1. Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives

2. What are some of the key current trends in the Michigan labor market? What are likely to be some of the key future trends in the Michigan labor market? For some of Michigans key sectors: What are the key factors driving current job demand in those industries? What may be some of the factors impacting future job demand in these sectors? Key Factors Driving Job Demand

3. Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, part of the Department of Technology, Management and Budget Responsible for producing and publishing information and analysis on the Michigan workforce and the states regions and counties Most of our staff is located in Detroit, but a few economic analysts are situated in Lansing and other Michigan regions Information on employment, unemployment, industry job trends, skill sets, occupations, wages, demographics of the labor pool, etc. Who We Are…

4. Key Recent Labor Market Trends in Michigan Labor force decline may have bottomed out Michigan workforce levels fell for six consecutive years from 2007-2012 Workforce levels have begun to stabilize this year; and have increased each of the first six months in 2013 Michigan jobless rate may fall in 2013 for fourth consecutive year, but remains above pre-recessionary level Far fewer layoffs recently of persons with jobs, but job market remains very competitive for the unemployed Average duration of unemployment at a very high level; about 41 weeks

5. Jobless Rate Gap (Michigan vs. U.S.) Has Narrowed Since 2009 Michigan Rate Still Above 2007 Levels

6. Recent Trends in Jobs Payroll jobs should advance in Michigan in 2013 for the third consecutive year Michigan job gains over the last several years: Manufacturing Health care Technical services Temporary help services Restaurants Mortgage banking Job losses primarily in government No evidence yet of job recovery in construction

7. Recent Trends in Job Openings Michigan top occupations with online job vacancies: Registered nurses Truck drivers Retail sales workers and managers Industrial engineers Customer service representatives Mechanical engineers Computer systems analysts Faster openings growth over year in management, professional, installation & repair, construction, health care support, and transportation occupations Declines over year in clerical and sales job postings Diverse set of industry sectors posting jobs

8. Potential Future Trends in the Michigan Labor Market Michigan population and labor force growth expected to be more modest than national average Aging of the workforce will impact demand for goods and services, and produce job openings for replacement workers Above average job growth expected for jobs requiring an associates, bachelors, or masters degree Continued upskilling of jobs expected in some sectors in terms of educational/training requirements Additional educational attainment will continue to be associated with lower unemployment rates and higher wages

9. Michigan Health Care Jobs Record Job Levels in 2013

10. Only sector in Michigan with continuous job expansion even through the recession Strong job gains in doctors offices, hospitals, home health care, social services Investment in health care technology has created jobs in Michigan Several prestigious medical centers in Michigan attract patients and conduct medical research The aging of the Michigan population has generated increased demand for health services Health Care Recent Factors Driving Job Demand

11. Continued aging of the population – Baby-boom generation will be entirely 55+ by 2020 Health status of the population Emphasis on preventative care and home care could change dynamics of job demand Continued pace of investment in health care technology Health care labor supply – will need to replace an aging health care workforce Health care reform and the need for cost containment in the overall health care system Health Care Factors That May Impact Future Job Demand

12. Michigan Professional & Technical Services Jobs Jobs at Highest Level Since 2002

13. Sector is a key source of knowledge jobs for the Michigan economy; many high skill–high wage positions Strong recent job additions in Engineering services, IT services, Research and development Michigan highly ranked nationally in number and share of science and engineering jobs Strong recovery of auto industry has promoted much of the recent job expansion in this sector Increased jobs in business consulting and IT services have benefited by rebound in business investment after recession Professional & Technical Services Recent Factors Driving Job Demand

14. Michigans competitive advantage: A very high current share of jobs in engineering services Future concentration of white collar technical jobs related to the auto industry Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of IT functions Technical jobs comprise an increased share of total jobs across many industries, leading to overall job gains Technical services labor supply Highly educated with most jobs requiring bachelors, associates degrees and above Women are underrepresented in IT and engineering positions Professional & Technical Services Factors That May Impact Future Job Demand

15. Michigan Manufacturing Jobs Led Job Recovery Since Recession

16. Manufacturing jobs in Michigan Cut in almost half from 1999 to 2009 Sector is top source of job growth over last year in Michigan economy Recent job expansion primarily reflects strong rebound in domestic auto sales and auto production Significant levels of investment in Michigan auto assembly operations Job advances since 2009 reflect both recalls of laid off workers and new hires Broad gains, with job growth rates of over 25 percent since 2009 in fabricated metals, plastics, primary metals, autos, and machinery manufacturing Manufacturing Recent Factors Driving Job Demand

17. Michigans competitive advantage: Skilled labor supply in advanced manufacturing production and auto-related design and engineering Productivity gains and automation will tend to limit long- term job expansion in manufacturing Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of production work Michigan manufacturing success in export markets Labor supply issues Production jobs increasingly require technical education and skill Young people will need to be attracted to production occupations to replace an aging workforce Manufacturing Factors That May Impact Future Job Demand

18. Michigan Employment Services Jobs Rapid Response to Improved Post-Recession Economic Conditions

19. High sensitivity to economic conditions 24 percent job drop in Michigan from 2007 to 2009 All of this job loss recovered in 2010-2012 Temporary help sector now supplies labor to a wide range of private and public employers Not all statistics on job gains in this industry reflect new jobs; some reflects a shift in jobs to temporary agencies or professional employer organizations Temporary help jobs increasingly used in early stages of an economic recovery? Employment Services Recent Factors Driving Job Demand

20. Will employers increase utilization of a just-in-time labor supply? Increased staffing flexibility Quality of the temporary workforce and training issues Some workers in temporary jobs may value mobility across job assignments; others may prefer to migrate into permanent work through a temporary assignment Temporary workforce now has wider diversity in occupations and skill levels than before Average weekly wage in employment services only two- thirds of wage for all private sector jobs Employment Services Factors That May Impact Future Job Demand

21. Michigan Restaurant Industry Jobs Jobs Rebound to 2007 Levels

22. Recent restaurant sector job growth well above all-industry average June 2012-June 2013 Michigan Total Jobs: +1.4 percent Michigan Restaurant sector jobs: +3.7 percent Significant gain occurred in 2012 in the number of restaurant establishments in Michigan Disposable income gains positive in Michigan for 3 consecutive years: 2010: +2.8 percent 2011: +4.2 percent 2012: +3.2 percent Restaurants Recent Factors Driving Job Demand

23. Population growth Overall economic health Disposable income growth Consumer confidence Consumer preferences Interest in local sourcing of food and nutrition Restaurants Factors That May Impact Future Job Demand

24. DTMB Labor Market Information Website (www.michigan.gov/lmi) Contains current monthly and quarterly data on the Michigan and regional job markets Economic data can be downloaded on a customized basis using Data Explorer tool Many publications with information on regional workforce trends Employment, unemployment, industries, occupations, forecasts, more

25. Other Useful Websites Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov Census Bureau www.census.gov American Community Survey www.census.gov/acs/www OnTheMap http://onthemap.ces.census.gov Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov

26. Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan For additional information: Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Bruce Weaver Manager of Labor Market Analysis 313.456.3091 weaverb1@michigan.gov Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmiwww.michigan.gov/lmi