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A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. Student Debanjan Bandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student
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What is an industrial hazard? Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur Toxic Release Fire Explosion
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More than 150 industrial clusters in India have concentration of MAH industries; Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an unplanned manner over time; Such areas have also witnessed high growth of population over time; Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a potential accident from MAH industries is very high; The Background
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There are various ways to reduce risk to population in such MAH clusters: Increase in levels of safety within industries through better management systems, technology and training to employees; Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly attain control of a potential accident scenario; Adoption of preventive measures through effective land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH industries; Risk Control / Prevention Measures
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In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been weak in Urban / Industrial areas; Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor industrial risk; No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk as a consideration for Land Use Planning; Planners do not have access to risk information ; No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be translated into Land Use Planning criteria; The Concerns
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How close would you authorise building a school near the two GPL spheres? How close would you like to live near the two LNG spheres? Industrial risk and Land use planning
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To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning: Selection of appropriate accident scenarios; Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be employed; Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability criteria; Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and new installations; ?? Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…)
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Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner; The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers; Some typical land-use patterns : –Planned residential –Industrial –Unplanned mix of residential, agricultural and rural Case study town: Haldia
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Changes in Landuse Industrial development 1960s – rural landuse 1970s – Port, IOC
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Changes in Landuse Industrial development 1980 & 90s – HPL, Exide, MCC PTA, IBP, HPCL, BPCL
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Changes in Landuse Industrial development 2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.
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1976 1981 1991 Till 2006 Temporal changes in Population
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Objectives and Approach To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking into account different potential accident scenarios from a cluster of MAH industries. Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x Damage Factor −Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the entire Haldia planning area Versatile approach, with scope for setting benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory bodies
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Methodology Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity at individual grid points as a result of industry specific hazard scenarios: -Setting up of reference scenarios based on Maximum Credible Loss Potential for each industry
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Methodology Step 1 : Continued Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity -Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi -Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within 60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec) -Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3
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Levels of Concern & Footprint generation Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia ) 210 mg/m3 100 mg/m3 50 mg/m3 Threshold value used
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Methodology (contd…) Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP = Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability Hazard potential stands for a measure of likelihood of hazard that may be caused at a point x,y because of a particular accident Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid point summed up for multiple scenarios as : HPs = ∑ HPi Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized into category high, medium & low.
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Methodology Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor = pop density X quality of housing X sensitivity −pop density - calculated grid wise based on decimetric interpolation method −quality of housing - predominant nature of houses in grid - kutcha, mixed, brick/concrete −sensitivity - no. of sensitive receptors present in grid Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor
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Thank you!
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