1. Older Moms Deliver. How Increased Births to Older Mothers Are Impacting School Enrollment Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Portland State University Western Division Canadian Association of Geographers, Nanaimo, BC, 2009 PPS

2. What our research is about An outgrowth of our demographic support for Portland Public Schools, one part being enrollment forecast for the District and its schools. An outgrowth of our demographic support for Portland Public Schools, one part being enrollment forecast for the District and its schools. Illustrates the use GIS tools to analyze demographic changes at macro and micro levels. Illustrates the use GIS tools to analyze demographic changes at macro and micro levels. Shows some of the ways in which we link birth trends to housing trends and gentrification of Portland neighborhoods. Shows some of the ways in which we link birth trends to housing trends and gentrification of Portland neighborhoods. A work in progress. A work in progress.

3. An Oregonian article in Fall 2008 noted the increase in kindergarten enrollments. An Oregonian article in Fall 2008 noted the increase in kindergarten enrollments. What factors lay behind this upturn, especially in parts of the District where enrollments have been declining for years? What factors lay behind this upturn, especially in parts of the District where enrollments have been declining for years?

4. The Ups and Downs of Enrollment Historical Enrollments in Portland Public Schools 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 18751885189519051915192519351945195519651975198519952005 Year Enrolled The Depression WWII Baby Boom Baby Boom ends Echo of Baby Boom Post 1996 Declines Historical Enrollments in Portland Public Schools 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 18751885189519051915192519351945195519651975198519952005 Year Enrolled The Depression The Depression WWII Baby Boom Baby Boom Baby Boom ends Baby Boom ends Echo of Baby Boom Echo of Baby Boom Post 1996 Declines Post 1996 Declines

5. Housing in the District Most of the single family building permits were issued for areas outside of the District ( in yellow) Most of the single family building permits were issued for areas outside of the District ( in yellow) The multifamily units in the core area (A) of the District house few school age children The multifamily units in the core area (A) of the District house few school age children Other than the Forest Park area (B), single family construction has had a modest impact on the District’s enrollment. Other than the Forest Park area (B), single family construction has had a modest impact on the District’s enrollment. Pearl District Loft Condos, about one PPS student per 200 units A B Infill? Mostly too small for families with kids.

6. The combination of net out- migration and losses to private schools means fewer KG students than children born 5 years prior. The combination of net out- migration and losses to private schools means fewer KG students than children born 5 years prior. Losses from Birth to KG

7. Further Losses in the Middle Grades

8. Age Specific Fertility Rates in 2000

9. Age Specific Fertility Rates Age Specific fertility - the numbers of births by age of mother. Age Specific fertility - the numbers of births by age of mother. The time dimension here is the age cohort of women The time dimension here is the age cohort of women The clock with the rose sector shows birth rates for the age cohort The clock with the rose sector shows birth rates for the age cohort The “biological clock”

10. $ $ $ $ $ $ B H H H Age Specific Birth Rates – Animation Income and ethnicity impact birth rates Income and ethnicity impact birth rates Minority mothers are younger H, B Minority mothers are younger H, B Affluent mothers are older $ Affluent mothers are older $ $ $ $ $ $ $

11. Proportion of Births to Older Mothers Proportion of Births to Older Mothers There was growth in the births to older mothers across the District There was growth in the births to older mothers across the District But that on the east side was mainly after 2000 But that on the east side was mainly after 2000

12. Here is the same series of maps animated Who are the older moms? Who are the older moms? More educated and affluent. More educated and affluent. Married later and postponed motherhood. Married later and postponed motherhood.

13. The decline in births to younger mothers was nearly equal to the increase to older mothers. The decline in births to younger mothers was nearly equal to the increase to older mothers. Total births stayed about the same Total births stayed about the same

14. The Map and the Graph The changing spatial and temporal trends in births by age of mother lead to … The changing spatial and temporal trends in births by age of mother lead to … a changing geography of births and … a changing geography of births and … school enrollment. school enrollment. X =

15. Change in Birth Density ABC X The mauve areas show where the density of births to older mothers has increased. The areas labeled “A”, “B”, and “C” are the largest concentrations and will be discussed as “focus areas”. The area labeled “X” represents loss of African Americans birth mothers. X

16. Change in Housing Values In the circled areas of interest housing values have increased rapidly from the $200,000 range to the $300,000 and $400,000 range. The “older moms” were able to move in before the prices escalated

17. Change in Percent with 4 Year Degree or Higher This map is based on census data for 1990 and 2000 and shows where the percent with a 4 year degree or higher have increased. This map is based on census data for 1990 and 2000 and shows where the percent with a 4 year degree or higher have increased. This is a common identifier for gentrification. This is a common identifier for gentrification. Note the correspondence between areas “A”, “B”, and “C” where the density of births to older mothers increased Note the correspondence between areas “A”, “B”, and “C” where the density of births to older mothers increased

18. Growth in the “Young Family Aged” Population from 1990 to 2000 Young families here are those in their 20’s in 1990 and their age 4 and under children. Young families here are those in their 20’s in 1990 and their age 4 and under children. In the blue areas persons in these age groups increased, over 30% in some census tracts. In the blue areas persons in these age groups increased, over 30% in some census tracts.

19. Change in KG-02 Enrollment In the focus areas (A, B, C) enrollment declined from 1999 to 2003 In the focus areas (A, B, C) enrollment declined from 1999 to 2003 But reversed and increased from 2003 to 2007 But reversed and increased from 2003 to 2007 In area “C” enrollment growth cancelled by exodus of Blacks to suburbs In area “C” enrollment growth cancelled by exodus of Blacks to suburbs Increase Decrease

20. Change in KG-02 Enrollment In the focus areas enrollment declined from 1999 to 2003 In the focus areas enrollment declined from 1999 to 2003 But reversed and increased from 2003 to 2000 But reversed and increased from 2003 to 2000 In area “C” enrollment growth cancelled by exodus of Blacks to suburbs In area “C” enrollment growth cancelled by exodus of Blacks to suburbs Increase Decrease

21. The Exodus of Black Students Animation shows Black students per acre Animation shows Black students per acre In 1996 52% of the Black students in the District resided in the “core area”, shown in red. In 1996 52% of the Black students in the District resided in the “core area”, shown in red. By 2006 the value had fallen to 31%. By 2006 the value had fallen to 31%. We shift now from the macro scale GIS analysis to the quasi household level. We shift now from the macro scale GIS analysis to the quasi household level.

22. Shift in the Mode of Analysis The preceding slides were based on traditional GIS overlay analysis in which the spatial association of events is noted. The preceding slides were based on traditional GIS overlay analysis in which the spatial association of events is noted. The following slides illustrate a quasi household level of analysis. The following slides illustrate a quasi household level of analysis. Geo-coded birth records were linked to the Multnomah Co. tax-lot files and Geo-coded birth records were linked to the Multnomah Co. tax-lot files and The characteristics of the mothers and their housing were cross-tabulated. The characteristics of the mothers and their housing were cross-tabulated. Why? Explore temporal relationships; better understand causes Why? Explore temporal relationships; better understand causes

23. Births by Housing Type The largest number of births were to mothers living in single family owner occupied housing. The largest number of births were to mothers living in single family owner occupied housing. The highly educated and older mothers were generally housed in larger homes. The highly educated and older mothers were generally housed in larger homes. But the results of these analyses are nuanced and not fully understood. But the results of these analyses are nuanced and not fully understood.

24. Older Moms Are a Highly Educated Group Most older moms have at least completed HS Most older moms have at least completed HS For the focus areas most have at least a 4 year degree For the focus areas most have at least a 4 year degree

25. They didn’t just move in before the birth occurred Most of the older moms move in over 4 years before the birth occurred Most of the older moms move in over 4 years before the birth occurred For the focus areas more were recent arrivals. For the focus areas more were recent arrivals. Again, data are for mothers in single family owner occupied housing Again, data are for mothers in single family owner occupied housing

26. Conclusions “ The growth is welcome, albeit unexpected”. “ The growth is welcome, albeit unexpected”. – It should have been expected since it had its beginnings in the gentrification of the 1990’s. – It should have been expected since it had its beginnings in the gentrification of the 1990’s. The growth of enrollment in the lower grades in the focus areas is a result of postponed births to older moms plus better retention of these households. The growth of enrollment in the lower grades in the focus areas is a result of postponed births to older moms plus better retention of these households. The older mothers are a special group, much more educated and affluent. The older mothers are a special group, much more educated and affluent. The GIS analysis of the data shows clear spatial relationships between the concentrations of births to older moms and gentrification trends in Portland. The GIS analysis of the data shows clear spatial relationships between the concentrations of births to older moms and gentrification trends in Portland. The analysis at the individual/housing unit level shows a more complicated story which we are still attempting to unravel The analysis at the individual/housing unit level shows a more complicated story which we are still attempting to unravel

27. Contact information: Population Research Center, Portland State University Richard Lycan – lycand@pdx.edu, 503-725-5158lycand@pdx.edu Charles Rynerson – rynerson@pdx.edu, 503-725-5157rynerson@pdx.edu PPS Credits: Portland Public Schools, Multnomah Co. GIS, Metro, and the Oregon Health Division for the data used in the research. My grand daughter, Paula Lycan, for the stork and school drawing.

28. Questions? Comments? Rebuttals?