1. SMART, Egypt Case Study Grenoble, Jan.,2005 Mohamed El Raey CEDARE

2. Abo Qir Bay Main constraints Severe shortage of institutional capabilities Unplanned urbanization Low quality water supply and salt water intrusion Very limited data availability

3. Objectives Identify and assess resources and constraints for development of the region Introduce an ICZM plan for development based on past changes and under the constraints of limited water quality Cooperate with other groups and stakeholders on development of modeling tools and data and experience exchange to involve decision makers

4. Achievements of the project 1. A general survey of ecological and socioeconomic conditions of the site, identifying resources, constraints and conflicts, problems and prospects for development, have been carried out. 2. A detailed, geo-referenced and accuracy assessed Spatial Data Base has been built. 3. Analysis and CORINE classification of satellite imagery for change detection has been carried out over the years 1990-1995-2000 and 2004 to identify and assess time series of land use changes (LUC model) 4. Time series of indicators of coastal water biophysical and bacteriological quality and fisheries have been collected and analysis is in progress 5. A Telemac Model of pollution transport over the area has been built. Model verification is in progress

7. Corine first level land cover classification(2004)

8. Corine second level classified image (2004)

9. Changes from 1990 to 1995

10. Changes between 1995 to 2000

11. Changes between 2000 to 2004

12. Total Changes Occurred Between 1990 to 2004

13. Total Erosion 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2004

14. Total Accretion 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2004

15. (after Nasr et al,2005)

16. Bathymetry of Abo Qir Bay for Telemac

17. Results of Suitability Analysis

18. Preliminary plan for development

19. Questionnaire/local dissemination Dual purpose: Collection and local dissemination of information. A NGO is involved as a user group to carry out person to person interview. Training of the NGO personnel has been carried out by SMART Team Stakeholders: – Farmers – Decision makers – Investors – Fishermen Aspects – Developmental strengths and weaknesses analysis – Pressures and constraints – Options for development – Policies and effectiveness – Required infrastructure

20. Major conflicts and potential relief 1.Recent discovery of gas reserves in the bay has prompted general policy to building huge gas liquefaction and petrochemical industries along the bay shore. The plan must include zones for industry, residential, tourism and agriculture 2.Water quality is still deteriorating due to salt water intrusion, soil transport is still in progress. Marine pollution is improving due to better industrial control. Water treatment plants and sewage systems are necessary for soil conservation, archeological sites protection and upgrading of health conditions. 3.Unplanned urbanization and building of resort villages without consideration for the needed infrastructure is still progressing. A strong institutional capabilities in monitoring and assessment is necessary for law enforcement. 4.Low income, shortage of awareness and high unemployment rates are the main driving forces. Planned industrial and tourism development, building a Marina and revival of fishing industries may be possible relief for upgrading conditions.

21. Major conflicts ( Contin.) 5. A severe problem of excessive solid waste on both the domestic and agricultural sectors. A solid waste disposal and management plan that involves establishment of a compost plant, is necessary. 6. Problems of storage, transportation and marketing of products have been limiting income. This has forced many to abandon fruit and palm tree cultivation, causing loss of biodiversity and income of farming. Cultivation of new salt tolerant species, establishing of marketing institutions and paving necessary roads would greatly improve conditions. 7. Conflicts exist among various administrative authorities concerning aspects of development and overlapping administrative authorities e.g. a. fisheries and water resources authorities over fish cages in the Nile b. Division of abo Qir bay among Governorates of Alexandria and Behaira c. Division of low elevation area south of the bay between the two Governorates

23. Work In progress and planned 1. A questionnaire survey has been prepared to disseminate and collect information and identify policy problems and constraints 2. An integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) plan for development of the region based on scenario and multi-sectoral criteria analysis of GIS is presented and is under investigation by the team. 3. Corine third level classification and change detection analysis is in progress. 4. A Telemac Model for identifying and assessing pollution distribution has been built and verification is in progress. 5. LUC model has been tried and work is in progress to apply it for the case study using results of change detection over the nineties. 6. Analysis of time series of selected indicators of water quality and water related diseases is planned.