1. Folie 1 Mature Convection: DLR activities presented by Caroline Forster DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Convection Working Group Meeting Landshut, Germany 8-10 October 2009

2. Folie 2 Detection, tracking, nowcasting of convective clouds and precipitation cells Operational for research purposes since spring 2008 Cb-TRAM METEOSAT: combination of HRV, IR, and WV 3 Cb development stages Nowcasting up to 60 minutes Rad-TRAM DWD radar composite 37 dBZ threshold Nowcasting up to 60 minutes

3. Folie 3 Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting POLDIRAD surface observations cloud tracker radar tracker lightning User-specified Target Weather Object TWO SYNPOLRAD local forecast ensemble forecast SYNRAD SYNSAT object comparison forecast validation Fusion Tracking Nowcast (0 -1 hrs) Forecast (1 - 6 hrs) TWO Integrated thunderstorm forecast system for the airports Munich and Frankfurt (DLR project "Wetter und Fliegen")

4. This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167. It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 4 Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009 Cb information for pilots Cb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR) 19.08.2008 14:05 UTC Cb top (orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink)

5. This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167. It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 5 Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009 19.08.2008 14:15 UTC Cb top (orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink) Cb information for pilots Cb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

6. This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167. It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 6 Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009 19.08.2008 14:25 UTC Cb top (orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink) Cb information for pilots Cb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

7. Folie 7 Vortragstitel example: ec-TRAM nowcasting map (detail) with cell contours, tracks and prognoses of an electrically charged ‚ec-cell‘. radar cell: Reflectivity map (blue shaded) cell track (white line), actual cell contour (white polygons), cell prognoses for 10 minutes (dark grey polygons), and 20 minutes (light grey polygons) lightning cell: discharge events clustered for 3 minutes (green crosses) actual cell (red polygon) ec-TRAM (Vera Meyer, PhD thesis) tracking and monitoring of electrically charged convective cells

8. Folie 8 Vortragstitel Probabilistic Nowcasting (Kirstin Kober, PhD thesis) Rad-TRAM-prob: 12.08.2007 23:15UTC 15min 30min60min

9. Folie 9 Vortragstitel lightning parameterisation in the COSMO-DE model (Johannes Dahl, PhD thesis) COSMO-DE model LINET observations

10. Folie 10 Vortragstitel

11. Folie 11 Convective Initiation: DLR activities presented by Caroline Forster DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Convection Working Group Meeting Landshut, Germany 8-10 October 2009

12. Folie 12 Cb-TRAM using METEOSAT-9 data (combination of HRV, IR, WV) case study 04.07.2006 yellow: onset of convection orange: rapid development red: mature thunderstorm grey: 15 and 30 Min. nowcast

13. This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167. It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 13 Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009 Cb initiation information for pilots Cb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR) 07.08.2008 13:29 UTC Cb top (cyan, blue, orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink) 07.08.2008 13:39 UTC Cb top (cyan, blue, orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink) 07.08.2008 13:49 UTC Cb top (cyan, blue, orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink) 07.08.2008 13:50 UTC Cb top (cyan, blue, orange) Cb bottom (yellow, pink)

14. Folie 14 Early detection of convection through a combination of different data sources (Dennis Stich, PhD thesis, just started on 28 September 2009) Goal:  to examine different data sources (satellite, surface obs, model data, radiosondes...) with regard to (typical) developments in the early initiation stage  to develop an algorithm that extends the nowcasting horizon to the early initiation stage by combining different data sources