1. Top-level Research Initiative Interaction between climate change and cryosphere Magnus Friberg Chair of Programme Committee TFI annual Conference, 16 September 2010

2. UNEP map of Cryosphere The present Cryosphere

3. The past Cryosphere Understanding feed-back loops 2xCO 2, cold orbit 8.29x10 6 km 3 (Oligocene c. 25 My) 1xCO 2, cold orbit 30.50x10 6 km 3 (Last Glacial Maximum) DeConto et al., Nature, 2008 Future is data poor

4. Onset of glaciations DeConto et al., Nature, 2008 Zachos, Dickens, Zeebe, (2008)

5. Amplifies initial growth Produces hysteresis CO 2 cooling Hysteresis Stability of large ice sheets From DeConto 2010

6. DeConto et al., Nature, 2008 East Antarctic Ice Sheet hysteresis N. Hem ice sheet hysteresis Stability of large ice sheets

7. Trace gases and shortlived climate drivers IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007

8. The Role of Permafrost Walsh et. al 2010, ACIA report

9. The Sea ice extent over time IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007

10. NCoE – ICCC Nordic Centre of Excellence Programme Interaction between Climate Change and the Cryosphere

11. Purpose and rationale The objective of ICCC is to support science driven questions of high interest to society, science, industry and/or national infrastructure. All Nordic countries are effected by the Cryosphere IPCC models performs badly for the Cryosphere Important for industries like hydropower, forestry, fishing, transport, exploration and tourism Nordic Cryosphere research is in many ways world leading

12. Project duration is five years (3+2) Funding covers: Support to researcher and key staff Fellowships for visiting professors Fellowships for post docs Fellowships for PhD students Nordic research schools (research training) Equipment Travel, management and co-ordination Support to ICCC NCoE

13. Objectives of CRAICC – Cryosphere- Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate Role of short-lived climate forcing agents - SLCF Identify and quantify the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback mechanisms and to outline strategies to mitigate Arctic warming Develop Nordic Earth System modelling Supradisciplinary knowledge transfer

14. Objectives of DEFROST To improve our understanding of Arctic terrestrial and shallow sub-sea permafrost interactions with climate To provide improved data on energy exchange, carbon cycling and GHG emissions from terrestrial and near coastal cryospheric environments To improve on climate model capabilities for simulating the feedback processes associated with observed changes in permafrost, snow and ice

15. Objectives of SVALI – Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice A comprehensive joint Nordic research programme to study basic processes (flux of meltwater and icebergs from glaciers) Using remote sensing, airborne and in-situ measurements Carry out advanced Earth system Modelling Focus on glaciers in the Arctic /N-Atlantic area. Establish a Nordic graduate school in cryosphere science and Earth System modelling

16. Features of the centres in the NCoE programme Each NCoE has partners from all five Nordic countries, one including Greenland The NCoE programme has participation from the other Arctic countries (Russia, USA, Canada) and the UK Each NCoE has about 17 partners The NCoE programme involves about 340 researchers Open data policy within and between NCoE’s

17. If the future becomes like the past The horrors of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) Isfjorden viewed from Longyearbyen towards Pyramiden some 50 Million years ago (pCO 2 = 2000ppm) (Nathorst 1910, Backman and Moran 2009)