1. Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________ Pre COP Workshop for LDC Negotiators 29-30 November 2007 Bali, Indonesia Ilona Millar FIELD

2. 2 Where does the Data come from? –UNFCCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (FCCC/SBI/2007/30) National Communications from Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6 & add.1) National communications from Non-Annex I Parties (FCCC/SBI/2005/18/Add.2) –IPCC –IEA –WRI CAIT Earth Trends Navigating the Numbers

3. 3 Emission profiles vary greatly between countries

4. 4 Annex I Emissions 1990 - 2005

5. 5 FCCC/SBI/2007/30

6. 6

7. 7

8. 8 Annex I Trends Excluding LULUCF –Total AI -2.8% –EIT -35.2% –Non-EIT +11% Including LULUCF –Total AI -4.6% –EIT -36.2% –Non-EIT +10%

9. 9 Annex I Trends including LULUCF 1990-1995 –Fell 6.9% 1995-2000 –Rose 1.3% 2000-2004 –Rose 2.4%

10. 10 FCCC/SBI/2007/30

11. 11 Changes in AI emissions 1990-2005 Ex LULUCF Australia +25.6 Canada+25.3 USA +16.3 Japan+6.9 EU-1.5 UK-14 Germany-18 Incl LULUCF Australia +4.9 Canada+54.2 USA +18.4 Japan+7.4 EU-4 UK-15.4 Germany-19.5

12. 12 FCCC/SBI/2007/30

13. 13 FCCC/SBI/2007/30

14. 14 Non-Annex I Emissions as reported based on best available data in 2005

15. 15 FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

16. 16 Non-AI emissions Gg tonnes CO2e Botswana 9,291-29,441 Congo1,374-68,485 China 4,057,306 3,649,827 India1,214,248 1,228,540 Indonesia 323,262 487,380

17. 17 FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

18. 18 FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

19. 19 Analysis of Trends

20. 20

21. 21 Figure 2.3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries

22. 22 Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

23. 23

24. 24 Source: WRI Cait

25. 25 What are the trends? Global growth in emissions Growth rates highest among developing countries Contributing factors – GDP/Capita, Population, Energy intensity, Fuel mix

26. 26 Future Projections

27. 27 FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6

28. 28 Figure 3.1 WRI. Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025 % Percent change from 2000

29. 29 (Stabilization Scenarios from WGIII, 4 May 2007, Figure SPM 5) Concentration of greenhouse gases (ppm CO 2 -e) Global mean temperature increase (°C) % change in global CO 2 emissions 2000-2050 I445 – 4902.0 – 2.4-85 to -50 II490 – 5352.4 – 2.8-60 to -30 III535 – 5902.8 – 3.2-30 to +5 IV590 – 7103.2 – 4.0+10 to +60 V710 – 8554.0 – 4.9+25 to +85 VI855 – 11304.9 – 6.1+90 to +140

30. 30 FIELD www.field.org.uk ilona.millar@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom