1. India’s INDC: Renewable Energy and the Pathway to Paris Sudatta Ray Junior Research Associate Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

2. | Contents 1 Background – INDCs and What to Expect Status of Contributions from Major Emitting Regions India and China – Differences in Scale and Nature of Emissions India’s Renewable Target in the 2030 Electricity Mix

3. | INDCs and What to Expect 2

4. | INDCs and what to expect 3SOURCE: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/application/pdf/auv_cop20_lima_call_for_climate_action.pdf The Lima Call for Climate Action text includes the following guidelines for the content and scope of INDCs – 1.Quantifiable information on the reference point (including a base year) 2.Time frames and/or periods for implementation 3.Scope and coverage (implying gases and sectors) 4.Planning processes (to oversee the fulfilment of INDCs) 5.Assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and accounting of GHGs 6.How the Party considers that its INDC is fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective set out in Article 2 of the convention

5. | Status of Contributions from Major Emitters 4

6. | The EU has increased its ambition with respect to its Copenhagen announcement of 20% reduction by 2020 5SOURCE: The European Commission (2014) Pre-Lima Copenhagen Kyoto Protocol I The European Union’s Climate Declarations

7. | Pre-Lima announcement of the US falls below a straight-line trajectory of its Copenhagen announcement 6 SOURCE: The White House (2009); The White House (2014) Pre-Lima Copenhagen Expected Pathway (Copenhagen) Copenhagen The United States’ Climate Declarations

8. | China could increase its ambition on its non-fossil fuel energy consumption, were it to grow its share at a constant rate of growth 7 SOURCE: SCIO Breifing on Climate Change (2014); National People’s Congress (2011); The Guardian (2009); The White House (2014) Copenhagen Pre-Lima 12 th FYP Press Release, September 2014 China’s Declarations on Non-Fossil Fuel Consumption

9. | Less than half the permissible carbon space is available for the rest of the world in 2030 and 2050 8SOURCE: CEEW Analysis; UNEP, Emissions Gap Report, 2013 50 With the current pledges, <50% of this space is available for the rest of the world 1.4 The rest of the world would gain 1.4 CO 2 eq. of carbon space through a cost-optimized approach of limiting temperature rise to 2 o C 36 36 Gt of CO 2 eq. is the permissible carbon space for the world in 2030

10. | India and China Differences in Scale and Nature of Emissions 9

11. | India and China - differences in emissions and climate ambitions in the past, present and future 10 SOURCE: World Bank Data, GCAM, CEC (2012) India’s aggregate emissions were a fraction of China’s in the past 2000 Aggregate Emissions (Gt of CO 2 eq.) India1.187 China3.405 India’s emissions intensity continue to be lower than China’s today 2010Emissions Intensity (CO 2 kg/ PPP of $ GDP.) India0.4 China0.7 India’s ambitions for renewable energy continue to march ahead of China’s 2020Renewable Energy Contribution to Electricity (%) India13.8% China5.0%

12. | India’s Renewable Energy Target in the 2030 Electricity Mix 11

13. | Estimating an aggressive mix for a climate-friendly electricity generation in 2030 12 SOURCE: Planning Commission. The Final report of the Expert Growth on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth, 2014; CEEW Analysis RE Source Low Carbon Growth Report (BU) Bottom-Up Analysis (BU) Solar275356 Hydro230239 Wind279371 Biomass7059 Others-16 TOTAL8541,041

14. | Aggressive ambition at what cost? 13SOURCE: CEEW Analysis Households By Income (%) Proportion Expenses Utilized for Electricity BAUGlobal 2 o C 100 GW Solar + 170 GW Wind 150 GW Solar + 170 GW Wind <10%22%29%18% 10%-20%14%19%12%11% 20%-30%11%15% 9% 30%-40%9%12% 8%7% 40%-50%8%11% 7%6% 50%-60%7%9%6%5% 60%-70%6%8%5% 70%-80%5%7%4% 80%-90%4%5%3% 90%-100%2%3%2% Total Incremental Cost Required (2010, USD billion) -- 452715 (24% of India’s GDP in 2013) (38% of India’s GDP in 2013)

15. | Conclusion 14 India could push its ambition to target 1,041 billion units of renewable energy electricity in 2030. This is greater than the generation from all other sources in 2013-14 This ambition will come at a cost – – To the entire economy – To individual households Leadership from the Major Emitting Regions has not been forthcoming When compared with China, India has shown leadership in the climate arena and continues to do so Highly vulnerable countries like India need to act on two fronts – – Press major emitters to increase their mitigation targets – Increase their ambition to reduce the vulnerability of its own population Technology partnerships and financial mechanisms need to be important pillars of any new agreement There is a need to formulate a framework to assess the capacity of developing countries to commit to climate actions

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