1. 1 Judith Hamel, Strategic Policy and Priorities Citizenship and Immigration Canada Judith Hamel, Strategic Policy and Priorities Citizenship and Immigration Canada Temporary Foreign Workers and Foreign Students as Immigrants – Context

2. 2 This document links the current labour market and demographic context with the potential benefits of having a better seamless process for transitioning between temporary and permanent status, a policy still under development.

3. 3 Outline of the presentation : The Labour Market Today The Labour Market Tomorrow The Policy Framework Policy Objectives -- of a seamless transition from temporary to permanent status

4. 4 Specific local skill shortages are becoming increasingly apparent… 66% of employers reports having trouble hiring the skilled workers they need; 49% report that skill shortages hamper their ability to meet demand (55% for Western Canada); Business, public sector and union leaders identify skilled worker shortages as their 2nd main concern, behind tax issues; Overall, unemployment is at its lowest level in 30 years and in Alberta, average hourly wages rose 7.4% last year. TODAY

5. 5 In an international study by Manpower Inc. Canada ranked 2nd in terms of worker shortages (at all skill levels)… Top ten of occupations in demand: 1. Sales Representatives * 2. Customer Service Representatives/Customer Support * 3. Engineers 4. Drivers * 5. Mechanics 6. Labourers * 7. Chefs/Cooks 8. Electricians 9. Skilled Trades 10. Nurses * Not eligible under Federal Skilled Workers Program TODAY

6. 6 A specific example: The energy sector Workforce is aging rapidly while there is an important employment boom; Number of jobs has tripled over the last decade; For the oil sands alone, the operations workforce is projected to more than double, from 40,000 person-years in 2005 to over 100,000 person-years by 2010. Alberta is forecasting a 100,000 shortfall in its workforce over the next 10 years. TODAY

7. 7 Global population growth will be in developing / least developed countries Canadas share of world population is.5% and declining Will have significant impacts in terms of: Pressure to migrate to more affluent West Security/health Challenges of meeting development goals Increased global competition for skilled workers: Demographic decline in developed regions Emerging markets - India, China and Brazil Maturing economies will require workers with knowledge 2000 - 2050 WORLD: Projected Population Increase Developed Regions Less-developed Regions TOTAL 1.2 5.3 6.5 2005 1.2 7.8 9.0 2050 TOMORROW

8. 8 SCHOOL LEAVERS entering labour force (post-secondary, college and high school graduates and drop-outs) LABOUR FORCE 1984-1988 1994-1998 2005-2015 In-flow 510,000 LEAVING EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM 543,000 610,000 IMMIGRATION CONTRIBUTES 120,000 per year Demographic factors are leading to an ageing population and slowing labour force growth: immigration cant reverse these trends Sometime between 2011 and 2016, new Canadian school leavers entering the labour force will only be sufficient to off-set labour force requirements (means no natural labour force growth) Labour force growth, along with productivity gains, are key to a rising standard of living Thus, in the absence of significant stronger productivity growth, standard of living growth will slow without labour force expansion through immigration Demographic factors are leading to an ageing population and slowing labour force growth: immigration cant reverse these trends Sometime between 2011 and 2016, new Canadian school leavers entering the labour force will only be sufficient to off-set labour force requirements (means no natural labour force growth) Labour force growth, along with productivity gains, are key to a rising standard of living Thus, in the absence of significant stronger productivity growth, standard of living growth will slow without labour force expansion through immigration TOMORROW

9. 9 Canadas slowing population growth will create new economic challenges in the coming decades Immigration can help mitigate future growth challenges: –supporting Canadas economic prosperity as the number of Canadian entrants to the labour force declines –adding to natural population growth –immigration can help address future labour market shortages ensuring employer needs are addressed which would at the same time support better economic outcomes for the immigrants themselves. TOMORROW

10. 10 Under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) the principal objective corresponding to the Economic Classes of immigrants is: to support the development of a strong and prosperous Canadian economy, in which the benefits of immigration are shared across all regions of Canada - Section 3(1) In moving forward to develop a policy framework we must address key challenges: 1.Expanding the benefits of immigration beyond Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver; 2.Better match selection mechanisms with labour market needs. POLICY FRAMEWORK

11. 11 VANCOUVER EDMONTON CALGARY WINNIPEG WINDSOR TORONTO MONTRÉAL QUÉBEC 0.7 LONDON KITCHENER HAMILTON OTTAWA-GATINEAU 13.9 2.4 42.8 1.7 0.6 1.2 0.8 2.3 14.1 4.2 2.2 P E R C E N T A G E D I S T R I B U T I O N YUKON – 0.02% NORTHWEST TERRITORIES – 0.03% NUNAVUT – 0.0% YUKON – 0.02% NORTHWEST TERRITORIES – 0.03% NUNAVUT – 0.0% 2005 IN-FLOWS OF PERMANENT RESIDENTS: By Top Twelve Census Metropolitan Areas IN-FLOWS By Province BRITISH COLUMBIA 17.0 ALBERTA 7.3 SASKATCHEWAN 0.8 MANITOBA 3.0 ONTARIO 53.5 QUEBEC 16.5 NEW BRUNSWICK 0.4 NOVA SCOTIA 0.7 NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR 0.1 PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 0.1 P E R C E N T A G E D I S T R I B U T I O N Settlement Patterns of Permanent Residents: Highly concentrated in MTV Not all regions are benefiting from immigration Jobs may go unfilled in some regions Immigration is concentrated in a few large urban centres [75% of immigrants settling in either Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver (MTV)] There are labour market and population needs across the country and growing interest among provinces, territories, and communities to use immigration to address these needs #1: EXPANDING THE BENEFITS

12. 12 DRAFT – MARCH 15/06 #2: BETTER MATCH SELECTION WITH L.M. NEEDS

13. 13 Easier transition from temporary to permanent status could have positive impacts on the immigration systems capacity to respond to labour market needs more quickly. Other policy options could also be developed (promotion and recruitment, new integration tools and changes to the selection mechanisms…). But immigration should not be perceived as the silver bullet… Also need: investment to increase productivity, domestic training inclusion in the workforce of underrepresented groups … CONCLUSION