2. Oil Peak, Facts and Policies Sept. 25, 2012 Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund Institute http://www.uvm.edu/giee

3. Fuel Domesticated Animals Labor Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970

4. 0 25 50 75 100 180018251850187519001925195019752000 Composition of U.S. Energy Use wood animal feed coal oil gas electricity Percent of total energy use

6. WORLD ENERGY 2004 75.9% fossil fuel

7. Net Energy Wind ~20:1

8. US Oil Extraction

10. Hubbert Oil Cycle Marion King (MK) Hubbert

11. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 0 -5 -4-3 -2 +1 +2+3 +4 +5 Iron in Middle East Stonehenge Built Parthenon completed Pyramids constructed Mayan culture Inquisition Black Death Magellan's Circumnavigation Steam Engine 100 200 300 Trillion kwh per year

12. World Oil Extraction

14. Oil Reserves

15. Source: Boyle, et al, Oxford Press

16. Second Prophecy: 1974

17. OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS ASPO Scenario

18. World Oil Extraction

20. World Oil Flows

22. Oil Producers: 98 countries www.lastoilshock.com

23. Oil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminally www.lastoilshock.com

24. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087 Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007

30. Business As Usual-EIA

32. 1960-1980 Predictions

33. 1975-1983 Predictions

34. Real Price of Oil 1869-2007

36. (Money/Debt) (Oil) Third Prophecy: Cultural Crisis (Compound Interest)

37. US Energy Use (and agriculture)

38. (61% FF=8.8%FF) 8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil Fuels

40. How VT Heats 86% Fossil Fuels

41. How People Move-USEIA

42. Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) ElectricarLectra 1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs “Better batteries 10 years away”

43. Source: EPA

44. WHAT TO DO? Provide incentives Ex: Germany Policies, Market-based Instruments: 1.1999 Tax & Rebate on Fuel (tax cut): Diesel/gasoline $1.79-2.48/gallon Funds rebated to payroll taxes-89%, efficiency, and RE 2.2005 Cap/trade for CO2-powerplants and industrial heat 3.1991 Feed-in Tariffs: Wind=$.1149, PV=$.6385, hydro=$.1055, biogas=$.1551 No costs to government Results: PV Industry: 2715 MW installed, 52% of world total, 40,000 employed (US has 360 MW installed or 13% of Germany) Wind Industry: 22,247MW, 28% of world total, 82,000 employed (United States 16,818MW) Biomass sector 95,400 employed Total: 217,000 employees in RE ~107,000 FF & nuclear

45. WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active? WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH? Trees Farms Cows Land Wind Sun Big and Small Hydro Smart People Indigenous Energy Industry Entrepreneurs

46. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 45 Energy taxes in Germany increased by 55 percent, additional increase in 2005 through truck toll FINANCIAL EFFECTS OF ETR IN GERMANY (IN BILLION EURO) Energy taxes 2003/2005 Energy taxes 18,7 bn € = 55% in- crease Electricity (0 → 2,1 cents/kWh) 1998 6,5 5,0 1, 8 16,0 22,8 ~ 34 2005 Road toll for trucks + 3,0 Fuel oil (4,1 → 6,2 cents/l) Diesel (31,7 → 47,2 cents/l) Petrol (50,1 → 65,6 cents/l) Natural gas (0,2 → 0,6 cents/kWh) ETR ~ 53 3,0 Road Toll (0 → 9-14 cents/km) ~ 56 Total green taxes almost 90 Bn (incl. tobacco, land etc.) 1999 +4,3 2000 +2,5 2001 +3,0 2002 +2,5 2003 +4,3

47. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 46 Almost 90 Percent was recycled to citizens in order to reduce labour cost GERMAN ETR: RECYCLING OF THE RETURNS Decrease in pension costs = 16 Bn relief for employers, employees and pensioners Pension system Environment Projects Renewable Energies Less CO 2 in buildings Tax break bio-fuels Our Comment: Great idea, in principle Less than perfect execution Economy Govt. Social Security Budget use

48. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 47 First Results of Ecological Tax Reform POSITIVE EFFECTS ON NATURE, INNOVATION AND LABOUR  Fuel consumption (-16%)  CO 2 -emissions (2-2,5%)  Pension costs (-16 bn)  Costs for industry (-1 bn)  Empty truck travel  Imported fossil fuels (-13%)  Overall tax burden (-4 %)  Tax share of Nature  Car sharing (+70 %)  Public transport (+5 %)  Energy saving technologies  Energy efficiency  Gas-powered cars (x10)  Bio-fuelled cars (x2)  Job creation (≈ 250.000)  Renewable energies Less More

49. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 48 The development of CO 2 -Emissions is very unequal CHANGES IN CO2-EMISSIONS PER CAPITA IN TONS (BASEYEAR 1993) Reference: DIW 2005 Fuel Duty Escalator 1993-1999 German Ecotax 1999- 2003

50. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 49 Ecotaxes can reverse the trend in transport emissions INCREASE IN GHG-EMISSIONS IN TRANSPORT (IN PERCENT) Changes to baseyear 1994 Reference: UNFCC 2005 Ecological Tax Reform Oil price shock 2001

51. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 50 While the US increased their oil imports by 26 percent, Germany reduced it by 13 percent TOTAL CHANGE IN OILIMPORTS FROM 1998-2005 IN MILLION BARRELS PER DAY -0,3822,4852,867Germany 2,58912,3539,764USA Absolute Change Change in percent 20051998 Saving energy perhaps less costly than fighting wars for oil...

52. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 51 Future ecotax campaigns should not stress dangers, but innovation, benefits and future jobs

53. © Dr. Görres – www.foes.de July 2006Economic Instruments – Exhibit 52 More jobs in RENs than in our heavily subsidized problem energies Source: BEE 2005 Water Geothermal power Solar Bioenergy Windpower REN: 150.000 jobs JOBS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR IN GERMANY 2005 Problem energies: 107.000 jobs

54. WHAT TO DO? Heat All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization District heating and co-generation Biodiesel heating fuel Wood and wood chip/pellet heating Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window insulation, Solar hot water Wood stoves High Performance Schools Energy Program Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuel

55. WHAT TO DO? Electricity VT Yankee = 550MW CT River Dams-567MW. Dams = $160 Million/year revenue. Buy the dams. Use eminent domain if necessary Fast-track small hydro-up to 400MW Approve more wind farms More Wood chip plants Etc.

56. WHAT TO DO? Heat All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization District heating and co-generation Biodiesel heating fuel Wood and wood chip/pellet heating Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window insulation, Solar hot water Wood stoves High Performance Schools Energy Program Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuel

57. WHAT TO DO? Transportation Hybrids Plug-in hybrids Electric vehicles Alternative fuels, ethanol, methanol (flex-fuel), biodiesel Trains Public transit-Jitneys Bike/pedestrian paths Tax/rebate on fuels Cap/dividend on carbon-vehicles

58. WHAT TO DO? Agriculture Don’t turn food into fuel Biodiesel: waste oil, algae, non-food crops Methane digesters: “Cow-power”

59. Crisis or Opportunity We will shift from Fossil Fuels. Will we be Pro-active or reactive? It’s up to you.