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Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey Presentation by: Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc) Business Trends 2006 Task Force Committee members include:

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Presentation on theme: "Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey Presentation by: Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc) Business Trends 2006 Task Force Committee members include:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey Presentation by: Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc) Business Trends 2006 Task Force Committee members include: Aurelio Carinci (Exide) Ed Dailey (GSP) Dick Davidson (Thombert) Bob Warren (Cascade) ITA Fall Meeting The Breakers Florida, September 2006

2 ChinaProcurement Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls Batteries and Chargers Miscellaneous Topics Miscellaneous Topics

3 China

4 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1)On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (#2) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2004 20052006 Low High 19 responses A. Exporting US produced products to China

5 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2004 20052006LowHigh 19 responses B. Partnering with Chinese forklift mfg to produce trucks in China 1)On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (#2)

6 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2004 20052006LowHigh 19 responses C. Seeking parts suppliers in China 1)On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (#2)

7 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA20052006LowHigh 19 responses D. Building trucks in China for the Chinese market 1)On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to China as a potential market in the following ways? (#2)

8 Class 5 Class 4 Class 3 Class 1 2) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of Chinese-produced lift trucks on the North American market over the next 5 years? (#3) 20 responses 18 responses 19 responses Class 2 HPTs

9 China

10 Procurement

11 3) With regard to procurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways. (#8) A.What percent of your components are you buying and assembling yourself? 2006: 50%2011: 47% C.What percent of your components and subassemblies are you manufacturing? 2006: 35%2011: 37% B. What percent of complete subassembly units are you buying from suppliers? 2006: 34%2011: 37%

12 4) Of the following, please circle the top three considerations that you feel will most impact the sourcing of products in the next 5 years (# 9) # 1: Costs (named 16 times, 14x in 2005) # 2: Quality (named 8 times, 4x in 2005) # 3: Globalization of companies (named 6 times, 1x in 2005) # 4: Exchange rate/Strength of the US Dollar (5x, 3x in 2005) 5) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that your company and your major customers will increase the use of reverse internet auctions for sourcing? (# 10)

13 6) Will your supplier base substantially increase, substantially decrease, or stay approximately the same over the next five years? (# 11) 19 responses

14 7) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being of no importance and 10 being of great importance, how important to your purchase decisions is the availability of engineering support from your supplier? (# 12) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA Low2006High 19 responses 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2005

15 Procurement

16 Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls

17 8)What percentage increase in the use of integral versus hang on side shifters do you predict for the North American market by 2011? (# 1) 19 responses vs.

18 9)On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13) A. Forks and attachments 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2003 20052006Low High 18 responses

19 B. Use of fork positioners With hang on fork positioners 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 18 responses Low2006High With integral fork positioners 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 18 responses Low2006High 9)On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)

20 C. Sideshifting and positioning together With hang on 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 18 responses Low2006High With integral 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 18 responses Low2006High 2003: 2.7 2005: 5.1 9)On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)

21 D. Use of these technologies in high volume trucks As hang on products 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 16 responses Low2006High As integral products 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 18 responses Low2006High 9)On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)

22 11) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery 4-wheel trucks, what percentage of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2007 and 2010? (#22) IC trucks Battery 4-wheel trucks 16 responses 10)What percentage of trucks will use single valve technology to control multiple functions in 2007 and 2010? (# 14)

23 Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls

24 Batteries and Chargers

25 12) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will use fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 15) A.Fast charging2007: 17%2010: 25% 12 responses last years survey 9% 33% B. 80 volt batteries2007: 10%2010: 15% 20 responses last years survey 6% 15% C. Will international standards be developed regarding fast charging in the following areas by 2011: 14 responses

26 13) What is the likelihood that international standard will be developed for fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 16) Fast charging 20072010 80 volt batteries 20072010 17 responses 18 responses 19 responses 17 responses

27 14) What percent of the market will be garnered by opportunity charging by 2011? (# 17)

28 15) On a sale of 1 to 10 being very likely, what is the likelihood that the increasing sales volume of hybrid automobiles and their higher voltage (312 volts etc.) will lead to the greater use of auto hybrid components and higher voltage driveline systems in electric forklifts by 2011? (# 18) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA High 18 responses Low

29 16) Will nickel metal hydride or lithium battery chemistries find significant (more than 20 %) use in forklifts by 2011? (# 19) 15 responses

30 Batteries and Chargers

31 Miscellaneous

32 17)A. Do you believe that fuel cells will be a significant share of the market? If so, when? (# 4) B. What truck classes will most likely use fuel cells by 2011?

33 IC trucks in % of total US shipments 18)On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a strong shift, how much of a shift will there be away from IC powered trucks towards electric powered trucks in the North American market in the next five years? (# 5) 18 responses 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA2004 2005 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITAHigh Low 2006

34 19) What is the likelihood that the soon-to-be-implemented Canadian regulation requiring technician training will result in the availability of information on proprietary diagnostic systems (that are currently available only to authorized dealers) to anyone involved in repair? (# 7) 19 responses

35 20) On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being very important, how important are lower after sale maintenance costs on new forklift models that your company will sell in the future? (# 6) 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 º ITA High 18 responses Low2006

36 Class IV 2004: 41,537 2005: 42,047 Class V 2004: 46,821 2005: 51,361 21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of the following fuels? (# 20) US and Canada Net Factory Orders Class

37 21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of the following fuels? (# 20) 18 responses Diesel Gasoline 17 responses CNG 18 responses LPG

38 22) What do you believe the trend will be regarding the use of each of the following electric motor technologies between 2007 and 2010? (# 21) 16 responses AC 18 responses Brushless DC 19 responses Separately Excited 18 responses Series

39 Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey Presentation by: Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc) Business Trends 2006 Task Force Committee members include: Aurelio Carinci (Exide) Ed Dailey (GSP) Dick Davidson (Thombert) Bob Warren (Cascade) ITA Fall Meeting The Breakers Florida, September 2006


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