1. Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES

2. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project  Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009  Supported by €15M of European Commission funding, coordinated by Met Office Hadley Centre  67 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US we welcome requests from new groups to participate (unfunded)  Collaborates with other international projects  Brings together a wide range of climate change-related research communities Who, where, when

3. Page 3GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Output / products:  Multi-model RCM projections for Europe at 25km  Significant contribution to IPCC AR4  Investigating probabilistic methods for “s2d2c” timescales for range of models to explore impacts  Earth system model simulations, will use a mitigation emissions scenario developed within ENSEMBLES  Providing information relevant to IPCC planning  Web-based statistical tools for finer scale information  Daily gridded dataset for Europe, + uncertainty estimates

4. Page 4GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Project output 2004-2007  150 publications  20 book contributions  Approx 500 conference presentations These numbers do not include the planned project output (conferences, workshops etc)

5. Page 5GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES Strategic Objectives Project Goal: Overall goal is to maintain and extend European pre- eminence in the provision of policy relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society  Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global and regional climate models, validated against observations and analyses, to work towards a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales  Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System  Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, forestry, health, energy, water resources, insurance We are aiming to increase availability of scientific knowledge and provision of relevant information related to the impacts of climate change How

6. Page 6GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Comparison of calculated storm loss based on ERA-40 with insurance data for Germany. Correlations between calculated loss and insurance date rate between 0.85-0.9

7. Page 7GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 North Atlantic Eastern North Pacific South Pacific Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones Western North Pacific F. Vitart (ECMWF)

8. Page 8GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Seasonal crop forecast using an ensemble crop yield model 63 ensemble members Multi-model ensemble for predicting seasonal groundnut yield in Gujarat, India, 1998, from Challinor et al. (2005). Observed 775 kg ha -1 713 kg ha -1 Model average

9. Page 9GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES mitigation emissions scenario  Uses proposed IPCC “AR5” design  Earth system models will be driven by GHG concentrations, rather than emissions. Carbon fluxes give implied emissions  Will inform details of AR5 design and how to scientifically exploit the runs New emissions scenario developed  IPCC SRES A1B baseline, stabilise towards 450ppmv CO 2eq  provides information towards EU goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels

10. Page 10GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 T2m response E1 scenario Taken from E. Roeckner, RT2A presentation ENSEMBLES GA 2008, Santander, Spain

11. Page 11GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Observations, 1864-2003 Projected temperature extremes

12. Page 12GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Precipitation changes to 2090-2099

13. Page 13GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ECHAMHIRHAM Change in mean precipitation (%) July August September

14. Page 14GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Mean Changes in precipitation frequency (%) July-August-September > 99% percentile

15. Page 15GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Projected change in summer-average precipitation over Europe - an ensemble of model simulations. -15 0 15 % change in 2050s

16. Page 16GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Response surface modelling of projected risk of climate change impact

17. Page 17GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Likelihood of low water levels in Lake Mälaren, Sweden (perturbed physics exp.) Use of a response surface Approach – regional scale

18. Page 18GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Risk probability of low crop productivity - Durum wheat, perturbed physics experiment* * * Delta Risk was calculated as differences between the percentage of yields that do not exceed yield threshold (20 percentile) in present and A1b scenarios

19. Page 19GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 Projections of bark beetle infestation in northern European forests

20. Page 20GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008