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1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

2 The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 2

3 Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees Components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or –International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 3 Generally, migration is the largest component of population change across non-metro Ontario

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7 Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees This implies labour market growth only from: Net in-migration from elsewhere in Canada; or International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net7

8 The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or –International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net8

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24 The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net24

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40 The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net40

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56 The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees First, trends in total population Then, components of population change: –Natural Balance (births minus deaths) –Voting with your feet –Prince Edward Census Division: Largest % decline in total population in 2013 Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013 Here we look at net migration of youth for the three census divisions with the largest % decline in population in 2013: Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1% RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net56

57 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net57 t=1 Population 15 to 19 in 1996 Population 15 to 19 in 1997 Population 15 to 19 in 1998

58 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net58 t=5 Population 20 to 24 in 2001 Population 20 to 24 in 2004 GAP = net decline from 2001 to 2006

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71 The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 71

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73 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net73 Economic Regions 3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region: includes Census Divisions: 01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties, 02 Prescott and Russell United Counties, 06 Ottawa Division 07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties,and 09 Lanark County. 3515 Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region: Includes Census Divisions: 10 Frontenac Management board, 11 Lennox and Addington County, 12 Hastings County, 13 Prince Edward Division, and 47 Renfrew County.

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75 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net75 September, 2005

76 The demographic trends of rural Ontario Conclusions Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 Regarding employment trends Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 In Eastern Ontario, employment in: the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 76

77 77 Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan Questions / Discussion

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