1. Rotmans and de Vries (1997) Perpsectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach TARGETS Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability RIVM, NL

2. Problems with current practice Models not treated as a valuable resource Models need a lot of effort to construct - assemble the science - write the code (most of which is support code) Model structure not accessible - difficulty of getting science from the code - no guarantee that paper matches model Model variables not linked to standard-naming schemes, ontologies etc Hard to compare alternative models Models tend to be locked in to a single paradigm (System Dynamics, agent-based, Bayesian network, general-equailibrium, optimisation...) It doesn't have to be like this....

3. The System Biology community SBML: a community standard for representing biological pathway models in XML. A rich collection (200+) of tools for processing SBML models A database of 400+ 'curated' and 400+ 'non-curated' models A community which discusses SBML developments Major funding from EU, NSF, BBSRC...

4. Meeting this challenge for integrated modelling We need a declarative modelling approach (like SBML) - so we can display models visually; - so we can have computer support for building models; - so we can automatically compare, transform, convert models; - so we can link model variables to community ontologies. We need to be able to handle multiple modelling paradigms - Not just separately, but within a single model. - Example: System Dynamics, spatial modelling and agent-based modelling - Reference platform: Simile [Disclosure]

5. LINTUL - a simple but representative crop model System Dynamics modelling

6. Simonovic's Anemi - N 2 O

7. Simonovic's Anemi - ocean temperature

8. Objects/disaggregation

9. Spatial modelling

10. “Agent-based”

11. FLORES - Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System Acknowledgements: DFID; CIFOR; Jerry Vanclay

12. Back to the future...