1. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Local effects of cryospheric change on agriculture and pasture in Trans Himalaya Keshav Prasad Paudel Keshav.paudel@geog.uib.no Department of Geography University of Bergen, Norway

2. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Climate change impact - Deglaciation, snow cover & permafrost decline - GLOF, change in hydrological regime & wetland Three levels of impact – Global feedback, downstream & local effects The Himalayan cryosphere

3. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Trans Himalaya region Rain shadow of the great Himalaya High rate of warming

4. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Trans Himalayan agroopastoralism Agropastoral production

5. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Cryosphere: main source of water Snow/ice melt water In situ snowmelt and runoff from the local catchment

6. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Study area

7. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Study area

8. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Changes in cryosphere  Decline in perennial snow and ice covered area (-2.69±0.87%) during 2000-2010.  Slightly declining annual maximum extent of seasonal snow cover area (-0.53% yr -1 )  Very high variability of snow cover duration (COV > 50% in agropastoral area)  Significant decline in snow cover duration in agriculture and rangelands (<4000 m.)  The peak snow cover period delayed by 6.7 days yr -1

9. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Local perceptions  Reduction in snowfall over time -decline in intensity -changes in timing of snow -increased rainfall instead of snow (in Manang and southern belt)  Decline in snow accumulation and duration (drying spring) - shorten seasonal snow cover - thaw out in advance of spring season  Experienced less water -Less water in creek -Observed retreat of glacier

10. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Source: Aase, et. al., 2009, Area, DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00911.x, pages 228-238, Reconstruction on the basis of terminal glacier Reconstruction after photo by Toni Hagen Gangapurna glacier

11. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Impact on agriculture  Land abandonment (40 % in Upper Mustang)  Increased crop failure  Increased conflict over water

12. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Impact on rangeland  Water points dried up  Degraded patches in south facing slope - intensification of periglacial processes  Declining rangeland production

13. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Changes in phenology Start of growing seasonLength of growing season

14. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Vegetation-snow cover relation Relation between pre-monsoon vegetation and snow cover duration Mustang Manang Snow covered days Time integrated (Apr- Jun) NDVI

15. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Concluding remarks  Snow cover dynamics – livelihood of local people  Land abandonment, decline production and rangeland degradation  The size of effects of cryospheric change also depend on the social factors (human choice of action, technology development and social resilience)

16. Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 20116 th NRF Open Assembly Thank you