1. Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp) NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) COP12 and COP/MOP2 Side Event, “Global Challenges Toward a Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Through Sustainable Development (SD)” November 8, 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya http://2050.nies.go.jp

2. Source: NASA North Pole Ice in Sep. 1978 1998 Himalayan Glaciers

3. Back-casting from future target world 2020 2050 2000 Long-term target year Release of AIM result Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend Forecasting Back-casting Normative target world Reference future world Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions Mitigation Technology development Required Policy intervention and Investment required intervention policy and measures Environmental pressure Checking year(2015) Checking year(2025) Required intervention 3. We need “Trend Breaks” to realize visions 2. We need “Visions” 1.Target may be tough 50% reductions In the world

4. Vision AVision B Vivid, Technology-drivenSlow, Natural-oriented Urban/PersonalDecentralized/Community Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Comfortable and ConvenientSocial and Cultural Values As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societies 2. We need “Visions” Akemi Imagawa

5. Efficient use New energy Infrastructure Eco-lifestyle Super high efficiency air- conditioner Stand-by energy reduction LED light PV on roof Fuel cell cogeneration Heat insulation house Hot water supply by heat pump or solar heating HEMS (Home Energy Management System) Eco-life Navigation COP=8 for cooling Environment Education 10-20% reduction 66% reduction of lighting demand 60% reduction of heat demand 33% reduction COP=5 for warming 10-20% reduction 3-4kW Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050 3. We need “Trend Breaks”

6. -The “Top Runner Program” has -stimulated competition and innovation in the market, -diffused existing technologies, and -enhanced industrial competitiveness -It created “win-win” situation and virtuous cycle. Top Runner Program: Efficiency Improvement (Source) JEMA (2002) Fig: Energy efficiency of refrigerator 3. We need “Trend Breaks”

7. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 1995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055 COP (Coefficient of performance) Best Average Worst Historical Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating AIST MOE METI 3. We need “Trend Breaks”

8. AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) for Japan LCS scenarios Check consistency!

9. Number of Dwelling by type Population by age Transportation demand by mode

10. Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissionsCategory Soci ety ・ reduce raw material production ・ decrease numbers of population/household Activity Indust ry ・ Production efficiency improvement EE ・ Increase rate of natural gas use CI Residential ・ Use of high insulation system ・ Control of home energy system SD ・ High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater, lighting system ・ Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof EE CI Transportation ・ Replacement of working/living place ・ Public transportation SD ・ Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles, Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles EE CI Energy supply ・ Nuclear energy ・ Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage ・ CO2-free hydrogen supply CI ・ Advanced fire plant + CCS ・ Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS CCS 23MtC 27MtC 16MtC 8MtC 21MtC 11MtC 9MtC 30MtC 41MtC 30MtC 11MtC amount * * CO2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000 amount Service Demand (SD) 40 Energy Efficiency (EE) 78 Carbon Intensity (CI) 79 CCS 30 Possible trend-breaking options to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan (Scenario A) Demand side Supply side CCS: Carbon Capture Storage

11. Factor decomposition of CO2 emission reduction in 2050 Japan using Kaya Identity -4% -30% -7% -28% -69% -11% -18% -30% -14% -73% -80%-60%-40%-20%0% D E/D C'/E C/C' Total vs 2000's 2050 A2050 B C ： CO2 emissions D ： Activity E ： Energy demand C’ ： CO2 emissions (excluding energy conversion sector) C ： CO2 emissions D ： Activity E ： Energy demand C’ ： CO2 emissions (excluding energy conversion sector) Service demand improvement Energy efficiency improvement in end-use sectors Fuel mix change in end-use sectors Fuel mix change in Energy conversion Cross           )/( )/( )/( )/( )/( )/( CC CC EC EC DE DE D D C C

12. We support country-wise LCS modeling through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world - We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1995 - IndiaChinaThailandKoreaMalaysiaIndonesiaBrazil Taiwan, China USA Japan Russia South Africa 16-20 Oct 2006 at NIES

13. Vision AVision B Vivid, Technology-drivenSlow, Natural-oriented Urban/PersonalDecentralized/Community Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Comfortable and ConvenientSocial and Cultural Values We qualify and quantify possible future LCS visions using AIM models Akemi Imagawa

14. cross Designed by Hajime Sakai (airbox-pin@nyc.odn.ne.jp)