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Afif Khoury Managing Member, Scatter Ventures LLC CEO, SOCI Inc. CA Bar Patent Bar UCSD Grad 10+ yrs Venture Capital, Corporate Governance Law afif@scatterventures.com How to Value a Start-Up… for Venture Capital
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The Scorecard Method The Venture Capital Method The Dave Berkus Method The Risk Factor Summation Method The Golden Rule Multiple Methods
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The rules can be subjective Even more “standard” formulas may yield dramatically different results. Strength of the Team Size of the Opportunity Product/Technology Competitive Environment Marketing/Sales Channels/Partnerships Need for Additional Investment Regulatory Climate Trends By the time you are through answering these questions … Subjectiveness
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The Scorecard Method 1.Determine the Avg Pre Money valuations: Look at companies in the region and business sector of target co. Assume $2N 2.Compare Target to your perception of similar deals : Strength of Management Team0-30% Size of Opportunity0-25% Product/Technology0-15% Competitive Environment0-10% Marketing/Sales Channels/Partnerships0-10% Need for Additional Investment0-5% Other0-5%
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The Scorecard Method 3. Make the Valuation Calculation 4. Multiply the sum by the Avg: $2M*1.075 = $2.15 Comparison FactorRangeTarget CoFactor Strength of Management Team0-30%125%0.375 Size of Opportunity0-25%150%0.375 Product/Technology0-15%100%0.150 Competitive Environment0-10%75%0.075 Marketing/Sales Channels/Partnerships0-10%80%0.080 Need for Additional Investment0-5%100%0.050 Other (great early customer feedback)0-5%100%0.050 Total1.0750
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LEXICON Pre-Money: Value assigned before the investment Post-Money: – Pre-Money + Investment – Terminal Value / Anticipated ROI Terminal Value: Anticipated Selling Price Anticipated Selling Price: – Industry specific multiple of revenues (2x Expected Revenues) – Expected Revenues in yr of sale (eg, $20M), which allows you to estimate earnings in the yr of sale from industry specific stats (eg, 15%, $3M earnings), which allows you to use industry specific P/E ratios to determine Terminal Value (eg, 15x)… $45M Anticipated ROI: 27% IRR in 6 yrs (“Wiltbank Stud”)… – so need a 20x or more on 1 of 10 (assuming other 9 pay back capital) The Venture Capital Method
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What is the Pre-Money Valuation? Post Money = Terminal Value / Anticipated ROI $45M/20x… $2.125M Pre Money = Post Money - Investment If investment is $500K, Pre Money is $1.625M
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The Venture Capital Method What If Subsequent Investment Will Be Needed? Another layer of complexity and subjectiveness Pre Money x Anticipated Dilution New money dilutes 50%, then Pre Money is ~ $800K
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The Dave Berkus Method Dave Berkus is a founding member of the Tech Coast Angels in Southern California Missing some characteristics: competitive environment, IP, size of opportunity, etc. Doesn’t allow for pre-money higher than $2.5M CharacteristicAdd to Pre-Money Valuation Quality Management TeamZero to $0.5 million Sound IdeaZero to $0.5 million Working PrototypeZero to $0.5 million Quality Board of DirectorsZero to $0.5 million Product Rollout or SalesZero to $0.5 million
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The Risk Factor Summation Method Ohio TechAngels: The higher the # of risk factors, the higher the overall risk Management Stage of the business Legislation/Political risk Manufacturing risk Sales and marketing risk Funding/capital raising risk Each risk (above) is assessed, as follow: +2 very positive for growing the company and executing a wonderful exit +1 positive 0 neutral -1 negative for growing the company and executing a wonderful exit -2 very negative Add $250K for every +1, and subtract $250K for every -1 Competition risk Technology risk Litigation risk International risk Reputation risk Potential lucrative exit
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The Golden Rule He who has the gold, makes the rules There is a market standard There is an expectation on ownership Breaking the mold is hard… create competition!
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