1. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology João Pedro Gouveia, Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas ， Energy ， 2012 1

2. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Content 2. Questions 3. Methods 4. Results 5. Conclusion 1.Introduction 2

3. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University  Projections of energy demand are important for energy security supply and low carbon futures, and usually rely on final energy consumption trends methods, limiting the opportunity for future options. Methods supported by energy services are much preferred to estimate future energy demand, since they are better suited to accomplish end-users needs. Final energy can then be assessed through complementary tools, as technological models, resulting in deeper knowledge on the relation between energy services and technology options.  This paper presents a bottom-up methodology to project detailed energy end- uses demand in the Portuguese residential buildings until 2050, aiming to identify the parameters governing energy services demand uncertainty, through a sensitivity analysis. The partial equilibrium TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model was used to assess technology options and final energy needs for the range of parameters variations for each end-use, allowing to conclude on the impact of uncertainty of energy services demand in final energy. Introduction 3

4. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Two steps:  Applying a bottom-up methodology to project ESD for the different end-uses of the residential sector, namely space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting, cooking, refrigeration and electric appliances. A Reference scenario (REF) was built, serving as a benchmark for the analysis of future ESD.(140)  Selecting a set of 21 scenarios corresponding to the highest and lowest variation of each parameter for each end-use plus the REF, serving as input for the technological optimization model TIMES_PT to estimate final energy demand and technology portfolio. Questions 5

5. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Methods 6 1)Space heating and cooling

6. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Methods 6 2) Water heating 3) Cooking 4) Refrigeration and washing machines 5) Lighting 6) Other Electric

7. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Sensitive analysis

8. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Results 7 Reference scenario The estimates of the ESD for Reference scenario show an increase of almost 80% in 2050 compared to 20 05 values, near 1.3%/year.

9. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Results 7 Reference scenario Twenty ESD scenarios corresponding to the highest and lowest impact from each parameter for each end-use were considered as input for TIMES_PT model to assess its impact on final energy consumption.

10. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Conclusion  This paper presents a bottom-up methodology to compute ESD in the residential buildings up to 2050. This research aims to increase the knowledge on households ’ energy consumption profile in southwestern European region. Moreover, the research carried out in this paper allows for an improved understanding on the data of several parameters that drive the ESD in Portugal, avoiding the use of approximate values as in a study for the European house-holds.  The case study results show that the demand for energy services will continue to increase in the long run (mainly cooling and lighting) due to the expected increase of thermal comfort levels and use of equipment. The introduction of buildings climate regulation with insulation rules, the compliance of energy efficiency policies and the substitution of a significant proportion of appliances, implies that the increase of ESD does not induce a similar increase of final energy consumption. 8

11. College of Management & Economics, Tianjin University Thank you! 9