1. Regional Haze Modeling RPO Update Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM National RPO Meeting, Dallas, TX December 3, 2002

2. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Draft Modeling Workplan Two Phase Approach: Phase I -- build capacity within MANE-VU and educate ourselves with respect to available analytical tools and techniques Phase II -- specifically focused tasks on providing high quality data products in support of SIP planning efforts Technical Support

3. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Phase I “Practice modeling” designed to answer questions like:

4. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Right Model for the Right Job: REMSAD vs. CMAQ? Comparison of REMSAD and CMAQ to IMPROVE

5. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan How do the models perform? Performance Evaluation Statistical Measures Operational Evaluation Diagnostic Evaluation Mechanistic Evaluation Probabilistic Evaluation All are important for a comprehensive evaluation of a model’s performance

6. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan What Domain? National (based on RPO projection: D01 = 108km; D02 = 36km)

7. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan What Domain? Western Domain Eastern Domain

8. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan What Model Resolution? Annual versus episodic (tradeoff with computation time) Simulated Year? How many vertical layers and where? Nesting: where? Implications for met. and emissions? Limits of physical parameterizations Avoid mismatch between met. and air quality model resolutions!!

9. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Met. and Emissions? MM5, RAMS? SMOKE, EMS95, EMS2000? Performance evaluation of both

10. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Accuracy and Precision? “ Performance criteria for peak, bias and error statistics should be developed by a group of competent atmospheric scientists and policy analysts.” -AER performance evaluation guidance

11. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Accuracy and Precision? 1 part per trillion (ppt) for ozone and 1 ng/m 3 for particles have been suggested as appropriate values of threshold precision to explore. – These values were suggested as appropriate at the LADCO/TNRCC Linux Computing Workshop, Austin, Texas, March 25-27, 2002.

12. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Technical Memorandum #5: REMSAD Platform Intercomparison Experiments SAI provides REMSAD V6.3 input and output (24-hour simulation) on its native platform (DEC Alpha Workstation) Ported code to NYDEC Sun Workstation, NESCAUM Linux PC, NESCAUM Windows PC Compared output for Linux-DEC, Sun- DEC, and Linux-Sun.

13. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan

15. Linux - DEC

16. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan SUN - DEC

17. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Linux - SUN

18. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Relative Differences (%)

19. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan What is the optimal precision metric? Absolute thresholds seem to unnecessarily penalize species with high mass concentration Normalized thresholds (e.g. 10 -4 times the standard  0.65ng/m3 for PM 2.5 ) How do we deal with outliers? Does every grid cell need to meet the threshold?

20. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Phase II Encompassed in detailed tasks outlined in MANE-VU Technical Support Workplan

21. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan Elements of Technical Workplan Emissions Meteorology Modeling Monitoring and Data Analysis Documentation Technical Training, Outreach, and Management

22. MANE-VU Modeling Workplan