1. Last Ice Area Project WWF Bruno Tremblay – David Huard David Huard Solution McGill University

2. Minimum Sea Ice Extent

3. Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent NSIDC, 2012 Ice Extent (million km 2 ) Year

4. Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent NSIDC, 2012 Ice Extent (million km 2 ) Year 7.50 3.75

5. September Sea Ice Volume

6. Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Volume PIOMAS Ice Volume (1000 km 3 ) Year

7. Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Volume PIOMAS Ice Volume (1000 km 3 ) Year 16.0 4.0

8. Minimum Sea Ice Extent Projections Most models project at least some September sea ice through the end of the century Based on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006

9. Ice Albedo Feedback

10. Consensus on Likely Location of the Last Sea Ice Area Observations – Ice Age CCSM

11. Sea Ice Loss Pattern

12. THIN THICK

13. Minimum Ice Extent Animation Holland Bitz Tremblay, 2006

14. Part I Over 30 participating GCMs Over 30 participating GCMs Diagnostics: Diagnostics: Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Thickness Sea Ice Thickness Snow Depth Snow Depth Simulations Simulations Historical period: 1979-1999 Historical period: 1979-1999 21 st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,…, 2090- 2100 21 st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,…, 2090- 2100 Future Sea ice Condition from Low Resolution Climate Models

15. Part II MITgcm MITgcm Diagnostics: Diagnostics: Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Thickness Sea Ice Thickness Snow Depth Snow Depth Simulations Simulations 21 st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,…, 2090- 2100 21 st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,…, 2090- 2100 Future Sea ice Condition from High Resolution Regional Models

16. Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Pan-Arctic Paste Animations Here

17. Sea Ice Maximum MITgcm – PanArctic Paste Animations Here

18. Projected May Sea Ice Concentration 18 Status Review of the Ringed Seal (Phoca hispida) B. P. Kelly, J. L. Bengtson, P. L. Boveng, M. F. Cameron, S. P. Dahle, J. K. Jansen, E. A. Logerwell, J. E. Overland, C. L. Sabine, G. T. Waring, and J. M. Wilder December 2010 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

19. Projected July Sea Ice Concentration 19 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

20. Projected November Sea Ice Concentration 20 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

21. STOP HERE

22. Ice Origin

23. Sea Ice Concentrations GFDL

24. Sea Ice Thickness GFDL

25. Snow Depth GFDL

26. Ice free days IPSL-CM5A 2080-2090

27. Goal Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Impact on ice dependent species Impact on ice dependent species

28. Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Zoom on CAA Paste Animations Here