1. Demographic Transition Model
The DTM describes a sequence of changes in the relationship between birth rates and death rates.
The model was produced using changes in the natural increase in several industrialised countries in western Europe and North America.
It suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into four stages

3. Poor medical facilities Disease Poor nutrition High Infant mortality
Area
Birth Rate
Reason
Death Rate
LEDCs
High
No contraception Couples have many babies to compensate for the high death rate caused by poor health care Large families need to work on the land to contribute to family income Children look after old Religious reasons
Poor medical facilities Disease Poor nutrition High Infant mortality
NICs
High/ Decreasing
People are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change Changing status of women
Decreasing
As an economy develops money becomes available for better health care Housing improves Better childcare
MEDCs
Low
Children are expensive People know their children are going to survive so they can keep their families small Widely available contraceptives Changing status of women
Better health care Better standard of living

4. Reasons for population change
Stage 1
High death rate - poor medical knowledge, diet, water supply and sanitation
High birth rate - children used on farms, no reliable contraception
Stage 2
Decreasing death rate - medical knowledge and diet improves
High birth rate - still children used on farms, no reliable contraception
Stage 3
Decreasing death rate - more medical advances, clean water, greatly decreased infant mortality
Decreasing birth rate - children needed less on farms, people have smaller families when infant mortality decreases
Stage 4
Low death rate - advanced medical services, good living conditions, increased health education
Low birth rate - children cost money, contraception widely available, women gain higher status
and control

6. Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high.
Population growth is slow and fluctuating.
Reasons
Birth Rate is high as a result of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
Need for workers in agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as rats
Lack of education
Typical of Britain in the 18th century
and some tribes today.

7. Stage 2 - Early Expanding
Birth Rate remains high.
Death Rate is falling.
Population begins to rise steadily.
Reasons
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox vaccine)
Improved hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage
Improved transport for food
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century;
Bangladesh; Nigeria today

8. Stage 3 - Late Expanding Birth Rate starts to fall.
Death Rate continues to fall.
Population rising.
Reasons:
Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women
Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil today

9. Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
Birth Rate and Death Rate both low.
Population steady.
Typical of USA; Sweden; Britain today

12. Is the model universally applicable?
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:
1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This
has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the
model should have a fifth stage added to it.
2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now
seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become
industrialised.
3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary
conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after
advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many
developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In
many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model
suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas
the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-
introduced ‘onechild’ policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as
Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate
than did the early industrialised countries.
4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada,
Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

13. Life expectancy
The number of years that a child born in a particular country in a certain year can expect to live.

14. Fertility rate
The average number of births per woman.

15. Infant mortality
The proportion of children who die before they reach the age of one year (sometimes before the age of five).

16. Population structure
This refers to the age and sex distribution of the population.

17. Population Dependency Ratio

18. Countries with rapid population growth
When a country's population grows quickly it has the following effects
The large number of young people have to have services e.g. schools provided for them
There are fewer older people, so less money needs to be spent on them
There is a relatively small proportion of adults of working age; these people provide the wealth for
the services
There is pressure on the countryside with the extra population to feed; this can result in overgrazing,
over cropping and soil erosion
People move to the cities to find work; developing countries with rapidly growing populations have
the fastest growing cities in the world
Shanty towns grow up on the edge of cities; these are self-constructed buildings of poor quality
which can lack vital services such as water, electricity and sanitation
Some people apply to migrate to developed countries in order to improve their standard of living

19. Populations growing too quickly The steps that have been taken to reduce the problems caused by a rapidly growing population include Education about family planning, with the increased availability of a range of contraceptive methods Extra taxes for parents who have large families Extra benefits for the parents that have only one or two children Raising the age of marriage Increasing the industry and wealth in a country - this allows it to "afford" the increased population When a country develops - that is has a higher quality of life, higher standard of living and increased wealth - the birth rate goes down. This is the greatest influence in reducing problems caused by rapid population growth.

20. Countries with Slow Population Growth
When a country's population grows slowly it has the following effects
It has an ageing population, so large amounts of money is spent in providing services,
e.g. healthcare, for older people
As there is fewer young people less money needs to be spent on this age group
There could be a shortage of workers in the future, with so few young people
Migrants move into the country, often to work in the low paid, low status jobs that would
otherwise be difficult to find workers for

21. Populations growing too slowly
Governments have been concerned when the population of their country is only growing slowly. Indeed some countries, e.g. Hungary and Germany have recently had population decline.
The governments have responded by
Giving mothers longer paid maternity leave; giving
paternity leave to fathers
Generous child benefit payments
Raising the age of retirement - this increases the
workforce and reduces the amount that has to be
spent on pensions

22. Population pyramids Pyramid 1: Here the base is very wide indicating a very high birth rate. The width drops off very quickly. This means people must be dying. Very few reach old age. Few countries are still in this stage today but some rainforest populations would display this pattern. Implications: Clear need for investment into water supplies, health care, food supplies and housing to reduce death rates.
Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000
In this graph, notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of people, with the numbers thereafter declining steadily as the ages increase. The graph matches stage 1 in the model.

23. Pyramid 2: Still a large base so high birth rate but also a wider and taller pyramid as more people are living to older ages. This is stage two of the demographic transition model and includes many countries in Africa such as Kenya. Implication: Probable need to invest in education about family planning to reduce birth rate. Possibly indicates that women are undervalued in society so this could be tackled.
matches stage 2.
Projected population pyramid for Mozambique 2025
In the second graph, the largest group in Mozambique in 2025 is still the 0-4 age group, but there are nearly as many people in the 5-29 age groups. Now the population pyramid matches stage 2.

24. Pyramid 3: Note the more ‘domed’ shape
Pyramid 3: Note the more ‘domed’ shape. It means many people are living to older ages as quality of life improves. There are also proportionately fewer births. This is stage three of the demographic transition model. Chile would be a good example. Implication: As the population becomes increasingly older there may be a need to invest in facilities and services for them. Still a need for continued investment in family planning.

25. Pyramid 4: Very small base due to the very low birth rates and death rates displayed in the wide top. This would be representative of Australia that has recently come through stage three of the demographic transition model. Implication: Should the situation continue there are serious implications about providing for the elderly population (increasing cost of health care, state pensions) especially as the working population becomes proportionally smaller. This is a major concern in much of the developed world.
Population pyramid for the UK 2000
Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the and age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model.

26. Projected population pyramid for the UK 2025
Compare this to the 2025 pyramid, which would be stage 5 in the model. Here the bulge extends much further, covering the age groups 30-64, with the numbers beginning to reduce significantly only after 64.

28. Concave profile Convex profile

29. Population pyramids can also be influenced by:
Migration: Likelihood of extra young males as these are likely to migrate.
Famines: Clear drops in population especially among the very young as these are most likely to suffer.
War: Clear drop off in male populations of fighting age.
Make sure you can read data from a pyramid – try the one in the questions section.

30. Population pyramids can also show the percentage of the population, which is described as being "dependant". These are the groups of people who rely on the economically active members of society. Dependants are classified as those under working age ( years old) and those who have retired (over 65). They rely on the working age group of people between 16 and 64.
Population pyramids can also show significant events. In Germany there are far more males between 20 and 35, than there are females of a similar age. This shows up quite clearly on a pyramid, and is due to the huge numbers of male immigrant workers that came into the country through the 1990's. They came to Germany to find work, and left their families at home in places such as Yugoslavia and Turkey.
Another type of event that can be traced easily on population pyramids, is the effect of war. Often this leads to large in-balances in the population, with far more women than men of fighting age remaining as the men have been killed in battle.
Population pyramids can be used to help planning for the future also, as they can used to project the percentages of certain age-groups in the population over the next 50 years. In this way plans can be introduced to cope with the forecast changes, such as the ageing population in the UK.