1. Ecological Modeling Working Group 23 December 2013 Meeting

2. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

3. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

4. Matthias Obst Work APPLICATION OF ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING AND EARTH OBSERVATION FOR THE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING OF INVASIVE SPECIES IN THE BALTIC SEA - Kerstin Stelzer (Brockmann Consult GmbH) - Karin Heyer - Dr. Sarah Bourlat (SeAnalytics AB) - Dr. Matthias Obst (SeAnalytics AB)

5. The Problem International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments ◦ International Shipping is the most important introduction vector for accidental marine translocation by discharging ballast water in the ports of destination ◦ Convention will come into force ships will have to manage their ballast water before discharging it. Exceptions : ◦ Vessels operating in some regions, such as enclosed seas, or on short journeys, may have the opportunity to grant for an exemption from ballast water management. ◦ Will only been granted on basis of a certain Risk Assessment, to investigate if invasive species are living in the donor port and might have the possibility to be transferred by ballast water and could survive in the recipient port.

6. Ecological Niche Modeling Method

7. Biovel Workflow Process

8. Layers Used Photosynthetically Available Radiation (Einstein/m2/day) Sea Surface Temperature (°C) Mean Salinity (PSS) Nitrate ( μ mol/l) Phosphate ( μ mol/l) Silicate ( μ mol/l) Mean annual distance to land Mean sea ice concentration  Information taken from various sources including Aquamaps

9. Satellite Data

10. MERIS Data

11. Species Selection Criteria ◦ They have invaded in the last 100 years ◦ They are tolerant to a wide range of salinities ◦ They are highly invasive ◦ They are non-parasitic Occurrence data ◦ GBIF ◦ ICES ◦ national monitoring agencies Species Selected (5 phytoplankton, 1 macroalgae) ◦ Alexandrium minutum ◦ Pseudochattonella farcimen ◦ Alexandrium ostenfeldii ◦ Prorocentrum minimum ◦ Sargassum muticum ◦ Coscinodiscus wailesii

12. Alexandrium minutum

13. Is found in: ◦ warm temperate, coastal and estuarine waters over a number of geographic areas ◦ In Europe : Ireland, England, northern France, northwest Spain, the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea and Norway. Impacts on native phytoplankton community and habitat: ◦ produces high concentrations of toxins and is responsible for many global cases for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in humans. ◦ it is the most widespread toxic PSP species in the Mediterranean Sea.

14. Pseudochattonella farcimen

15. Alexandrium ostenfeldii

16. Prorocentrum minimum

17. Sargassum muticum

18. Coscinodiscus wailesii

19. Ecological Requirements

20. Occurrence Records

21. Explorative Modeling – Parameters

22. Potential Distribution Map

24. In-Depth Modelling - Parameters

25. Potential Distribution Map

27. Requirements Sufficient occurrence records Quality of Environmental Layers Information Species Biology ◦ conditions ◦ adaption

28. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

29. Occurrence Data

30. Biovel Portal

31. Algorithm Selection

32. Algorithm Parameter Values

33. Layers Selection

34. Mask Creation

35. Create Present Day Projection

36. Create 2050 Projection

37. View and Download Results

38. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

39. User Scenario User Uploads Occurrence Dataset Uses Biovel DRW to Obtain Dataset Biovel DRW to “Clean” the Data Biovel ENMW View or Store Results Visualization Mechanisms Other Workflow (ENSW)

40. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

41. Metadata Occurrence Metadata (Almost Done) Ecological Metadata (EML?) Workflows Metadata (CRM Digital?) GeoInfo Metadata

42. Outline 1. Mattias Obst Work 2. Biovel ENM Workflow 3. User Scenarios 4. Data/Metadata 5. Next Steps

43. Next Steps Complete Metadata Lists and Modeling Complete and Describe Users Scenario Study in Depth (and find more info about) Matias Model and Biovel Workflows Decide which Species to Use Obtain Mediterranean Occurrence Data for these Species Know how (and take a decision) Biovel Workflows will be embedded in the LW portal Pre/Post processing What other modeling is necessary?

44. Thanks You and Marry Christmas!!!