1. “Challenges and Opportunities” Presented by: Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District

2. Purpose of Presentation To establish a framework that sets in motion a more strategic approach to planning district-wide To identify Key Challenges To identify Key Opportunities

3. Nothing “Nothing influences a state’s prosperity more than the education of its people.” SREB Goals for Education: Challenge to Lead, 2002 Dallas County represents * 15% of Texas labor force * 11% of Texas population

4. Primary Primary Enrollment Drivers Population Demographics Economic Conditions Unemployment Rate (used as indicator)

5. U.S. Regional Growth by 2025 South and West will comprise majority of growth Northeast17.1% Midwest20.7% West26% South36.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. Population More specifically, Source: Texas State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau

7. Population (cont.) (In millions) ? ? Dallas County 614,799 + 3,200,000 Source: Texas State Data Center

8. Demographics Anglo 52% Hispanic 32% Afr-Am 12% Others Asian Anglo 69% Afr-Am 12% Hispanic 13% Others Asian Texas US Texas 2000 Census Source: Texas State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau

9. Demographics (cont.) Dallas County by Ethnicity 1980199020002010 2020 Anglo Afri-American Hispanic All Others Total 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 (in millions) Source: Texas State Data Center

10. Demographics (cont.) High School Graduate (or higher) Dallas = 75% Dallas = 75% Texas = 75.7%, ranked 45 th in U.S Bachelor’s Degree ( or higher) Dallas = 27% Dallas = 27% Texas = 23.3%, ranked 27 th in U.S. Educational Attainment Source: Texas State Data Center, U.S. Census Bureau

11. Demographics (cont.) Dallas County Public School Students (K-12) by Ethnicity, 2002-03 #Students 49,755 199,479 64,102 115,070 Total Students = 428,406 Level Source: Texas Education Agency

12. DCCCD Growth by College 1992-2002 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 199293949596979899012002 CVC BHCEFC ECC MVC * NLC RLC + Fall Credit Students Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

13. DCCCD DCCCD Credit Students Gender Female Female = 58% Male = 42% Majority female since the 1980’s Age Average = 28 yrs, Median = 24 yrs Somewhat constant since the 1990’s Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

14. DCCCD (cont.) Ethnicity Increasing Diversity Anglo Others Asian Hispanic Afri-Am 22% 44% 9% 20.5% 4% Anglo Afri-Am All Others <2% Asian Hispanic 17% 65% 11% 6% Fall 2002 Fall 1992 Fall 2002 55,000 students 60,000 students Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

15. Enrollment Forecast Texas % Change in Projected Texas Community College Enrollments Source: Texas State Data Center

16. .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.50 3.0 3.5 DCCCD Enrollment Forecasts 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 DCCCD Fall Credit Students 201020201970199019802000 Population (in millions) Unknowns Unknowns (and likely to encourage additional growth) Minority participation rates Increased university tuition Closing the Gap (GAP) Target = 89,000 Age Cohort Participation (ACP) Estimate = 74,000 Fall 2015

17. Forecasts (cont.) The Economy The Economy but, History has taught us... Unknowns Unknowns Caps (limits) on university freshmen class admissions Aging Boomers and life-long learning Increased need for more post- secondary and technical education training

18. DCCCD Lessons Learned Strong Economy (low unemp rate) credit course demand tends to decrease Weak Economy (high unemp rate) NCREASE credit course demand tends to INCREASE from the 1990’s to Present

19. Job Creation & Skills Needed 2000-2020 80% of the jobs created will require more post-secondary education and technical training Top 10 fastest growing jobs are in two areas Information (and related) Health Care (and related)

20. Lessons (cont.) All All impacted by weak economy, but most Students most vulnerable part-time recently unemployed and under employed adults under-prepared under-served

21. How the Economy Impacts Funding State and local revenue sources fluctuate with the economy In the past, a strong economy has generally supported growth Competition for resources creates uncertainty!

22. Economic Comparisons Strong Economy lower Dallas unemp lower than state Dallas = 3.2% 1998 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 3.2% Texas = 4.8% Historically, during a... Weak Economy higher Dallas unemp higher than state Dallas = 7.1% 2002 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 7.1% Texas = 6.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23. How do these lessons about funding impact the present and future of the Dallas County Community College District?

24. The Bottom Line As DCCCD credit demand continues to grow, state funding has declined and future stable funding is uncertain!

25. State Funding Trends FY1966 - FY2003 Texas Appropriations for Higher Education per $1,000 of Personal Income FY 1966 FY 2003 14 12 10 8 6 Source: Postsecondary Education, OPPORTUNITY, Dec 2002

26. State Appropriation Contribution Ratio 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1982 1990 1995 2000 Pct of Total Educational & General Expenditures ( High) 1984 = 73.4% est. 2003 = 35.9% 2004 = 36.5% 2002 = 40.3% DCCCD,1982 - 2004 Source: DCCCD 2002-03 Approved Budget

27. DCCCD Challenges Economic fluctuations Competition for state and local $ Increased need for an educated and trained workforce Need to “increase capacity” to meet demand Changing demographics, technology and workplace

28. DCCCD Opportunities Increasing Population Diversity of Population Need to “expand capacity” to meet student, community and business demand for a skilled workforce Enrollment in higher ed (majority of Texas freshmen/sophomores are in community colleges) Anywhere & Anytime Learning

29. Preparing and Planning The challenge of funding The challenge of change The challenge of maintaining quality programs and services Toward our Future...

30. Preparing and Planning The opportunity to continue to shape how DCCCD serves its communities The opportunity to take greater control of our future The opportunity to be a greater force in shaping Dallas County, the state of Texas and our nation Toward our Future...

31. The Future is Ours to Shape... We should always be cognizant that quality “People will always pay for quality”! (a quote from my dad who owned a dry cleaning establishment)