1. © Crown copyright Met Office NI IHEEM May 2014 Climate Change Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office Alex.hill@metoffice.gov.uk

2. © Crown copyright Met Office From the Global to the Local Global AR5 & IPCC Attribution Local Understanding Means & Extremes Examples

3. © Crown copyright Met Office From the Global to the Local www.emeraldinsight.com

4. Global WG2 AR5 Risk

5. © Crown copyright Met Office Global WG2 AR5

6. Representative Concentration Pathways If global emissions peak within next few years then decline Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions Emissions cuts make little difference for next few decades

7. Key risks Global WG2 AR5

8. AR5 Major Crops © Crown copyright Met Office

9. Health impacts Up to 2050’s Exacerbation VH Confidence © Crown copyright Met Office Towards 2100 - Increase in ill-health especially in developing regions high confidence.

10. © Crown copyright Met Office 2ºC rise Links & Consequences 2 deg map to go here Current City population 3-10 million 10-20 million Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Some risk of melting ice Ocean Acidification Forest fire Reduced crops Forest fire Some increased crops More heatwaves

11. © Crown copyright Met Office 4ºC rise Links & Consequences Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Current City population 3-10 million 10-20 million Melting ice Ocean Acidification Rainforest loss Reduced crops Forest fire Increased drought Stronger tropical storms Methane release More heatwaves

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Understanding the local

13. © Crown copyright Met Office (Defra project code GA0204) A climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland January 2012 Contractors: HR Wallingford AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica

14. © Crown copyright Met Office IMPACT Effect  Summer Temperatures  Winter Temperatures  Winter Rainfall  Summer Rainfall  Sea Level Impact bio-physical systems  Terrestrial environment  Coastal and marine environments Risk assessment  Natural environment  Agriculture and forestry  Business  Buildings and infrastructure  Health and wellbeing 

15. © Crown copyright Met Office UKCP09 Three different emission scenarios Seven different timeframes 25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Slide by Erika Palin Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate Temperature now Probability of occurrence Hot temperature extremes Cold temperature extremes (After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008) Temperature in future Fewer cold extremes More hot extremes More record hot extremes Cold threshold AverageHot threshold New average

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Warmest day

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Perspective - The Future © Crown copyright Met Office observations Met Office Projections 2040s 2060s Europe Temp anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C 2003 2 deg c Ave

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Heatwaves © Crown copyright Met Office 2000 extra deaths in the UK Peaks in death rate coincides with peaks in temperatures Average daily deaths Daily deaths 2003 Maximum temperature (London)

20. © Crown copyright Met Office Adapting now, mitigating for the future? Adaptation Mitigation IPCC 2 0 C CRC

21. © Crown copyright Met Office Some Output Winter Rain 2040s

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Some Output Winter Rain 2080s

23. © Crown copyright Met Office Sea Level Rise

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Adapt now, mitigate for the future Impact bio-physical systems  Terrestrial environment  Coastal and marine environments Risk assessment  Natural environment  Agriculture and forestry  Business  Buildings and infrastructure  Health and wellbeing

25. © Crown copyright Met Office