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A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. Student Debanjan Bandyopadhyay,

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Presentation on theme: "A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. Student Debanjan Bandyopadhyay,"— Presentation transcript:

1 A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. Student Debanjan Bandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student

2 What is an industrial hazard? Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur Toxic Release Fire Explosion

3  More than 150 industrial clusters in India have concentration of MAH industries;  Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an unplanned manner over time;  Such areas have also witnessed high growth of population over time;  Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a potential accident from MAH industries is very high; The Background

4  There are various ways to reduce risk to population in such MAH clusters:  Increase in levels of safety within industries through better management systems, technology and training to employees;  Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly attain control of a potential accident scenario;  Adoption of preventive measures through effective land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH industries; Risk Control / Prevention Measures

5  In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been weak in Urban / Industrial areas;  Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor industrial risk;  No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk as a consideration for Land Use Planning;  Planners do not have access to risk information ;  No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be translated into Land Use Planning criteria; The Concerns

6 How close would you authorise building a school near the two GPL spheres? How close would you like to live near the two LNG spheres? Industrial risk and Land use planning

7 To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning:  Selection of appropriate accident scenarios;  Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be employed;  Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability criteria;  Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and new installations; ?? Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…)

8 Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner; The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers; Some typical land-use patterns : –Planned residential –Industrial –Unplanned mix of residential, agricultural and rural Case study town: Haldia

9 Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 1960s – rural landuse 1970s – Port, IOC

10 Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 1980 & 90s – HPL, Exide, MCC PTA, IBP, HPCL, BPCL

11 Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.

12 1976 1981 1991 Till 2006 Temporal changes in Population

13 Objectives and Approach  To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking into account different potential accident scenarios from a cluster of MAH industries.  Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x Damage Factor −Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the entire Haldia planning area  Versatile approach, with scope for setting benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory bodies

14 Methodology  Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity at individual grid points as a result of industry specific hazard scenarios: -Setting up of reference scenarios based on Maximum Credible Loss Potential for each industry

15 Methodology  Step 1 : Continued  Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity -Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi -Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within 60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec) -Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH  Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3

16 Levels of Concern & Footprint generation Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia ) 210 mg/m3 100 mg/m3 50 mg/m3 Threshold value used

17 Methodology (contd…)  Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP = Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability  Hazard potential stands for a measure of likelihood of hazard that may be caused at a point x,y because of a particular accident  Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid point summed up for multiple scenarios as : HPs = ∑ HPi  Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized into category high, medium & low.

18 Methodology  Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor = pop density X quality of housing X sensitivity −pop density - calculated grid wise based on decimetric interpolation method −quality of housing - predominant nature of houses in grid - kutcha, mixed, brick/concrete −sensitivity - no. of sensitive receptors present in grid Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor

19 Thank you!


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