1. March 2013 Gaëtan Siew CEO GLOBAL CITIES Influence & Change to/from Asian Community “What is a city, but the people?” Coriolanus – Shakespeare - 1608

2. Key Points 1.Importance of Cities 2.Drivers 3.Development Pathways 4.Urban World in 2025 5.Stress on Cities 6.Lessons

3. Challenging World – Importance of Cities World – 600 Cities 600 Cities : Population > 0.75m Average City : 2.50 m 2012: 21 Mega-cities > 10.0 m 2025 : 29 Mega-cities > 10.0 m Top Urban growth: (Cn, In, US, Ni, Bd, Br) World 2050 = 9 bn 75% Urban – Now 50%++ Cities 66% world energy usage Cities 80% world emissions Belo Horizonte = 2.50 m

4. Challenges Rapid Urban Growth Pressure on resources ( Energy/Water) Capacity to absorb Pollution/Waste Challenging World – Importance of Cities Mumbai = 20.50 m

5. Challenging World – Importance of Cities Opportunities New business models Ability to impact on maximum population Targeted Smart level of investment Scale of intervention More effective to address resource management Water & Energy Air & Waste Management City level instead regional/national levels Luanda= 5.2 m

6. Challenging World – Importance of Cities Opportunities Cities impose own policies & regulations Socio-economic – Environmental Responsive to infrastructure development Mitigating effects of pollution Power and water shortages Climate change control Copenhagen = 2,6 m 2011 only electric /H² cars 2025 First carbon neutral capital

7. Drivers of City Development People Energy CREATIVE CITIES Diversity – Quality of Life HNWI : Expats Assets > 1 m $ 2011 = 11 m >>> 43 tn $

8. Drivers of City Development People Energy ENERGY USAGE FACTORS Climate Climate Economic activity Economic activity Geography Geography Income disparities Income disparities Population Population Urban Design Urban Design Amsterdam = 2.3m Smart City initiative Energy efficient in EU Biomass /biogas from waste/sewage into heat and electricity. into heat and electricity. Los Angeles = 17.80m City Sprawling Huge Consumers Large Cities Large Cities Prosperous Cities Prosperous Cities Sprawling Cities Sprawling Cities Amsterdam = 2.3 m

9. Drivers of City Development Six City Archetypes UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES Lagos, Manila, Lima UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRES Marrakech, Belgrade, Panama Marrakech = 1.06 m URBAN POWERHOUSES Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangalore

10. Drivers of City Development Six City Archetypes PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES Amsterdam,Copenhagen SPRAWLING METROPOLIS Paris, Houston Buenos Aires = 14.64m DEVELOPING MEGA-HUBS Buenos Aires, Hangzhou

11. Development Pathways Six Pathways EMERGING NATIONS POPULATION & CONSUMPTION GROWTH by 2025 Industrialisation & Modernisation Controlled Urbanisation Late Stage Growth Slum Proliferation Urban Decline Transition to Megacity Manila = 20.65m

12. Development Pathways Six Pathways Houston = 6.22m

13. Urban World 2025 2010 - 2025 PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES From 127 to 150 nos Especially Asian cities SPRAWLING METROPOLIS Up to 50 nos – Cities richer Chongqing= 32.0 m Mexico City = 21.2m

14. Urban World 2025 2010 - 2025 URBAN POWERHOUSES x 2 ++ 14 nos in China, India UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES 30 nos – Decreasing as Asia gets richer UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRES Fast developing & Unpredictable Dhaka= 15.41 m Bangkok = 8.28 m Bangalore = 8.43 m

15. Urban World 2025 2010 - 2025 660 Cities = 65% GDP >> 30 tn $ FLOOR SPACE Cities >> +85% more = Austria 84 000 km² E Cities >> 44 000 km² / 80 tn $ 440 E Cities = 47% GDP >> 23 tn $ 440 E Cities = Annual increase + 10 tn $ 84 000 sq.km Can they all be fitted in that? Can they all be fitted in that?

16. Stresses on Cities UNIVERSAL Energy Price Adequate Infrastructure Investment Public Amenity ENERGY PRICE Higher demand Higher demand Fiscal restructuring Fiscal restructuring Emission pricing Emission pricing Renewable portfolio standards Renewable portfolio standards Fuel price increase Fuel price increase *E –Cities ( Gov subsidy – Challenge in future) FACTORS Climate Geography Economic Status Top Green Cities Reyjavik99.9% green electricity San FranciscoEnergy, green bldgs, transport, air/water quality Malmö3rd largest wind energy park VancouverClean tech innovation, 90% renewable power Portland25% public transport, bicycles Curitiba70% land recycled – 1.5m trees Copenhagen 50% bicycles - world leader wind energy Stockholm40% city = green spaces HamburgStrong port and industrial policies BogotaAir quality, water supplies, 1200 urban spaces Curitiba 1.3m

17. Stresses on Cities UNIVERSAL Energy Price Adequate Infrastructure Investment Public Amenity ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT End of life cycles : Cities of 60s & 70s End of life cycles : Cities of 60s & 70s Replacement costs Replacement costs *E-Cities : Finding ways to pay >> Challenge

18. Stresses on Cities UNIVERSAL Energy Price Adequate Infrastructure Investment Public Amenity PUBLIC AMENITY Public expectation >> Livability Public expectation >> Livability Better environmental standards Better environmental standards Advanced solutions (Ex Low CO 2 >> Coal) Advanced solutions (Ex Low CO 2 >> Coal) *Rich Cities: Opposition to infrastructure projects (Ex Wind farms, roads, airports etc) Noise – Visually- Pollution New York Hi Line

19. Stresses on Cities UNIVERSAL Energy Price Adequate Infrastructure Investment Public Amenity PUBLIC AMENITY Art Art A sense of belonging A sense of belonging A sense of pride A sense of pride When the city ceases to be a symbol of art and order, “When the city ceases to be a symbol of art and order, it acts in a negative fashion.” Lewis Mumford

20. Lessons? Cities = Epicentre of Human Living Cities = Epicentre of Human Living Policymakers plans = Keys to future success/failure

21. Shi Shei Obrigado Gratias Merci Spasiba Thank you Shoukran Gaëtan Siew CEO www.gsiew-gcli.orgwww.gsiew-gcli.org “ What is a city but the people.” Coriolanus 1608 “ What is a city but the people.” Coriolanus 1608 Shakespeare (UK) Shakespeare (UK)