main exporters ;market is concentrated; less price volatility

15 MARKETANALYSIS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION World Price ↑ World Supply (Quantity) ↑ TechnologyLand UsePolicy Oil Price (2008) World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑ Income Economical Crisis Awareness of Health 15

16 OILPRICE INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION High oil price in 2008 affected the high price in world sesame price. Real Price - Main Exporters Real Price - Main Importers 16

17 CHANGEINGDP INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION As the income increased, food demand including sesame increase. 17

18 BYPRODUCTEFFECT INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION The sesame seed world demand shows a similar pattern with sesame oil demand 18

19 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION EXPORTERS MAJOR CHANGE COUNTRIES  ETHIOPIA IMPORTERS MAJOR CHANGE COUNTRIES  CHINA  JAPAN 19

20 MAJOREXPORTERS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION SESAME SEEDS MAJOR EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS 200020082010 Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Sudan (Former) 28.49%India21.44%India26.12% India24.88%Ethiopia14.45%Ethiopia18.51% China14.02%Burma12.13%Nigeria11.43% Myanmar4.67%Sudan (Former)11.64%Sudan (Former)11.20% Nigeria4.10%Nigeria10.08% United Republic of Tanzania 5.33% Top 367.40%Top 348.02%Top 356.07% Top 576.16%Top 569.75%Top 572.61% 20

21 MAJOR CHANGE ON EXPORTERS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION WORLDMARKET India  (Stable) Large Land Usage + Low Productivity Sudan  (Decreased) Reduced Land Usage + Low Productivity; Market Share: 28.49%  11.20% Ethiopia  (Increased) Market Share:  18.51% China  (Decreased) Market Share: 14.02%  21

22 IMPORTERSOFETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION SESAME SEEDS 20052011 Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Japan26.11China41.22 United States25.92Turkey21.59 Egypt19.53Israel13.22 Jordan10.68Jordan7.75 Greece8.45Greece6.50 Saudi Arabia2.63Saudi Arabia4.28 Lebanon1.91Yemen2.22 Netherland1.39United States1.47 Switzerland1.32 Other1.75 Other2.07TOTAL 100 TOTAL100 22

23 REASONS FOR CHANGE 1.Target Market: Low Value Export Markets a.Japan: strict standard on quality and food safety b.USA & Europe: high food safety standards (organic certification) for bakery applications c.Substitute effect of Cotton seed (Profitable for farmers, 90% oil) 2. Strategic Policy: a.ECX (Ethiopia Commodity Exchange from 2008) b.Currency Depreciation (Positive correlation between export volume and nominal exchange rate) 3. Competitor: Sudan a.Access to sea port b.Policy reason: Sudan benefits further from membership in the Pan-Arab free trade area. INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION ETHIOPIA 23

24 MAJORIMPORTERS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION SESAME SEEDS MAJOR IMPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS 200020082010 Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) Japan25.00%China25.35%China36.06% Egypt13.04%Japan20.05%Japan13.84% South Korea10.64%Turkey8.69%Turkey8.75% United States7.45%South Korea6.93%South Korea6.67% China5.64% Syrian Arab Republic 4.71% Syrian Arab Republic 4.46% TOP 348.68%TOP 354.09%TOP 358.65% TOP 561.76%TOP 565.72%TOP 569.78% 24

25 MAJOR CHANGE ON IMPORTERS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Japan  (Decreased) Market Share: 25.00%  13.84% China  (Increased) Market Share: 5.64%  36.06% WORLDMARKET 25

26 CHINA INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION CHANGE IN IMPORT/EXPORT PATTERNS 2010 1 ST LARGEST IMPORTER 2008 1 ST LARGEST IMPORTER 2000 3 RD LARGEST EXPORTER 26

27 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 1.Planting area  a)Poor Weather 2.Highest Productivity a)Increased R&D b)Improved Technology c)Increased Labor Input 3.Different types of grade a)Import Oil Grade (White) b)Export Food Grade (Black) CONSUMPTION >> PRODUCTION CHINA ECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL 27

28 EXPORTERSOFCHINA INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION POLICY & REGULATION Exporters20052006200720082009Market Share (%) World12490821087316888324937538761048.5 1Ethiopia6699510960165398572411881439.8 2Tanzania1412994601010712066379319.6 3Mozambique26095181978625085370789.0 4Myanmar428825001745766595347147.2 5Sudan19398547221394414219278424.2 6India8557100973582048138162342.8 No Tariff for African countries 28

29 EXPORTERSOFJAPAN INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION SESAME SEEDS 20052009 Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) China26.23Nigeria22.28 Nigeria19.94Paraguay16.57 Guatemala10.61Burma9.59 Tanzania7.09Tanzania9.10 Paraguay5.56China8.02 Burma4.67Bolivia7.48 Burkina Faso4.56Guatemala6.56 Ethiopia4.02Burkina Faso6.50 Pakistan3.08Turkey3.19 Sudan2.72Sudan3.17 29

30 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 1.No Local Production, but High Consumption of Sesame Seed 2.High quality oil for different usages a.Food, Cosmetics, Pharmaceutical & Medication Usage 3.Main Exporter: Nigeria a.High Quality & High Oil Content b.Minimum Barriers to Trade between Japan & Nigeria 4.POLICY & REGULATION a.No tariff on sesame seed imports JAPAN REASONS FOR CHANGE 30

31 MARKETANALYSIS INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION World Price ↑ World Supply (Quantity) ↑ TechnologyLand UsePolicy Oil Price (2008) World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑ Income Economical Crisis Awareness of Health 31

32 TAKE AWAY MASSAGE INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Sesame market is filled with potential; it is definitely a market that’s worth investing in. 32

33 References INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Sesame market is filled with potential; it is definitely a market that’s worth investing in. 33 http://www.atfp.org.ae/English/studies/Sudan-tp/sdntp-sesame2011.pdf http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx http://www.ipms- ethiopia.org/content/files/Documents/publications/MscTheses/FinalThesis_ KindieAysheshm.pdf http://www.unep-unctad.org/cbtf/events/kampala5/day2/23- Sesame%20The%20under- exploited%20organic%20oil%20seed%20crop%20paper%20Ol.pdf http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6- 436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=8&hid=119 http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6- 436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=14&hid=119 http://www.tcboostproject.com/_resources/resource/NEEP%20Sesame%20 Market%20Intelligence%20Report.pdf http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2012 wesp_prerel.pdf

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