1. Family policies in an ageing society. France Seminar on Policies Responding to Low Fertility Sharing Korean and European Experiences Julien Damon Associate Professor, Sciences-Po (Paris) www.julien-damon.com October 26 th 2009, KIHASA, Seoul

2. Population (thousands) Constant-fertility variant - 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

3. Total fertility (children per woman) Medium variant - 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

4. Population aged 65+ (%) Medium variant - 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,n

5. -Support to fertility - Protect the family (preserve the traditional model) - Protect the children (support for their education) - Struggle against inequality and poverty - Support to the work-family balance - Promote gender equality The many objectives of the French familiy policy

6. Public spending on family benefits in cash, services and tax measures, in per cent of GDP, 2005 Source : OECD

7. Social Security INSURANCE Social Assistance ASSISTANCE Extras PROVISION FOR THE FUTURE French social policies The Post-War Management Scheme  Optional and compulsory protection  Mutual associations, insurance companies, contingency fund organizations  1945 goal: progressive reduction of the need for contingency mechanisms  Needs-based risk coverage  Principally financed through taxation  Mainly vertical redistribution  1945 goal: assistance expected to become residual  Risk coverage for “social assistance” beneficiaries  Principally financed through contributions  Mainly horizontal redistribution  Divided into different programs  1945 goal: universality  The various social insurance programs provide four-fifths of the benefits

8. French social policies have met many of the goals they were designed to achieve... providing coverage for the whole population achieving one of the highest fertility rates in the Western world significantly improving the overall health of the population fulfilling a role as an effective, Keynesian-inspired, economic stabilizer reducing poverty, particularly among seniors Bird's-eye View (1)

9. ... they have, however, been hindered by substantial difficulties arising from economic and social change persistently high unemployment, resulting in lost revenue and increased social expenditures structural deficits that create a burden for future generations aging population poor, insufficient, or incomplete coverage of new risks (dependency in old age, exclusion, immigrant integration, etc.) changes to the family structure that challenge the “male breadwinner” concept Bird's-eye View (2)

10. The “Structure” of Social Risk Management Four “social risks”... Occupational injuries Old age Illness Family... that grew to eleven! Maternity Unemployment Work transitions Survivors Disability Housing Poverty Old age Health Family Employment Housing Poverty By broad risk area, 2007

11. But what does it mean? These are the Social Security “branches” established in 1945 Accounting terms used to describe social assistance benefits The French debate concerns the creation of a “fifth risk”...  A highly ambiguous situation Four “social risks”... Occupational injuries Old age Illness Family... that grew to eleven! Maternity Unemployment Work transitions Survivors Disability Housing Poverty

12. How will “Retirement” and “Family” Risks evolve? Dependency or early childhood? Number of day care spaces per 100 children under 3 years of age Financing requirements of old age insurance plans (billions of Euros)

13. Source: INED Changes to the number of births and the proportion of extramarital births in France Families are not the same as they used to be (1) Births Extra-marital

14. Source: OECD Families are not the same as they used to be (2) The “work/family balance” revolution Cross-country relation between female employment rates and total fertility rates

15. Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008 Work and life balance : insatisfation

16. Work and life balance : the solution ? Source : Family life and the needs of an ageing population, Eurobaromètre, 2008

17. OECD countries by family policy

18. Pre-primary education

19. Childcare …

20. Childcare in the EU. French are among the least satisfied… Source : Eurobaromètre, 2005

21. Parental leave Any relationship with fertily? Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

22. Source : Eurobaromètre, 2006 A big issue: how many children do women desire?

23. A very big issue: women in modern life Female Managers Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide work force of female managers that work there. Source : www.worldmapper.org

24. Another important relationship: share of births outside marriage and fertility rate, 1970, 2005 Sources: OECD, National Statistical Offices and Eurostat Demographic Statistics for EU countries.

25. The last (French?) big issue: migration After the brain drain, the care drain?

26. The more you spend, the more you have children? NO The easier it is to work and to divorce, the more you have children? PROBABLY A new european idea: social investment Thank you for your attention