1. A First Step in Decision Support Tools for Humanitarian Assistance during Catastrophic Disasters: Modeling Hazard Generated Needs John R. Harrald Frank Fiedrich Theresa I. Jefferson Clinton Mexted-Freeman Sebnem Sener

2. Catastrophic Preparedness Catastrophic events exceed our ability to (1)accurately anticipate hazard generated humanitarian needs, (2)to develop the capacity and capability to meet these needs, (3)to deploy adequate resources to minimize human suffering Recent Examples The US response to Hurricane Katrina (2005) The Pakistan/Kashmir earthquake (2005), the Andaman Nicobar (Aceh) earthquake and tsunami (2004) New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Preparedness Project funded by FEMA, Project Team: University of Illinois Mid American Earthquake Center George Washington University Institute for Crisis Disaster and Risk Management IEM, Inc

4. Hazard-Response Generated Needs Examples: Minimizing impact to the population Care for the injured and ill Processing fatalities Hazard-related welfare needs Protection against continuing threat Maintaining community order Promoting optimal recovery Examples: Achieving/maintaining situational awareness Information processing Effective decision-making Mobilizing & utilizing resources Coordinating actions across stovepipes Communication-response & public Political and bureaucratic issues

5. Developing Scenario-driven Catastrophic Plans Hazard-generated welfare needs required for preparedness and response Loss estimation variables used to predict hazard generated welfare needs Medical supplies (pharmaceuticals) Housing damage, population demographics, power loss, transportation network loss, damage to medical facilities Temporary shelter/temporary housing Housing damage, population demographics, income distribution of population, owner/renter distribution Mass feeding Housing damage, population demographics, power loss, transportation infrastructure Critical commodities (water, food, ice) Impact on water infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, housing damage, population demographics

6. Modeling and Decision Support Transition from “doing the best we can with what we have” “being prepared to do what is needed” Improved methods and models are required Methods should be based on pre-event scenario estimates, combined with pre- event capabilities assessments, allowing the development of scenario driven catastrophic planning HAZUS-MH Multi-attribute model (Harrald) funded by American Red Cross Extended in projects funded by –the National Science Foundation –conducted in partnership with the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) –used as a primary source for earthquake mass care preparedness planning in the San Francisco Bay Area No adequate models for hazard generated needs such as the required capacity for feeding and mass care commodities as well as medical requirements

7. Implications For Humanitarian Assistance Decision Support Systems Figure 2

8. The New Madrid Seismic Zone Project The project objective is to bridge the gap between loss estimation modeling & preparedness and response decision making which is one of the firsts in this area. Figure 3