1. Harvest Control Rules in different fishery contexts Workshop on Harvest Control Rules for Sustainable Fisheries Management Bergen 13-15 September 2004 Kjartan Hoydal

2. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20042 Personal profile  In former lives I have worked as scientist in Denmark and Faroe Islands, as a fisheries manager and negotiator and as officer in international organisations like ICES, Nordic Council of Ministers and NEAFC. I have recently evaluated the strategy for Nordic Fisheries Cooperation.  At present Secretary, NEAFC in London  However, this presentation is in a personal capacity and does not reflect NEAFC positions

3. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20043 Main suggestions of the presentation  Harvest control rules make sense, but they are generally, to a too large extent, weighed towards ecological criteria in the North-East Atlantic  The focus on fish stocks in the scientific advice in recent years makes it difficult or impossible to establish sensible rules for many complex fisheries and to bring social, economic and ethical dimensions into play  There are in many cases problems with determining where we are with respect to reference points or indicators.

4. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20044 The search for sustainable development Sustainable development is “development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (WCED, 1987).

5. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20045 Definition Sustainability  is to plan, develop and manage fisheries in a way that addresses the multiple needs and desires of society;  without jeopardising the options for future benefits from the full range of goods and services provided by marine ecosystems FAO 1999

6. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20046 Optimal use of natural resources The Economist’s point of view  Social importance implies the need for optimal use  Optimal use = maximization of flow of benefits from the resources over time  (Nota bene: market and non-market benefits)  Optimality is crucial  Anything else implies social waste

7. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20047 Optimal use and Sustainability  Optimal use may or may not imply sustainability  Renewable resources only  Optimality sometimes implies depletion  However…..  Maximum present value of benefits usually implies sustainability  Communities’ desire to last implies sustainability  International pressure for sustainable resource use Fishing communities become the custodians of their natural resources on behalf of the global community  Sustainability! Ragnar Árnason 2001

8. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20048 Several Nordic Fisheries are highly rated with respect to management  A recent book “The end of the line” by Charles Clover gives the Icelandic ITQ system 8 out of 10 points, the Faroese ITQE system 6 and Norway’s management of Barents sea cod 3  In a recent survey by the SAUP North Atlantic fisheries managements also gets high marks

9. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 20049 SAUP sustainability ranking

10. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200410 The purpose of regulating the exploitation of fishery resources  To establish long term sustainable frameworks which keep the impact of fisheries inside certain levels  Reduce the risk of avoidable and irreversible changes to the ecosystems  Create a basis for profitable fisheries the essential part being to “calibrate” the fishing fleets to the resource

11. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200411 Harvest control rules. What for ?  A cynic would say they are an attempt to move decisions on catch/effort levels out of annual political horse trading  A more favourable interpretation is that they are an attempt to agree on a medium or long term target for fisheries in advance  For shared and straddling stock the allocation problem is a prerequisite for establishing robust harvest control rules  Without proper implementation and enforcement – forget about it

12. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200412 NEAFC Medium and Long Term Management Plans  Management plans have been agreed by the relevant coastal states for  Norwegian spring spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring  Mackerel  Blue whiting  For the pelagic fishery for S. mentella there are no agreed common objectives and the same is the case for deep sea fisheries

13. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200413 Herring n 1. Every effort shall be made to maintain a level of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) greater than the critical level(B lim ) of 2 500 000 t. n 2. For the year 2001 and subsequent years, the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality rate of less than 0.125 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires modification of this fishing mortality rate.

14. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200414 Herring n 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 5 000 000 t (B pa ), the fishing mortality rate referred to under paragraph 2, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions to ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 5 000 000 t. The basis for such an adaptation should be at least a linear reduction in the fishing mortality rate from 0.125 at B pa (5 000 000 t) to 0.05 at B lim (2 500 000 t). n 4. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.

15. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200415 Mackerel n “For 2000 and subsequent years, the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality in the range of 0.15 - 0.20 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires modification of the fishing mortality rate.”

16. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200416 Mackerel n “Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 2 300 000 tonnes (B pa ), the fishing mortality rate, referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions prevailing. Such adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 2 300 000 tonnes.” 2 300 000 tonnes (B pa ), the fishing mortality rate, referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions prevailing. Such adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 2 300 000 tonnes.” n “The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.”

17. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200417 Blue Whiting n 1. Every effort shall be made to prevent the stock from falling below the minimum level of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) of 1 500 000 tonnes. n 2. For 2003 and subsequent years, the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality less than 0.32 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires modification of the fishing mortality rate.

18. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200418 Blue Whiting n 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 2 250 000 tonnes (B pa ) the fishing mortality rate, referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions then prevailing. Such an adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 2 250 000 tonnes. n 4. In order to enhance the potential yield, the Parties shall implement appropriate measures, which will reduce catches of juvenile blue whiting. n 5. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.

19. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200419 Features of the three plans  The mackerel plan starts with fishing mortality /fishing effort. The other start with Spawning Stock Biomass, but SSB status is the overriding concern  All three plans establish a level of fishing mortality which is consistent with long term spawning stock levels above B pa  The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.  This means under current annual regime checks every year of SSB levels and F levels.

20. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200420 Assessments AS Herring Fishing Mortality

21. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200421 Assessments AS Herring Spawning Stock Biomass

22. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200422 Assessments Blue whiting Fishing Mortality

23. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200423 Assessments Blue whiting Spawning stock Biomass

24. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200424 The State of the three stocks  The three stocks are different with respect to the robustness of the assessments and the regulation of the fisheries.  Especially blue whiting is a problem with respect to the assessments because of the lack of agreement on allocations and high varialbility in the scientific advice

25. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200425 Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at  Fish stock targets?  Economic targets?  General targets like sustainability?  What about the other users of the sea?

26. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200426 Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at Managing fisheries for sustainable development is a multi-dimensional and multi-level activity, which must deal with a wider range of considerations than survival of the fish stocks and the fisheries alone.. Changes to fisheries activity should be assessed with reference to the driving forces of economic and ecological change that bear on both the demand for and the supply of fish. These external forces will include competing claims on use and management of marine ecosystems. FAO

27. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200427 FAO approach

28. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200428 An example of economic targets from FAO n Objective : Economic efficiency; n Criteria : Capital productivity; n Indicator : Financial net return/capitalized value; T-TOC-TS/CV; n Scale: Fishery, by fleet segment, e.g. trawlers.

29. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200429 An example of economic targets from FAO II n Limit reference point: capital productivity at equilibrium as provided by a bio-economic model or raw estimates. It is thus assumed that total trawl fleet is calculated on the basis of a defined standard vessel, which implies that the fleet is equivalent to the sum of standard vessels. Total fleet is therefore equivalent to that of a single enterprise. n Target reference point: is set on the basis of a regional development policy in accordance with the reference point.

30. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200430 Economic Data Information Examples of dataSource of data Capitalized value (CV) Investment; replacement value of vessel; deprecia- tion rate; inflation index Banks, administration, Treasury, industry, boat- builders Turnover (T)Landings; prices Administration, auctions, processors, industry Total operation costs (TOC) Fuel consumption; wages; access fees Administration, industry, insurance companies Taxes and subsidies (TS) Value added tax; Taxes on income; fuel subsidies; interest refund Administration, Treasury, banks

31. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200431 Ecological and economic limits Economic limits Ecological limits

32. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200432 The present advisory hierarchy in the North Atlantic  Fish stocks Ecology  Ecosystems Ecology  Fishing fleets Technical interaction  Economy, but not based on science advice

33. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200433 What does the scientific advice really imply?  Is a harvest control rule a promise of a certain result i.e. if you maintain your spawning stock biomass above a certain level you will be guaranteed healthy stocks or if you keep your fishing mortality inside certain limits you will be guaranteed stable and profitable fisheries?  The doubt about what ecological based management plans and HCRs promise causes confidence problems.

34. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200434 The problem: How to measure compliance with the harvest control rule. Statisticians and economists cannot yet make accurate forecasts. Their guesses occasionally turn out to be quite wrong. Nonetheless, people insist that they do their best. Why? Because lack of any forecast usually itself involves an implicit forecast, and non-economists have an even worse long-run average score at making a forecast than do trained statistical economists. P. Samuelson, Economics 1980

35. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200435 How to measure compliance with the harvest control rule II  With the dominant reliance on stock assessments it is at best possible to make a firm statement that 5-6 years ago we adhered to HCR  That is not what we do. We use the notorious fickle predictions to establish where we are and determine corrective actions.

36. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200436 Would control of effort do better? n It would probably be easier and less demanding job to monitor fishing effort directly n However, if fishing effort is calculated as a function of certain vessel characteristics, outcomes are probably even more uncertain that the predictions of stock n If fishing effort is based on historical fishing power –or mortality power – of fleet segments the result may be different

37. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200437 Harvest control rules and integration of fisheries and environmental policies  Fisheries and their environmental impact (OSPAR)  Many commercial fish stocks are being exploited beyond their safe biological limit, or are being exploited within that limit to an extent that risks the limit being breached. By-catch of undersized or unwanted commercial species, mortality of non- target species, including benthic animals and marine mammals, and high levels of discards are continuing problems in many areas.

38. Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 200438 Some final remarks  Harvest control rules that secure moderate fishing pressures should ensure that ecosystems are not irreversible altered  Different industry sectors make use of the Ocean. User rights are in one way or another allocated to different user groups. These uses may conflict with and ruin the possibilities of other sectors  Healthy fisheries demand clean oceans and productive and resilient ecosystems  If property rights or limited access is introduced for one user group, but not for others, what are the consequences?

39. The end