1. Impact of Climate Change on Plant Community Composition and Ecosystem Function in MOJN Parks Seth Munson, Jayne Belnap, Robert Webb (USGS) Nita Tallent (NPS) May 1964 April 1999 Bob Webb

2.  Many NPS management decisions occur at a local, short-term scale, but climate change is occurring at a large scale with long-term consequences, including exotic plant species invasions, shrub encroachment, and increased fire risk.  These consequences are especially challenging in MOJN parks, which are expected to warm faster than many other parts of the country and experience altered precipitation, which may result in reduced soil moisture in an already water-limited environment.  Anticipating shifts in plant community composition and cover due to climate change, a key vital sign and determinant of ecosystem processes, requires a regional assessment using long-term data. Research Need

3. Objectives  Determine which plant species and functional types are vulnerable to climate change and forecast potential regional shifts in plant community composition  Identify climate thresholds that are indicative of changes in plant growth  Document the magnitude of change in plant species performance over a climate gradient

4.  Based on work in SODN, CHDN, and NCPN ◦ Select and compile long-term vegetation and climate datasets from MOJN parks and nearby protected areas ◦ Couple climate and vegetation datasets to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability and forecast how plant communities will shift in composition ◦ Address management implications of shifts (i.e., changes in food and habitat for wildlife, fire regime, erosion potential, etc.) 4

5.  Park and Network Specific Information Briefs  NPS Technical Reports  Peer-reviewed publications  For links to existing products from NCPN and SODN: https://profile.usgs.gov/smunson/ 5

6. Goals for 2012  Find and synthesize long-term climate and vegetation datasets from MOJN parks and protected areas  Quality assess/control datasets for accuracy  Perform cross-site analyses on compiled data to determine changes in plant species abundance across MOJN parks in response to climate  When possible, integrate analyses with repeat photographs that exist throughout the region  Seek additional funding to support effort (USGS National Park Monitoring Program, Mendenhall Fellowship, etc.)

7. Webinar The Impact of Climate on Plant Species Performance in Mojave Desert National Parks: Forecasting Regional, Long-term Effects to Meet Management Needs Seth Munson, Robert Webb - U.S. Geological Survey, Nita Tallent - National Park Service April 10, 2012 10 -11 Emailing details of the webinar Arranging park visits