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Historical Patterns. S Curve Pattern of Adoption Time.

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Presentation on theme: "Historical Patterns. S Curve Pattern of Adoption Time."— Presentation transcript:

1 Historical Patterns

2 S Curve Pattern of Adoption Time

3 Sources: CAB, SRI & AC Nielsen Cable Growth, 1975 - 1999 Percent of TV Hshlds Subscribing to Cable

4 Pricing of Telephone Service New York to Chicago - 3 Minute Call (Current Dollars) Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S.; FCC

5 Average Price of Selected Electronic Products (Current Dollars ) Source: EIA; Sterling and Haight: Us Dept. of Commerce

6 Price of Selected Electronic Products In Terms of Weekly Household Income Number Of Weeks Income To Pay For Product Source: US Department of Commerce * Year Technology Entered Half of US Households

7 Average Price Of Home Computers 1981 to 1998 Dollars Sources: Dataquest; US Dept of Commerce

8 Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest Newspapers100+ Telephone 70 Phonograph 55 Electricity 43 Cable Television 39 FM Radio 30 Color Television 17 Personal Computer 17 Compact Disk Player 15 VCR 10 AM Radio 9 Black & White Television 8

9 Percentage of U.S. Households With Telephone Service 1900 - 1998 Source: US Dept. of Commerce

10 Replacement Cycles For Electronic Products Product Average Life Cycle Cordless Telephone 10 Years Color TV 8 Camcorder 7 CD Player 7 VCR 6 Personal Computer 6 Telephone Answering Machine 5 Fax 4 Source: Gannett News Service & Appliance

11 Computer Households With Modems 1988 - 1998 Source: Veronis & Suhler Percentage of PC Homes With A Modem

12 Average Monthly Cellular Phone Bill 1987 - 1998 Source: Cellular Telecom Association

13 Business Vs Personal Cellular Phone Use (Percentage of Bills Paid By Businesses vs Individuals) Source: Cellular Telecom Industry Association Business Use Personal Use

14 Share of Radio Audience Source: Statistical Research FM Radio % of Audience AM Radio

15 Current Media Trends

16 Penetration of Media, 1999 Percentage of U.S. Households With Technology or Service, Jan. 1999 Sources: CEMA; NY Times; Video Business, CTIA

17 Household Spending on Subscription Video Services - Cable, Satellite, MMDS & SMATV, 1988 - 2002 (Actual & Projected) Source: Veronis, Suhler & Assoc. $ Billion

18 How U.S. Households Receive TV Broadcast Only 22% Cable, Satellite or Other 78% Source: SRI; Cable World

19 Network Primetime Audience Share 1977 - 1998 Source: Veronic, Suhler & Assoc.

20 Broadcast & Cable Viewing Share and Revenue Share, 1998 Source: Veronis & Suhler Broadcast TV 56.5% Basic Cable 37.2% Pay Cable 6.3% TV Networks 29.2% TV Stations 42.7% Cable 18.9% Barter/Syndication 4.7% Total Day Viewing Share Ad Revenue Share

21 Number of TVs In Households Percentage of Households Source: SRI CONTAM Survey Number of TVs

22 Number of Household Telephones Percentage of Households Number of Telephones Source: SRI CONTAM Survey

23 Number of Household PCs Percentage of Households Number of Personal Computers Source: Cable World Survey 45% of PC owners have a PC and TV in the same room

24 Spending on Technology in U.S. K-12 Public Schools, 1992 - 1999 Source: Quality Education Data $ Billion * Estimated

25 Internet Trends

26 Number of US Households Subscribing To An Online/Internet Service Provider, 1985 - 1998 Source: Veronic & Suhler; Jupiter Communication, Decision Analysts Millions of Households Online in 1998: 31% of Adults 27 % of Those Under 18

27 Education Level of Adult Internet Users, 1998 Less than H.S.18% 4% H.S. Grad34 25 Some College25 31 College Grad24 39 Gen. Population Internet Users Source: US Census Bureau; Pew Research Center

28 Percentage of Adults Online By Household Income, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

29 Percentage of Adults Online By Age, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

30 Percentage of Adults Online By Ethnic Group, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

31 Gender of Internet Users in the U.S. Female Male 1994 1998 48% 14% 52% 86% Source: GVU; Pew Research Center

32 Top 10 Web Sites Most Frequently Visited Web Sites - January, 1999 Source: Media Metrix 1 Yahoo 2 AOL 3 MSN 4 Go 5 Geocities 6 Netscape 7 Excite 8 Lycos 9 Microsoft 10 Tripod

33 Electronic Commerce: Consumer Purchases on the Web Billions of Dollars Source: Forrester Research; WSJ

34 Have You Ever Shopped on the Web? Source: International Data Corp.; Cable World Percentage of Web Users Who Say They Have Made a Purchase on the Web

35 Cost To Deliver a 42-Page Document New York To: Los Angeles Tokyo Via.... Source: Interactive Week

36 Cost of Banking Transactions Cost Per Tranaction Source: Booz-Allen & Hamilton; US Dept. of Commerce

37 Growth in Web Advertising Revenue Source: Internet Advertising Bureau Billions of Dollars

38 Will People Pay for Content on The Web? WSJ$29-59275.000 The Street.com 99 25,000 Slate* 20 23,000 ESPN 29-39235,000 Playboy Cyber Club 72 30,000 Content Source Cost Per YrEst. Subcribers - 1998 Source: Crain's NY Business In 1998, subscription revenue was 2 percent of all Web revenue. * Abandoned subscription model in 1999

39 International Trends

40 Per Capita GDP ($US 1996) Telephone Lines Per 100 Pop. ('97) Source: ITU Per Capital GDP & Telephone Lines

41 Households With Telephone Service, 1996 Percentage of Households Source: ITU

42 Countries With The Most Cellular Subscribers Per 100 Population, 1998 1. Finland 50.9 2. Norway 46.5 3. Sweden 45.8 4. Guam 43.0 5. Hong Kong 39.0 6. Israel 37.4 7. Japan* 36.7 *U.S. ranks 14th with 25.0 Source: The Stratigic Group; USA Today RankN of Cell Phones Per 100 People

43 Cable TV Satellite Source: The Strategis Group Cable TVand Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) Penetration, 1998 Percent of TV HHs

44 Internet Access in Selected Countries, 1998 Source: The Strategis Group Percentage of Households

45 Internet Content Worldwide: Language and Source, 1998 Language of Web Sites Source of Web Sites Other Languages 15% English 85% U.S. 80% Other Countries 20% Source: Fortune

46 Projected Distribution of World Online Households By Region, 2000 North America 57% 38.2 Million HHs Europe 25% 16.5 Million HHs Asia/Pacific Rim 15% 10 Million HHs Other Regions 3% 1.9 Million HHs Source: Jupiter Communications/Multichannel News

47 Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998 Technology in Households TV 25% Telephone Line 3 Personal Computer 1-2 Credit Cards 1-2 Internet <1 China Population 1.2 Billion Rural 70% Urban 30% Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard

48 Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998...continued Technology Use By Households In Four Cities* Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard Pagers 62% Cell Phone 32 Personal Computer 16 DVD 3 * Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, & Chengdu Growth of Web Users Users 1997 670,000 1998 1,200,000

49 Social Trends That Affect Media Usage & Impacts of Media on Social Life

50 Growth of ATM Machines in the U.S. 1972-1998 Sources: The Nielson Report, Diebold 190,000

51 Growth in Remote Control Penetration Percentage of TV Households With Remotes Sources: EIA, SRI; Video Business

52 Two-Income Households: Percentage Of Married Couples With Both Spouses Working Source: U.S. Department of Labor

53 Pressed For Time: Percentage of People Who Feel Rushed And Have No Spare Time Source: Maryland Univ. Time Use Project

54 Home Offices in the U.S. 1988 - 1998 Sources: IDC/Link, Find/SVP Millions of Households

55 Telecommuters People Who Work Part Time or Full Time At Home Millions of Workers Sources: USA Today/Link; Find/SVP

56 Mobility : Percentage of U.S. Households That Move Each Year Source: U.S. Department of Labor

57 Press Stories About The Internet And Privacy Selected Newspapers, Magazines & TV News Sources, 1990 - 1997 Source: Greystone Communications

58 Privacy Concerns: Percentage of People Who Say They Are Concerned About Privacy Source: Louis Harris Assoc../SNET/Equifax

59 Percentage of U.S. Population 65 or Older: Actual and Projected Source: US Census Bureau

60 Average Household Size Sources: Historical Statistics of the US; American Demographics

61 Skepticism " We are in a great haste to construct a magnetic telegraph from Main to Texas, but Maine and Texas, it may be, have nothing important to communicate." Henry David Thoreau, 1849

62 Hype and Stock Speculation IPO... Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., 1882 Source: The Economist

63 Hype and Stock Speculation IPO of Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., 1882 1882 1883 Source: The Economist

64 Serendipity Two U.S. companies rent audio-books on tape to truck drivers at truck stops on the East coast. Drivers rent at one stop and return the tapes further up the road. -- The New York Times, 12/26/98

65 Communications Sector of U.S. Economy Total Revenues in Billions Source: Census Bureau; 1998 Telecom Market Review Communication Services Communication Equipment

66 Information Technology: Share of U.S. Economy % of GDP Source: US Dept. of Commerce

67 U.S. Industries Ranked By 5-Yr Growth 1992-1997 US Industry Rank Compound Annual Growth Telecommunication Services 1 9.4% Electronic Equipment & Services 2 8.4 Educational Services 3 7.8 Communications Media 4 7.2 Motor Vehicles & Parts5 7.0 Insurance6 6.9 Health & Medical Services7 6.3 Source: Verronis & Suhler; US Dept. of Commerce

68 US Labor Force, 1900 - 2000 Percentage of All Workers in Each Job Category Source: US Dept. of Commerce Agriculture Industrial Services

69 How Companies Train Workers Classroom Instruction 1997 2000 Electronic/ Web Other 1997 Corporate Training = $61 Billion Source: Am. Society for Training


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