1. Conclusion 1: Bringing it all Together

2. Participation forms for simulation due now Thursday’s class will start at 11:20 to give you time to complete the online class evaluation Thursday will be exam review. Come prepared with questions November 24, 2014 2

3. Agenda Final exam overview Course feedback Forest policy futures – Short term BC Liberal Future What if the NDP had won? Longer Term Barriers to more sustainable policy November 24, 2014 3

4. Final Exam December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC 1005 2 hour exam All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward Responsible for themes for whole course (final list discussed in class Thursday) Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from decision-making (October 28) forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle 4

5. Course Organization Forces at work framework Cases – Mountain Pine Beetle -> midterm timber supply – Forest carbon How government works Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources First Nations – Transformation of Governance International Context, US Influence Policy Cycle – Agenda-setting and Policy Formulation – Decision-making and Policy Design (FRPA) – Implementation (EBM-GBR) New Values: Carbon (and Bio-energy) Comparisons Barriers to change (today) November 24, 2014 5

6. What are the two most significant things you learned in this course? November 24, 2014 6

7. Most significant learnings 7

8. 8

9. Course Organization Forces at work framework Cases – Mountain Pine Beetle -> midterm timber supply – Forest carbon How government works Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources First Nations – Transformation of Governance International Context, US Influence Policy Cycle – Agenda-setting and Policy Formulation – Decision-making and Policy Design (FRPA) – Implementation (EBM-GBR) New Values: Carbon (and Bio-energy) Comparisons Barriers to change (today) November 24, 2014 9

10. What are the two things you most wanted to learn about that were missing? November 24, 2014 10

11. What’s missing? November 24, 2014 11

12. Future Directions Short term – BC Liberal Future – What if the NDP had won? Longer term

13. Christy Clark Forest Policy Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson Mandate letter

14. MFLNRO mandate letter (1)

15. MFLNRO mandate letter (2)

16. MFLNRO mandate letter (3)

17. Christy Clark Forest Policy Major Campbell initiatives that seem to be continued – Greenhouse gas reductions? Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG emissions – Aboriginal reconciliation signs of move away from treaty focus but that was underway Huge challenges in responding to Tsilhqot’in case

19. An almost NDP Future

20. NDP Platform New funds Expanded reforestation Updated inventory, more R&D on adaptation Restriction on log exports Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013- Web.pdf

21. Longer Term? Values What values will we be managing for? Resurgent commodities Carbon Bioenergy Biodiversity Recreation Aesthetics

22. Longer Term? Governance Governance Status quo Corporatization Privatization Decentralization Co-jurisdiction http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htm

23. Longer Term? Governance Governance Status quo Corporatization Privatization Decentralization Co-jurisdiction http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htm

24. BC Tenure apportioned by AAC Great sources for BC tenure data http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htmhttp://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htm

25. Policies for SFM (Luckert et al) SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future – Economic – Environmental – Social Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)

26. Policy obstacles (Luckert et al) Undue focus on sustained yield of timber Insufficiently comprehensive rights – Growing trees – Multiple timber species – Energy – Non-market Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC) Inefficient land use zoning Overly stringent regulation

27. Principles for Change Integrative management of jointly produced resources Flexibility Innovation Clarity

28. Barriers: Why aren’t we doing better? Intellectual – Value differences – Uncertainties Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo Decision rule that advantage opponents to change Institutional mismatch Path dependence

29. “once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)

30. Final theme Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

31. Participation forms for simulation due now Thursday’s class will start at 11:20 to give you time to complete the online class evaluation Thursday will be exam review. Come prepared with questions November 24, 2014 31