1. 2016 EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe
Hans-Martin Füssel
Project manager - Climate change impacts and adaptation
2015 EIONET Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
15–16 June 2015, Copenhagen

2. Previous EEA reports on climate change and its impacts in Europe
Changes over time: more indicators, growing emphasis on societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (separate adaptation reports since 2013) 2

3. Content and structure of the 2012 CCIV report
Executive Summary
Technical Summary
1. Introduction
2. Changes in the climate system
Key climate variables (5)
Cryosphere (6)
3. Climate impacts on environmental systems
Oceans and marine environment (5)
Coastal zones (2)
Freshwater quantity and quality (5)
Terrestrial ecosystems (5)
Soil (3)
4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health
Agriculture (4)
Forests and forestry (2)
Fisheries and aquaculture
Human health (4)
Energy (1)
Transport
Tourism
5. Vulnerability to climate change
River flooding, water scarcity and droughts
Integrated assessment of vulnerability
Cities and urban areas
Damage costs (1)
6. Indicator and data needs
(x): Number of indicators 3

4. EEA indicators on climate change and impacts (majority updated in 2014)
Category
Indicators
Key climate variables
Global and European temperature
Temperature extremes
Mean precipitation
Precipitation extremes
Storms
Soil
Soil organic carbon
Soil erosion
Soil moisture
Cryosphere
Snow cover
Arctic and Baltic sea ice
Greenland ice sheet
Glaciers
Permafrost
Agriculture
Growing season for agricultural crops
Agrophenology
Water-limited crop productivity
Irrigation water requirement
Oceans, marine environment, coastal areas
Ocean acidification
Ocean heat content
Sea surface temperature
Phenology of marine species
Distribution of marine species
Global and European sea level rise
Forests and forestry
Forest growth
Forest fires
Freshwater quantity and quality
River flow
River floods
River flow drought
Water temperature
Lake and river ice cover
Human health
Floods and health
Extreme temperatures and health
Air pollution by ozone and health
Vector-borne diseases
Terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems
Plant and fungi phenology
Animal phenology
Distribution of plant species
Distribution and abundance of animal species
Species interactions
Energy
Heating degree days
Vulnerability/risks
Damages from weather and climate events
EEA web site: 4

5. Policy purposes of EEA climate indicators
Tracing global climate change (raising awareness and informing climate change mitigation): e.g. global mean temperature, ocean heat content
Tracing regional climate hazards (informing climate risk management): e.g. regional sea level, extreme precipitation
Assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems and society: e.g. species distribution, agricultural phenology
Assessing the effectiveness of risk management: e.g. floods and health, losses from extreme events

6. Quality criteria for EEA indicators
Thematic and policy relevance: Sensitive to climate change, relevant for policy development (but note different policy purposes) and easily understandable
Full geographic coverage: Ideally Europe (EEA-33 or EEA-39) or other relevant area(s)
Appropriate geographical aggregation (where relevant): Countries, regional seas, etc.
Long time series: Depending on the topic (for climate change at least 30 years); possibly including projections (in particular for climate change)
Reliable data supply: Priority data flows or other institutional arrangement/guarantee
Clear methodology: Methodology is clearly described and repeatable 6

7. Scientific and policy developments since 2012
February 2013: Background Report to the Impact Assessment of the EU Adaptation Strategy (adopted in April 2013)
November 2013: NMI/EASAC Report on extreme weather events in Europe
March 2014: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group II contribution)
April 2014: Report “Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project”
March 2015: Country reports to Commission (Monitoring Mechanism)
Continuous: Implementation of (Sub)National Adaptation Strategies and Action Plans (often including vulnerability/risk assessments)
2015: Report on PESETA-GAP project
2017: Potential Commission Impact Assessment (in connection with the potential revision of the EU Adaptation Strategy in 2017)
From 2016/17 on?: Web portal and regular reports by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Delegated Entity (ECMWF)
EU funded research projects: CLIPC, IMPACT2C, IMPRESSIONS, … 7

8. Objectives of the 2016 EEA CCIV report
Present information on past and projected climate change and impacts on ecosystems and society (primarily through indicators)
Identify systems, sectors and regions most at risk of climate change (in the context of other stressors)
Highlight the need for adaptation actions
Demonstrate how enhanced monitoring, information sharing and research can improve the knowledge base
Identify changes in knowledge compared to previous report 8

9. 2016 EEA indicator report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability (under development)
Coordination by EEA
Authors and contributors:
EEA and European Topic Centres (CCA, BD, ICM)
Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
World Health Organisation
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Other organisations
Data sources:
International databases and reports
(European) research projects and data centres
Academic publications
External Advisory Group: Commission (incl. JRC), EEA Scientific Committee, ECMWF, WHO, ECDC, regional conventions, member countries, etc.
Reviews:
Advisory Group
Eionet
Further experts
2012 EEA report to be updated and improved. 9

10. Stakeholder survey on 2016 EEA CCIV report
Goals
Gain informal feedback on planned 2016 report
Raise awareness of planned 2016 EEA CCIV report
Format
Sent to Commission experts, Eionet, former Advisory Group, international organisations, European networks
Conducted in September 2014
33 responses, including from 16 national governments
Topics
Use and usefulness of the 2012 EEA CCIV report
Potential changes in the 2016 report
Key results
High satisfaction with 2012 EEA CCIV report
Majority of respondents prefers comprehensive 2016 report
Shift focus (somewhat) from climate change to impacts
Further suggestions incorporated into project plan 10

11. Changes from 2012 to 2016 EEA CCIV report
Refocus and moderately reduce the underlying indicator set (with a focus on policy relevance)
Include information on policy context for adaptation (mainstreaming in EU policies, referring to 2014 EEA report)
Improved presentation of information related to extreme climate and weather events (e.g. droughts)
EEA expert workshop was held 18–19 March 2015
Further information on society‘s vulnerability beyond indicators (e.g. European climate change vulnerability/risk assessments; cross-border impacts; regional case studies) 11

12. New sections in the 2016 EEA CCIV report
1.4: Adaptation policies in Europe
3.1: Ecosystems and their services under climate change
4.1: Damages from extreme weather events
5: Cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability assessments
Socio-economic scenarios for Europe
Vulnerability across Europe
Vulnerability to cross-border impacts
Vulnerability in European macro-regions
Vulnerability of urban regions
6.2: Copernicus climate change service 12

13. Main changes to indicator set
New (+)
Discontinued (–)
Merged (>)
Hail
Permafrost soils
Meteorological and hydrological droughts
Marine oxygen content
Marine phenology
Plant and animal phenology
Forest composition and distribution
Lake and river ice cover
Plant and animal distribution
Water and food-borne diseases
Air pollution by ozone
Extreme weather events with impacts
Soil organic carbon
Soil erosion
Forest growth
Species interactions 13

14. Continued gaps in the 2016 EEA CCIV report
Some climate-sensitive issues were (are) not covered due to:
Insufficient data:
industry and manufacturing,
insurance,
infrastructure (except transport),
livestock production,
cultural heritage;
Hard-to-quantify:
aesthetic impacts,
personal well-being;
Speculative attribution:
migration 14

15. Time schedule and next steps
2015
Milestone
Mar
Phase 1 – Project preparation
Expert workshop on extreme weather events (18-19 March)
First meeting of Advisory Group (26 March)
Apr
Phase 2 – Prepare first draft report
EEA visit to JRC-IES (14/15 April)
Second lead authors meeting (28 April)
Aug
First draft (31 July):
Draft assessments and figures for all indicators
Annotated outlines of other chapters
Sept
Review of first draft by Advisory Group
Oct
Phase 3 – Prepare second draft report
Second meeting of Advisory Group (13 October)
Third contributors meeting (week of 26 Oct)
Dec
Second draft report:
Updated draft assessments and figures for all indicators
Full text for all chapters
2016
Jan/ Feb
Phase 4 – Prepare final draft report
Extended Eionet Review (NFPs, NRCs, Advisory Group, other experts)
Mar
EEA contributors meeting
Apr
Phase 5 – Production and publication 
Final draft report sent for language editing
May/ Jun
All Graphs and maps completed
Final report sent for lay-out
Sep
Release of printed publication
Indicators published 15

16. Scope and structure of the report Indicator selection
Topics for discussion
Scope and structure of the report
Indicator selection
Relevant information beyond indicators 16

17. Thank you See for more information: