1. From Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLa)
To Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)
J. Roberto Jovel / Ricardo Zapata

2. Some things are easier to measure than others
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
The value of lives lost or affected
The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services provided
The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive)
The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)
IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE
The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The potential losses in equipment and inventories
The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected infrastructure
The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapse
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE the value of lives lost or affected. Although there are actuary methods to determine the economic value of a life lost or affected (in terms of the lost contribution to production, income not gained, etc.) or, as used in the medical field, an estimate may be made in terms of disability adjusted life years (or DALY), the value of human life is considered not to be quantifiable. Economic valuations in terms of production or income lost would create a paradoxical result in terms of people with lower income or poor having a less valuable life while being the most exposed to disasters given the fact they live under greater risk and their life-support infrastructures are more vulnerable. Also hard to establish, especially where information is scarce or spotty, is the opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services provided. This is related to the fact that usually there is no established value and assessment of the quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) with which to compare the post disaster situation.
IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE the amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. the potential losses in equipment and inventories. It is also worth determining the cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected infrastructure, as well as the alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapse.
8May07 RJ

3. 8May07 RJ

4. Defining Post-Disaster Needs
Post-disaster urgent activities:
Economic recovery
Reconstruction of assets
Economic recovery program required to restore
Personal and family income
Essential services or lifelines
Production activities in affected sectors
Reconstruction program required to repair or replace physical assets
8May07 RJ

5. Defining Post-Disaster Needs ..
The scope and financial needs of the economic recovery and reconstruction programs, must be defined on a solid quantitative basis
Financial needs must be assigned on the basis of the following criteria
Spatial
Sectorial
Affected population groups
The Damage and
Loss Assessment
provides the
quantitative inputs
required for planning
and monitoring
these Post-Disaster
Programs
8May07 RJ

6. Disaster Effects, Rp Billion
2006 Yogyakarta Quake DaLa
Disaster Effects, Rp Billion
Damage
Losses
Total
Housing
13,915
1,382
15,296
Transport and Communications 90
Energy
225
150
375
Water and Sanitation 82 4 86
Education
1,683 56
1,739
Health
1,569 21
1,590
Culture and Religion
654
Agriculture 66
640
705
Trade
184
120
303
Industry
4,063
3,899
7,962
Tourism 36 18 54
8May07 RJ

7. Use of Sector Analysis Economic Recovery Programme Reconstruction
8May07 RJ

8. From Losses to Economic Recovery Plan

9. Use of DALA for Recovery Planning
Value of
Production Losses
Impact on:
Macro-economic performance
Individual and family income
Enterprise performance
Economic Recovery Program
Temporary employment programs
Special sector reactivation programs
Short-term, soft loans for micro and SMEs
8May07 RJ

10. Economic Recovery Program Components
Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-economic and individual impact
Income generation schemes for most affected population groups, with special reference to those that are not credit worthy
Provision of soft term financing to re-start production activities in micro, small and medium sized enterprises
Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum delays of reconstruction start and execution
8May07 RJ

11. Scope and Priorities in Economic Recovery
Scope and priorities of each subprogram defined on basis of criteria arising from loss assessment:
Most affected sectors
Most affected geographical areas
Most affected population groups
8May07 RJ

12. Losses as Indicator of Economic Recovery Needs
A comparison of amount of production losses versus GDP for each affected sector provides measure of impact on sector performance
When such impact is high, special sectorial production recovery programs must be designed
Financial needs for each sector and subsector can be estimated from value of production losses
8May07 RJ

13. Spatial Priorities for Economic Recovery
Amount of Losses per District
8May07 RJ

14. Spatial Priorities For Economic Recovery
GDP Growth Decline by District
8May07 RJ

15. Sector Priorities for Economic Recovery
Concentration
on SMEs
8May07 RJ

16. From Damage to Reconstruction Needs

17. Use of DALA for Reconstruction Planning
Value of
Damage
Reconstruction Programme
Financing needs
Priorities for reconstruction
Sectorial
Geographical
Reconstruction Needs
Damage +
Technological improvement +
Relocation costs +
Cost of mitigation +
Inflation
Financing Formula
Government funds
Private sector funds
Insurance reimbursement
International grants
International loans
- diversion existing loans
- fresh loans
8May07 RJ

18. Reconstruction Needs
Value of damage must be supplemented to define financial needs of reconstruction program, by introducing criteria from reconstruction strategy and inflation rates:
Reconstruction strategy (“building back better”)
Quality improvement
Technological innovation
Introduction of mitigation measures
Relocation to safe areas
Overall multi-year inflation due to combination of
Speculation
Scarcity
8May07 RJ

19. Reconstruction Needs
Financial needs for reconstruction can be defined, focused and prioritized on the basis of the damage assessment, duly adjusted as indicated in previous slide
Criteria for assignation of financial resources
Per capita damage figures
Sector distribution of damage
Spatial distribution of damage
8May07 RJ

20. Spatial Priorities for Reconstruction
Total Damage per District
8May07 RJ

21. Spatial Priorities for Reconstruction..
Damage per Capita per District
8May07 RJ

22. Sector Priorities for Reconstruction
8May07 RJ

23. From quantitative to qualitative
Damage and losses to natural capital and impact on cultural assets: some recent examples

24. PROCESSES (CAUSES, ORIGIN) VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSE) STRESS FACTORS
Capacity to react (resilience)
Sensibility (capacity to adapt)
Change in exposure (need to mitigate)
8May07 RJ

25. PROCESSES (CAUSES, ORIGIN) VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSE) STRESS FACTORS
Capacity to react (resilience)
Sensibility (capacity to adapt)
Change in exposure (need to mitigate)
RESILIENCE
ADAPTATION
MITIGATION
PREVENTION VS. RECONSTRUCTION
OPPORTUNITY COSTS IN THE FACE OF OTHER INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
8May07 RJ

26. Natural asset losses and its economic effects
8May07 RJ

27. Environmental damage and losses and disasters
Lack of appropriate valuation of natural capital (environmental audits and environmental degradation leading to risk increase)
Inappropriate valuation of environmental services: forest services, water retention, CO2 sinking, risk reduction and natural protection, landscape value, tourism-related services
Economic valuation of public goods: free riders, externalities and investment requirements
8May07 RJ

28. 8May07 RJ

29. 8May07 RJ

30. 8May07 RJ

31. 8May07 RJ

32. 8May07 RJ

33. Use of cost based valuation methods
i) Replacement cost method: cost of replacing the good or service used as a proxy for the good’s/service’s value. But since most cultural goods are unique and can not be replaced preserving the total value (use and non-use) of the original, only in few cases it is possible to replace a damaged or lost cultural asset to obtain a replica that is as close as possible to the original and its values
ii) Restoration cost method assesses the value of a good or service by estimating the costs of restoring the good or service to its original condition (applicable to partially destroyed assets).
iii) Substitute cost method establishes the market price of an asset that could be a substitute to the damaged one.
iv) Preventive expenditure method (mitigation or defensive expenditure) focuses on the costs of preventing the damages or losses from occurring (For example, costs of maintainence such as conservation measures as providing even temperature and humidity within the premises of a museum or cathedral to protect its contents)
8May07 RJ

34. Economic impact of cultural heritage
Economic and non-economic impact (defined in the Cultural Heritage and Development, World Bank, 2005):
a) Positive economic impact on
poverty reduction;
national employment levels;
level of the total output and revenue form cultural and service industries;
foreign exchange earnings;
b) Beneficial non-economic impact on:
educational level and identity cultivation;
social cohesion, inclusion and development of social capital;
continuous expansion of the nations’ cultural patrimony;
safeguarding and conveying the heritage to future generations in a sustainable manner.
8May07 RJ

35. 8May07 RJ

36. 8May07 RJ

37. 8May07 RJ

38. Environmental damage caused by soil erosion: Stan impact in Guatemala departments
8May07 RJ

39. Cultural heritage and socioeconomic losses caused by disasters
8May07 RJ

40. Alternative valuation methods available
Use and non use value
Economic income generated by environmental and cultural goods
Who is to pay: willingness to pay and price fixation
Value associated to other goods and service with market value
Tourism
Culture and education: historical value
Preservation of cultural and religious identity of communities / societies
8May07 RJ

41. Cultural heritage assessment: an example from indigenous population losses in Guatemala
Departamento
Viviendas
destruidas
huipiles
destruidos
costo total Q
Cortes de tela
telares
costo total Q
Total Q
Total
2,603
15,618
26,550,600
15,618,000
5,206
780,900
42,949,500
Chimaltenango 8 48
81,600
48,000 16
2,400
132,000
Sololá
1,986
11,916
20,257,200
11,916,000
3,972
595,800
32,769,000
Quezaltenango 29
174
295,800
174,000 58
8,700
478,500
Huehuetenango
580
3,480
5,916,000
3,480,000
1,160
9,570,000
8May07 RJ

42. Thank You.