1. Analyzing Trends in Science & Technology Innovation Ben Shneiderman, Ping Wang, Yan Qu & Cody Dunne ben@cs.umd.edu, {pwang, yanqu, cdunne}@umd.edu University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742

2. The STICK Project NSF SciSIP Program - Science of Science & Innovation Policy Goal: Scientific approach to science policy The STICK Project - Science & Technology Innovation Concept Knowledge-base Goal: Monitoring, Understanding, and Advancing the (R)Evolution of Science & Technology Innovations http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/

3. The STICK Project Long-term objectives Database of IT, biotech & nanotech innovations Visual analytic tools for monitoring & sensemaking Theories of innovation trajectories Near-term objectives Ontology for innovations & people Search & cleaning tools Case studies Cloud computing Tree visualizations: treemaps, cone trees & hyperbolic trees

4. Early Work: Fashions in IT Innovations

5. Innovation Trajectories: Web Services Publications R&D Investment Sales Sources: LexisNexis for publications; Gartner for R&D investment; IDC for Application Sales

6. STICK: Ontology Design

7. STICK: Ontology Design: Time Time

8. Case Study: Cloud computing

9. Case Study: Tree Visualizations Problem: Traditional 2D node-link diagrams become too large Solutions: Treemaps: Nested Rectangles Cone Trees: 3D Interactive Animations Hyperbolic Trees: Focus + Context Measures: Papers, articles, patents, citations,… Press releases, blog posts, tweets,… Users, downloads, sales,…

10. Treemap: Nested Rectangles www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/ (Shneiderman, ACM Trans. on Graphics, 1992; Johnson & Shneiderman, IEEE 1991)

11. Smartmoney.com MarketMap: Steep fall Feb 27, 2007, with one exception smartmoney.com/marketmap

12. newsmap.jp Treemap: Newsmap (Marcos Weskamp)

13. www.hivegroup.com Treemap: Supply Chain

14. www.spotfire.com Treemap: Spotfire Bond Portfolio Analysis

15. Treemap: NY Times – Car&Truck Sales www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/

16. Cone tree: 3D Interactive Animations Interactive 3D animated user interfaces (Robertson, Card & Mackinlay, ACM CHI 1991 & CACM 1993)

17. Hyperbolic Trees: Focus & Context (Lamping & Rao, ACM UIST1994 & CHI 1995)

18. Case Study: Tree Visualization Impact TM=Treemaps CT=Cone Trees HT=Hyperbolic Trees Trade Press Articles Academic Papers Patents

19. Case Study: Tree Visualization Citations TM=Treemaps CT=Cone Trees HT=Hyperbolic Trees Academic Papers Patents

20. Take Away Messages Thanks to: National Science Foundation grant SBE-0915645 and Grad student Puneet Sharma terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/ Studying innovation trends will be accelerated by Appropriate ontologies Better search & data cleaning tools Causal theories Multiple measures & determinants of success  Guidance to innovators, policy analysts, venture capitalists & research managers

21. STICK Framework http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/