1. Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY SA FISHING INDUSTRY

2. OUTLINE I. Fish Stock Assessment and Management II. The current status of the major SA renewable marine resources III. Associated SA fisheries issues Ecosystem considerations Management /governance challenges Rights issues IV. The international horizon

3. FISH STOCK ASSESSMENTS DATA SERIES AVAILABLE Catch Catch rate Surveys Length/Age composition of catch Tag-recapture. Use maths/stats modelling to find the time series of abundance and productivity of the resource which is most compatible with these data

4. FISH STOCK MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES Maximum sustainable yield - MSY To get that reduce abundance to about 50% of pristine Difficult to estimate MSY or what stock abundance will produce it Fish stocks fluctuate considerably – broadly more parents lead to more recruits, but there’s substantial variability – broadly, avoid catches which would drive stocks too low For major species, next year’s Total Allowable Catches (TACs) are set using pre-agreed decision rules (e.g. resource abundance increases means TAC will increase)

5. SHALLOW-WATER HAKE

6. DEEP-WATER HAKE

7. HAKE Two species : shallow –water OK; Two species : shallow –water OK; deep-water recovered but down turn expected deep-water recovered but down turn expected Av catch 2009-2012: 135 000 t Av catch 2009-2012: 135 000 t Worth more than all the other fisheries together Worth more than all the other fisheries together Directly employs ~ 8000 Directly employs ~ 8000 Exports 70% ; worth ~ R 2.5 billion Exports 70% ; worth ~ R 2.5 billion Marine Stewardship Council certification  Only certified fishery in Africa  Loss certification  loss of 40% of 5-year NPV plus 5000 – 10000 direct and related jobs

8. SARDINE

9. ANCHOVY

10. SARDINE AND ANCHOVY STATUS Sardine – concerns with a long period of poor recruitment since the boom at the turn of the century Anchovy – good; resource underutilised. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 Sardine~ 95 000 t Anchovy~ 200 000 t.ISSUES Are there separate sardine stocks in Western and Eastern Cape? Impact of fishing on food available for birds (penguins)

11. WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER

12. STATUS Very poor – about 3% of pristine abundance. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 2 300 t.ISSUES Concerns about increases in poaching Past attempts at achieving recovery hardly successful But there are signs of a short-term improvement

13. ABALONE

14. ABALONESTATUS Bad and getting worse. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 100 t (legal).ISSUES Poaching dwarfs legal take – by a factor ~ 10 If poaching continues at present levels, which are NOT sustainable, resource will be commercially extinct in a decade

15. SQUID

16. SQUIDSTATUS A little below optimal. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 9 000 t.ISSUES Recent low availability

17. SOUTH COAST ROCK LOBSTER

18. STATUSOptimal. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 330 t.ISSUES Would prefer fishery-independent survey to be available as well as CPUE to index abundance

19. HORSE MACKEREL

20. STATUS Probably underutilised. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 35 000t.ISSUES Recent low availability

21. KINGKLIP

22. MONK

23. KINGKLIP AND MONK STATUS Kingklip now recovered from past longline overharvest Monk “OK” – also increasing. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 Kingklip~ 2 800t Monk~ 7 300t.ISSUES How many kingklip stocks Monk status unclear in absolute terms

24. PEI TOOTHFISH

25. STATUS Probably above optimal. AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 250t.ISSUES Previous estimates about the impact of the initial illegal catch seem to have been too large

26. OVERALL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMARY Recent annual catch (t) Status Hake135 000 GR Sardine 95 000ORA Anchovy200 000GR+ West coast lobster 2 300RED Abalone 100RED- Squid 9 000GR- South coast lobster 330GR Horse mackerel 35 000GR- Kingklip 2 800GR Monk 7 300GR- PEI Toothfish 250GR

27. RESOURCES NOT COVERED Round herring GR+ Sole GR- Tuna (international ) ORA (var) Many line fish species RED+ VIEWED OVERALL Offshore resources OK Offshore resources OK Inshore resources IN TROUBLE (poaching and excess effort) Inshore resources IN TROUBLE (poaching and excess effort)

28. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES ECOSYSTEM CONSIDERATIONS Bycatch controls (inshore trawl fishery) (sharks) Food for marine predators (birds) Habitat concerns MPAs More to preserve some pristine habitat than to improve fisheries yields Effort limitation mechanism for inshore fisheries

29. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES MANAGEMENT/GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES Ageing research staff Ageing research staff Rapidly changing Ministers and senior staff Rapidly changing Ministers and senior staff Recent organisational shortfalls Recent organisational shortfalls Research vessel lengthy non-availability Suspension of observer programme (MSC requirement) Delayed rights re-allocation process Little progress in reducing abalone/lobster poaching

30. ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES RIGHTS ISSUES Secure long term rights Secure long term rights Needed to provide conservation incentive Flawed fixed period basis in Act needs correction Re-distribution – are paper quotas avoidable? Small scale policy Small scale policy Little existing spare capacity amongst resources Have expectations ben unrealistically raised? Absence of detail, particularly regarding compliance systems

31. THE INTERNATIONAL HORIZON FISHERIES vs ENVIRONMENT DEPTS Poor RFMO performance (allocation issue). Will the UN step in? RECOVERING DEPLETED STOCKS With inexact science, will industries sacrifice now for future gains? Upward trend in the fisheries in the developed western world. Will a rising real cost of fuel be the primary determinant? ECOLABELING Raising the bar vs applicability in the developing world. Will this conflict lead to implosion? SCIENTISTS vs MANAGERS Pre-agreed decision rules (MPs) vs Flexibility/negotiation Which will win? A continued risk of “too little too late”?

32. Thank you for your attention With thanks for assistance in slide preparation from: Liam Furman and in developing the plots themselves: Anabela Brandao Carryn de Moor Jean Glazer Susan Johnston Rebecca Rademeyer