1. Six Countries Programme Workshop 23 - 24 May 2006 Shaping the future through learning from the past – Evaluation and Foresight Dr. Mari Hjelt Gaia Consulting Ltd (www.gaia.fi)

2. 2 Foresight and Evaluation – A broad set of actions Foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present day decisions and mobilising joint actions. (EC High Level Expert Group on Foresight: Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe, 2002) Given that it is probably impossible to arrive at a single definition of evaluation which will have universal appeal, we have chosen instead to identify some crucial elements which should normally characterise evaluations. Evaluations should be analytical, systematic, reliable, issue-oriented, and user-driven. (Evaluation of EU Expenditure Programmes - A guide)

3. 3 Both Foresight and Evaluation are policy learning processes that … enhance knowledge and decision-making within organisations and communities. answer questions and/or address issues through the collection and analysis of information. are best implemented as a systematic process that is both planned and purposeful and with a clear intention of using the findings. provide us with means of understanding both what we do and the effects of our actions in the context of the environment and the society in which we live.

4. 4 FUTURE Evaluation and foresight – the difference is in the time perspective Societal environment and framework conditions Policy makers environment PAST Foresight Evaluation Development paths in the past -e.g. macroeconomy, employment.... Anticipated future development - megatrends and weak signals Ex-post evaluation of policy - efficiency and quality - effectiveness - impact assessment Ex-ante evaluation of policy - policy analysis - impact assessment - technology assessment Strategic decision making Source: Valovirta ja Hjelt (2005) Evaluation needs to be connected to the context Foresight needs to be connected to the policy environment

5. 5 Instrument level objective: adaptive planning Levels of evaluation and foresight in innovation policy Organisation level objective: design instruments Who? Foresight - why?Evaluation - why? oStrategic evaluation – optimal policy mix oEffectiveness of instruments oSelecting priorities oVision building oNeed assessment Policy level objective: allocate R&D resources oRationale for policy creation and national innovation system

6. 6 Challenges and questions for discussion Systematic foresight and evaluation management = knowledge accumulation Who has the management responsibility? How to truly use the knowledge across policy sectors? How to manage a process instead of a project? Working together = thinking together Who creates commitment? How is this maintained? How are the real needs identified and addressed? Across policy sectors? Foresight centralized planning How are truly visionary processes created?