1. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and Urban Prediction Needs in China LIANG Feng and WANG Jianjie Beijing Meteorological Bureau, CMA

2. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Outline Urban Prediction needs in China Overview of B08FDP Benefits and experiences

3. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Urbanization in China Urbanization speed up with the rapid development of economy. 2006: 32.53% (Beijing, 75.6%) Referenced from CIUDSRC’s report, 12 Dec. 2008 Urbanization Rate of China

4. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Thunderstorm Extreme local rainfall Heavy fog Hail Huge population density in Urban area City operation systems are very fragile and sensitive to weather changes Snow

5. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Needs for Urban Prediction End usersTargetsRequirements Public (individual persons)* Plan outdoor activities Daily forecasts for different places of the city, Yes or No Decision makers (Government, organizations) Safe and smooth operation of the city Severe weather forecasts from short-range to nowcasts and warnings, location & intensity Success of the important events High impact weather forecasts * From 2005 to 2008, street surveys were conducted for citizens and tourists in Beijing. Over 8,000 questionnaires were collected.

6. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Sharp variation in terrain (30-2000 m). More convective systems in summer Major challenge for 2008 Olympic Weather Service – detail rainfall forecast Total area ： 16,800km 2 Mountainous ： 62% Urban ： 1,040km 2 40N

7. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Overview of B08FDP B08FDP was endorsed By 7th session of WWRP SSC in Oct. 2004 Mission: Through international collaboration, to demonstrate and quantify the benefits during the 2008 Olympic period of an end-to-end nowcasting weather Service (0-6 h) focused on high impact weather and based on latest science and technology.

8. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea 8 nowcasting systems: International Participants BJANC (BMB&NCAR), CARDS (MSC), GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA), MAPLE (McGill & WDT), NIWOT (NCAR), STEPS (BOM), SWIRLS (HKO), TIFS (BOM) + Verification (RTFV) SEIA WG

9. Core steps of B08FDP 2005 Testing & Training Strategic Plan System trials Local Environment & Systems Development Demonstration Training workshops Systems & infrastructure improvement 200620072008 Planning & Developing Demo. Warm up (20 days) IOP (25day s) Annual workshop Summary Annual Implementation Plan

10. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea 25/8 1/8 15/7 20/9 Intensive Operation Period Final Demonstration (68 days) Local champions on duty only 7/7 2nd training workshop Schedule of the 2008 Forecast Demonstration 25/6 Warm up (20 days) Real time data started System frozen System update

11. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Real time verification Severe weather Individual product Storm track PoP QPF reflectivity 1) Products for meteorologists Totally, 179 forecasts were issued through the blog of the FDP web during the demo.

12. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea 16 experts of the B08FDP on duty at BMB

13. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Some B08FDP products (warning, precipitation forecast, storm track, etc.) will be put on Beijing Olympic weather services webpage for public 2) Products for public Training 120 volunteers to use and feedback

14. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Survey to decision-makers B08FDP contributed to the improved satisfaction of end-users on the nowcasting service

15. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Benefits for CMA/BMB Successful and supportive nowcasting technology transfer for Beijing Olympics Enhanced use of OBS in nowcasting –Improvements in the infrastructure (e.g., radar synchronization, inter-radar calibration) –Efficient data framework (e.g., nowcast data format standards established) –Efficient and effective use of high resolution observation network

16. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea New Concepts, new strategy: –Verification: spatial verification, real-time verification… –Impact studies Extensive surveys conducted with different end users of nowcasting products Implementation of user-oriented service strategy Improving public understanding on nowcasting Knowledge transfer –2010: Shanghai EXPO, Guangzhou 16th Asian Games –2011: Shenzhen 26th Summer Universiade

17. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Benefits for all participants Developments of new approaches to nowcasting –Severe weather and precipitation nowcasting diagnostics –Blending extrapolation of radar echoes with NWP products –Ensemble and probability based nowcasts –Convective initiation and effective use of the human –Real-time verification Inter-comparison of nowcasting algorithms

18. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Advanced end-to-end nowcast weather service: a prototype for future –Forecast processes that enabled effective use of the nowcast systems without overloading the forecasters –Successful technology transfer to operations (e.g., training sessions, mentoring and interaction with experts) –Production of guidance products for a variety of users (internal and external) –Effective interaction with decision maker Good Dataset for future researches

19. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea  A shared and articulated vision, along with a common set of goals and objectives clearly defined  Strong leadership, careful project management, effective communication, and follow up of tasks  Actively and fully engaged local organization in the collaborative integration and advanced system design, being eager to adapt and accept new technology  Actively committed experts from participating organizations to the project  Sufficient resources for the project Keys for a successful FDP

20. B08 Project November 2009 Incheon, Republic of Korea Acknowledgement for all B08FDP international participants Thanks for your attention